Welcome to MLB DFS Bargains. We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
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Fourteen games are in the main slate tonight.
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DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS
Yusei Kikuchi – SP – Seattle Mariners (vs Detroit Tigers)
Kikuchi is having an ugly season. Two factors seem to be to blame – a decrease in velocity and a tough schedule. The former problem shows no signs of abating. Fortunately, he’s set to face some easier opponents starting with the Tigers tonight. While the Detroit lineup isn’t helpless against southpaws, they’re still a below average unit. A solid six inning outing with four strikeouts is all that’s required for Kikuchi to return plentiful value on his low-price tag. His opponent, Daniel Norris, has a very similar use case.
Zach Green – 3B – San Francisco Giants (at Joey Lucchesi)
Lucchesi is well-known to have issues with right-handed hitters. The Giants have no shortage of righties to plop in the lineup. Green is filling in at third base where he’s liable to post Gallo-ian strikeout rates along with prodigious power. In 264 Triple-A plate appearances, he popped 23 big flies in 264 plate appearances. He also posted a 32.6 percent strikeout rate. Green costs the minimum and has around a one-in-four chance for a home run.
Joey Wendle – 2B/3B – Tampa Bay Rays (at Jacob Waguespack)
Did you think Wendle was going to bat .150 forever? A slow start to the season and multiple injuries have ruined Wendle’s 2019 campaign. He’s showing some signs of awakening from his slumber. Over his last eight games (six starts), he’s batting .333/.417/.476 with three doubles and more walks than strikeouts. This is more like the Wendle from last season. He’s still batting near the bottom of the lineup, but it looks like he’s warming up just in time to retain his job. Waguespack is one of the weakest pitchers in tonight’s slate.
Jonathan Villar – 2B/SS – Baltimore Orioles (at Griffin Canning)
Both the Angels and Orioles bullpens are gassed after an endless game last night. Canning is a fly ball pitcher with a home run problem whereas Villar is a ground ball hitter who occasionally lays into a high pitch. There’s potential for a home run here to go with multiple hits and/or stolen bases. This isn’t the sharpest bargain play (that’s Green), but Villar should offer more reliable output to go with his higher price tag.
Also Consider: Daniel Norris, Daniel Mengden, Humberto Arteaga, Jace Peterson, Ji-Man Choi, Chris Davis, John Hicks, Miguel Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario, Sam Travis
MID-TIER MUST PLAYS
Alex Verdugo – OF – Los Angeles Dodgers (at Anibal Sanchez)
Since making an adjustment earlier in the season, Sanchez has been an effective if unimpressive pitcher. Tonight’s outing is liable to be a brief return to his April struggles. The Dodgers offense is tenacious. Sanchez has also had issues with left-handed hitters. Los Angeles will flood their lineup with lefties including Verdugo. The 23-year-old offers a little bit of everything. He usually puts the ball in play with a high line drive rate and enough power to matter. Sanchez is a fly ball pitcher and Verdugo is one of the rare Dodgers who hits more grounders than flies. The matchup favors the hitter.
Also Consider: Nate Lowe, Tommy Pham, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Austin Meadows
HIGH PRICED VALUES
Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels (vs Asher Wojciechowski)
For a second straight day, Trout is projected to perform more like a typical pitcher than a hitter. He’s both the top bat and one of the best dollar-for-dollar values. Interestingly, Wojciechowski appears to be in the midst of a breakout. He’s a fly ball pitcher who has developed an effective cutter. Through 23 innings, he’s posted 12.13 K/9. This will be a tough challenge for two reasons. The Angels lineup is resistant to strikeouts. Further, Wojciechowski appears prone to allowing hard contact and too many homers (career 1.77 HR/9). Trout has an over-40 percent chance to go yard. If there’s a reason to avoid any Los Angeles hitter, it’s that they’re coming off a 16-inning marathon. They may be tired.
Also Consider: Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna, Peter Alonso
