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We’re into what is by far the strangest part of the tennis calendar — the second clay-court swing. While some players, namely those from North America, are resting up in preparation for the big hardcourt swing, others are duking it out on the dirt in Europe.
With two tournaments taking place simultaneously, there are plenty of ways to make money. Let’s get into some bets.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-150) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+122)
It’s unfathomable that Musetti is the underdog here to Davidovich Fokina after the match he played on Wednesday. The Italian was simply sublime, playing an excellent defender in Emil Ruusuvuori who got just about every ball back only to get pummeled from the baseline.
Musetti will find a similar matchup here in Davidovich Fokina, who makes a name for himself by chasing down balls and mixing it up with his opponents. It’s not a game that’s very different than Ruusuvuori’s, however, and it should be said that the Spaniard is in far worse shape.
Davidovich Fokina had one great run in Monte Carlo this season, and the rest has been very disappointing. On the whole, he’s 11-7 on clay at all levels while Musetti is 17-6. The Italian is really playing some special tennis while Davidovich Fokina has been gifted a couple of wins in a row, and I’d believe in Musetti’s form right now.
Edge: Musetti +122
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Casper Ruud (-371) vs. Jaume Munar (+275)
There was once a time where Ruud needed to win the smaller ATP 250 events to achieve a high ranking, but those days are no more. The Norwegian is comfortably inside the top 10 in the world and has little reason to bother giving his best at this small tournament.
Don’t take my word for it, though, look at how Ruud has played this year. He crashed out of Bastad just a week ago and has piled up some early-round losses on the dirt to Dusan Lajovic and Botic Van De Zandschulp. The fact is, Ruud can rest on his performance from Roland Garros and coast until the big tournaments on the North American hardcourts, where he has a lot to prove.
Munar, meanwhile, has everything to play for here. He is on the cusp of a true breakthrough and gets to play on his favorite surface in favorable conditions at altitude. He’s won five of his last six matches and can say he went three sets with Ruud the last time they played, which was on the dirt in 2018.
I’m just not seeing an incredibly high level from Ruud right now, and think he is vulnerable here against a hard-worker on clay who will force some errors out of his racquet.
Edge: Munar +4.5 Games
