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We’ve arrived at the final of the Australian Open. Rafael Nadal will be take aim at his 21st Grand Slam title and take on a familiar opponent in Daniil Medvedev. Let’s get into how to bet this one.
Rafael Nadal (+150) vs. Daniil Medvedev (-189)
The head-to-head here tells a very different story than the one I think will transpire on the court. Nadal enters 3-1 in his life against Medvedev, dating back to their first meeting at the Rogers Cup in 2019.
A lot has changed since then. First of all, Medvedev isn’t nearly the player he was in 2019 — he’s grown in confidence and his defensive skills have only gotten sharper. Second, it’s only gotten more and more difficult for Nadal through the years.
Later in 2019 he’d go five sets with Medvedev in a match where the Russian nearly erased a double break in the decider to take it. Then, he’d fall behind 5-1 in the deciding set at the ATP Finals before negative emotions (and progressive fatigue) got the best of Medvedev, who would fail to serve the match out twice. Finally, at the 2020 ATP Finals, Medvedev would win handily.
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This just isn’t a good matchup for Nadal. He thrives on being the best defensive player on the floor with his incredible digs winning him crucial points. Medvedev is a better defender and his reads should neutralize Nadal’s ability to find angles and put the ball where his opponent can’t get it on the full stretch.
Medvedev’s expert returning will also make it very difficult for Nadal to get free points on his first serve and serve his way out of trouble, something that’s been increasingly important as he ages.
Nadal simply hasn’t been 100% sharp in this tournament, either. He’s made some uncharacteristic backhand errors, which helped Denis Shapovalov get his teeth into their quarterfinal encounter, and he’s seen a significant drop in level after the first set which helped Karen Khachanov and Matteo Berrettini steal sets off of him.
There is simply no stopping Medvedev right now, and he should be relatively fresh entering this match. He did go five with Felix Auger-Aliassime, but he’s hardly played points on his service games with the success he’s had starting off points. I expect Nadal to fall behind and fail to produce the energy needed for a comeback.
Edge: Medvedev -2.5 Games
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