The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
We’ve made it to the final of the Miami Open on the men’s side. Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud will duke it out for $1,231,245 in prize money and a coveted 1000 ranking points. With a victory, Alcaraz will be knocking on the door of the top 10. Meanwhile, Ruud can inch closer to No. 6 in the world if he’s to prevail. With so much at stake, let’s get down to it.
Carlos Alcaraz (-304) vs. Casper Ruud (+230)
As anticipated as this match is, we’ve already seen these two duke it out. In fact, these two played on both’s preferred surface when they met last year in Marbella, Spain. Of course, Alcaraz had home court advantage in that one, but he was also a far worse player than he is today. In early 2021, he was losing to the likes of Mikael Ymer, Tallon Griekspoor and even Marco Trungelliti at the Challenger level.
At the current moment, however, it seems impossible to see Alcaraz losing to anyone not named Novak, Rafa or Daniil. Even then, he’d probably have a fair shot. The fact of the matter is, this 18-year-old is truly one of the four best players in the world at the moment and has already taken out World No. 5, World No. 6 and World No. 7, Ruud, as noted above. As time goes on, he’ll continue knocking off these players given his superior skill and competition level.
Editor’s Note: NBC Sports Predictor: Play for FREE and win huge jackpots up to $100,000! Download the app today.
In addition to that, who’s to say Alcaraz won’t have home court advantage here in Miami? The crowds have been infatuated with him all week long, chanting his name and going wild for his incredible points. You can’t say the same for Ruud, who was clearly not the favorite of the spectators when he played Francisco Cerundolo in the semifinals.
With all that said, this tennis match doesn’t really seem to suit Ruud either. He dealt with some incredible nerves in the first set of his semifinal, and if not for a timely break late in the frame may have crumbled under the pressure. He’s never been in a match this big, and if that semifinal — where he was missing routine forehands and making an inordinate amount of unforced errors — is any indication, he’s going to be up against it.
We’ve also seen the Ruud backhand be a major liability in the last few matches, after he used it to his advantage against Cam Norrie. It’s always been something of a weakness, and Alcaraz should go to town on it. Miomir Kecmanovic and Hubert Hurkacz were able to play close matches because they didn’t make many errors off of both wings and show a weakness, and they also served incredibly well. While Ruud’s serve has improved, Cerundolo proved it wasn’t untouchable.
Alcaraz should go to work with his heavy cross-court forehand to the Ruud backhand and win all backhand trades given the pace he hits that shot with. While the Ruud forehand is dangerous, I’m not sure Alcaraz will leave himself exposed and give him an easy short ball to put away, and given the nerves that we saw it’s not a certainty he’d produce a winner even with a short ball.
Finally, on top of all of this, Ruud did take a medical timeout during the Zverev match, where he appeared to be dealing with a foot issue or perhaps a blister. With that, and a flat performance against Cerundolo, I think it’s safe to say he gets rolled over in two sets here.
Edge: Alcaraz 2-0 (-125)
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
