Welcome to MLB DFS Bargains. We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
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We have 14 games on the docket for this evening.
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DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS
Homer Bailey – SP – Kansas City Royals (vs White Sox)
Let it be known that Bailey is one of the worst pitchers in the slate. Let also be known that the White Sox offense is strikeout prone and rarely draws walks. They’re volatile by design. Despite an ugly 6.05 ERA, Bailey actually has a few things working in his favor. He’s increased his swinging strike rate by throwing a career-high of splitters. This has led to 8.51 K/9 and 4.09 BB/9. Although he’s prone to hard contact, Kauffman Stadium may help him to keep the ball in the yard. There are roughly eight pitchers who are worse than Bailey tonight, and they all cost more to roster. There are plausible outcomes where he earns the win bonus with six strikeouts over five innings.
Jack Mayfield – 2B – Houston Astros (vs Gabriel Ynoa)
With Carlos Correa and Aledmys Diaz on the shelf, the Astros summoned career minor leaguer Mayfield. He actually profiles to be a reasonably decent player once he adjusts to the majors. In Triple-A, he experienced a power breakout – likely due to the use of the juiced major league ball. He also improved his plate discipline. He has just two hits through 28 major league plate appearances. One of those was a home run. Most of his struggles can be traced to a .053 BABIP, a figure bound to regress. The Houston offense should be expected to go wild tonight.
Chris Taylor – 2B – Los Angeles Dodgers (at Drew Pomeranz)
Taylor cracks the Dodgers lineup anytime they’re facing a southpaw. He usually bats leadoff. Since putting a cold start to the season behind him, he’s hitting .280/.337/.524. It’s close to a luck neutral performance and within preseason expectations. Taylor doesn’t actually have a history of platoon mashing; this is simply the best way the Dodgers have to work him into the lineup. Pomeranz has coughed up an 8.08 ERA in 10 starts.
Christin Stewart – OF – Detroit Tigers (vs Michael Pineda)
Stewart is finally starting to look comfortable after an array of fits and starts and injuries. He’s a bargain power source set to face homer prone Pineda. The Twins reclamation project has allowed 2.14 HR/9. While Stewart has only four home runs in 167 plate appearances, he possesses all the fundamentals of a regular 30 home run threat.
Also Consider: Travis Shaw, Rowdy Tellez, Jason Kipnis, Eloy Jimenez, Cavan Biggio
MID-TIER MUST PLAYS
Nelson Cruz – OF – Minnesota Twins (at Matthew Boyd)
As daily fantasy regulars, it has probably not escaped your attention that the Twins are the most powerful team in the league – at least as measured by home run totals. They’ve accomplished their recent surge up the standings without the assistance of Cruz. He returned to action on Tuesday and homered on Wednesday. As with my standing recommendation for Khris Davis (he’s listed below), you should strongly consider rostering Cruz any time his price tag leaves the stratosphere. He’s always a top target for multiple home runs. A matchup against Boyd is at least modestly difficult, although there’s a Tigers bullpen to prey upon later.
Also Consider: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel, Brandon Woodruff, Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Nelson Cruz
HIGH PRICED VALUES
Jacob deGrom – SP – New York Mets (vs Rockies)
At least on one of the two main DFS platforms, deGrom figures to be hugely popular. He’s priced around mid-tier pitchers like Andrew Heaney, Domingo German, and Lance Lynn. He’s only the eighth-most expensive arm despite arguable the top projection in the slate. Gerrit Cole is the other candidate, but he costs $2,800 more.
One might think deGrom was visiting Coors Field with this price. Nope. He’s at CitiField. The Rockies offense has a 74 wRC+ when playing on the road. This is also one of the most pitcher friendly venues in the league. While deGrom hasn’t matched his superb 2018 campaign, he remains one of the five or 10 best pitchers in the league. This tastes like chalk.
Also Consider: J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuna
