Friday night MLB DFS is here, and that means a full slate of games to choose from.
As always, be sure to remember the heavy variance that comes with baseball and to be very aware of your bankroll management. Additionally, the RotoGrinders MLB lineups page and push notifications are the best way to get all team lineups in a timely manner.
Now, let’s dig in to find some top FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy baseball picks.
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Pitcher
Zack Wheeler (vs. Miami Marlins)
The top two pitchers that stand out tonight are Justin Verlander and Zack Wheeler. You’re going to get a very similar projection on both of these guys on most sites. The difference is there is quite a discount on Wheeler in terms of salary. He gets a great matchup against Miami, a team I pointed out last week was dead last in baseball in runs scored per game. That is a bad offense that you can stream starting pitchers against every time. In addition to the matchup, Wheeler has looked very good lately, having given up six earned runs over his last three starts while racking up 25 strikeouts. In two of those three outings he hit double-digit strikeouts. Wheeler is my preferred option to spend up on at pitcher tonight.
Others to Consider: Justin Verlander, Domingo German
Catcher/First Base
Justin Bour (vs. Baltimore Orioles)
Either Justin Bour or Albert Pujols will be in the lineup tonight for Los Angeles with first base eligibility, and I want to take a piece of this Angels team against Dan Straily. Mike Trout is super expensive, as are a couple of his teammates, so I’m looking for a way to get some exposure to this lineup while still staying within a budget. One of the Angels first basemen will do the trick. Over the last two seasons, Straily has a low 17.4% strikeout rate and a high 9.8% walk rate. His xFIP over that timeframe is 5.54, and 44.2% of the contact against him is of the hard-hit variety. He’s bad against both left-handers and right-handers. Choosing a couple of hitters that surround Trout in the lineup is a good way to get some high upside bats in your lineup against a bad pitcher, at minimal cost.
Others to Consider: Rhys Hoskins, Max Muncy
Second Base
Jose Altuve (vs. Texas Rangers)
Lance Lynn has been a respectable pitcher in his career, but he’s nothing that we fear when picking hitters. The Houston Astros lineup can put up runs in bunches and tonight have a massive 5.4 implied run total at home against Texas. Jose Altuve comes in at an affordable price across the major sites, and his numbers against right-handers have been solid in recent history. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, Altuve has a .362 wOBA against righties while only striking out 14% of the time and walking 9.6% of the time. He also has a reputation as one of the best fastball hitters in the game of baseball, and taking a look at Lynn’s numbers shows me that he throws either a fastball, cutting fastball or sinking fastball over 90% of the time. The Astros should be able to put up some runs on the board tonight, and Altuve should be one of the leaders in this offense.
Others to Consider: Jonathan Villar, Cesar Hernandez
Third Base
Jose Ramirez (vs. Oakland Athletics)
We’re getting a good discount on Jose Ramirez tonight because he had early-season struggles back in April. I’m willing to take advantage of the mispricing to get a stud hitter in my lineup tonight. The numbers this season are small sample and they are skewed due to the early struggles, but Ramirez has regained form recently, and when we look at last year’s numbers they are off the charts. Against right-handers in 2018, Ramirez racked up an astonishing 17.8% walk rate while only striking out 12.3% of the time. That’s unheard of. His ISO last season against right-handers was .315, which would be a solid wOBA for some of the mediocre hitters out there. The matchup is more or less neutral and the ballpark isn’t great, but this is a great hitter at a discounted price, so I’m willing to take a chance on him in my lineups tonight.
Others to Consider: Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman
Shortstop
Corey Seager (vs.Washington Nationals)
Seager is a very talented hitter in this Los Angeles lineup, one who has struggled over the last couple of seasons with injuries. It feels like he starting to get over some of those injuries and it’s resulting in a decent start to the season. What we want in DFS is home runs, and Seager provides that opportunity every time he comes up to the plate, as he has a team-leading 50.8% flyball rate against right-handers this season to go with a solid 38.1% hard-hit rate. Hitting the ball hard and in the air is how we get the ball out of the ballpark. At only $3,700 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel, we are getting an appealing price on a power hitting shortstop in a great lineup.
Others to Consider: Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor
Outfield
J.D. Martinez (vs. Seattle Mariners)
Sticking with the theme of hitters that are underpriced, J.D. Martinez is a guy we are getting a discount on based on some early-season struggles. That’s causing his price tag to come in around that third tier of hitters in the outfield, when his on-the-field production puts him in the first tier. Boston takes on a new face in the Seattle rotation tonight, so we don’t know what to expect from the new kid, but last season against right-handers Martinez cracked a .315 ISO and .444 wOBA. He also led this team with a 45.8% hard-hit rate. Based on the discount I’m getting, this is the first outfielder I’m inserting into my lineups tonight.
Joc Pederson (vs. Washington Nationals)
This Los Angeles Dodgers offense just keeps producing big numbers while flying under the radar of DFS stacks, usually because they don’t start their games until later in the night. Tonight, the opposing pitcher is Anibal Sanchez, who has struggled with a .288 ISO and .405 wOBA against right-handers this season. Meanwhile, Joc Pederson sits in the leadoff spot for this powerful Dodgers lineup and has a massive 51% hard-hit rate and .402 ISO in 106 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this year. The most impressive part is that he has cut down his strikeout rate to only 18.9%, as that was his Achilles’ heel in years past. Due to the fact that this Dodgers lineup is usually highly under-owned in tournaments, this is my favorite stack of the night.
Others to Consider: David Peralta, Kole Calhoun
