We survived the deadline! My colleague George Bissell has a very thorough review of all the action. So long as the league abides by The One True Deadline, these micro reliever moves will always dominate the final day of the trading season. For all the hullabaloo, only six teams made changes which affect the ninth inning role – the Braves, Tigers, Rangers, Mariners, Marlins, and Rays.
Atlanta was busy, acquiring Shane Greene from Detroit, Chris Martin from Texas, and former closer Mark Melancon from the Giants. Luke Jackson has struggled recently. He’ll be (temporarily) bumped back to middle relief. All indications are that Greene will serve as the regular closer. With a dodgy track record, don’t be surprised if there’s some movement here.
By trading their nominal closers to the Braves, the Tigers and Rangers will turn to Joe Jimenez and Jose Leclerc respectively. Jimenez offers tantalizing skills including 12.64 K/9 and 3.64 BB/9. However, a career 5.75 ERA simply isn’t getting the job done. Now in his third season, Jimenez has been hampered by an absurdly high 1.93 HR/9 rate. As for Leclerc, he was a top closer in 2018 before losing feel for his splitter over the winter. Every time he looks to be getting back on track, he turns in a clunker. His latest disaster occurred on July 28.
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The two Florida teams swapped late-inning components. Nick Anderson will go to Tampa where he’ll have his matchups carefully managed. That will likely include at least one-third of the Rays save opportunities. In Miami, a three-headed committee of Jarlin Garcia, Jose Quijada, and Tayron Guerrero is expected to emerge. However, new acquisition Ryne Stanek is on the rehab trail and could also factor into the ninth inning. Despite spicy stuff, Quijada and Guerrero lack the necessary command to be reliable late-inning relievers. Garcia, by contrast, is a bland-but-effective ground ball pitcher. Stanek’s 98 mph fastball and decent 3.40 ERA suggest he’s the best man for the job.
Predictably, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto found a way to participate in the trade action by swapping out Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland. That leaves Anthony Bass and Austin Adams (currently injured) as the next best options. The Nationals deserve an honorable mention for bolstering their bullpen. Sean Doolittle’s role remains safe.
From a closer perspective, this deadline was also defined by non-trades. Most surprisingly, the Giants traded four relievers, none of whom were Will Smith. Elbow inflammation prevented the Blue Jays from dealing Ken Giles. The Pirates stuck by their lofty ask of Gavin Lux for Felipe Vazquez. San Diego never discovered a fit for Kirby Yates. Cincinnati, Chicago, and Baltimore didn’t find matches for Raisel Iglesias, Alex Colome, or Mychal Givens. The Royals apparently refused to include salary relief with Ian Kennedy AND they wanted a prospect in return. So while things have been shaken up, it could have been so much worse!
With trade talk out of the way, shall we go to the tiers?
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Tier 1: The Upper Elite (2)
Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres
Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
Hader took the loss on Monday after allowing a solo home run. For those counting at home, all 13 of his earned runs have come via homer (1.73 HR/9). It’s a good thing he’s so filthy or else the Brewers would have bumped him from the ninth inning.
Tier 2: The Lower Elite (9)
Felipe Vazquez, Pittsburgh Pirates
Roberto Osuna, Houston Astros
Will Smith, San Francisco Giants
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Brad Hand, Cleveland Indians
Ken Giles, Toronto Blue Jays
Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals
Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Craig Kimbrel, Chicago Cubs
It’s a bad sign that Giles has been thrice afflicted with elbow inflammation this season. A more serious injury is starting to feel inevitable. Unfortunately, there isn’t much behind him in the Toronto bullpen. David Phelps was starting to look interesting, but he and Daniel Hudson were sent packing on Wednesday. We’ll have to hope Giles can recover.
Diaz’s homer-plagued season continued. He allowed three runs over 2.2 innings including a pair of solo homers. In addition to 1.93 HR/9, hitters have also managed a .394 BABIP. It’s no surprise he wasn’t traded – it was always unlikely a buyer would be willing to look past these blemishes. Even so, this looks more like fluky bad luck than a loss of talent. I’m buying Diaz shares.
Kimbrel has hammed with an ugly blown save on Saturday. He allowed three runs on a pair of homers and a walk. He failed to record an out. He recovered with a slightly stressful save on Wednesday. Doolittle also had a date with the homer fairy, allowing a solo blast in each of his last two appearances. He was saddled with the loss on Wednesday.
Tier 3: Core Performers (7)
Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
Liam Hendriks, Oakland Athletics
Hansel Robles, Los Angeles Angels
Shane Greene, Atlanta Braves
Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals
Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds
Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals
Chapman’s command woes have continued. Since June 23 he’s allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 11.2 innings. The walks have been especially pernicious of late – he’s walked nine over his last five innings. A demotion is looking more and more likely. In the past, these have proven to be very temporary. He’ll likely recover his job as soon as he rebounds. And to be clear, there’s nothing official yet to say he’s out of the ninth inning.
Continuing a leaguewide theme of closers slumping in late-July, Hendriks has run into trouble lately. His last four appearances include four runs in 3.1 innings. Despite the woes, his strikeout rate remains robust. Everything is fine. We can’t get too comfortable with Hendriks because Blake Treinen (and Joakim Soria) are still in this bullpen.
Iglesias was on the hot seat when we last convened. He’s since turned in three clean saves. By surviving the trade deadline as the sitting closer of the Royals, Kennedy earned a bump to the third tier. His stats – including 10.76 K/9, 2.23 BB/9, and a 3.25 ERA - have clearly supported the move for some time. However, a trade seemed all-but-guaranteed. I guess you can’t predict baseball.
Tier 4: Mess Hall (7)
Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies
Alex Colome, Chicago White Sox
Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, Minnesota Twins
Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Emilio Pagan, Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo, Tampa Bay Rays
Jose Leclerc, Texas Rangers
Wade Davis, Scott Oberg, Colorado Rockies
Neris is headed out on a three-game suspension. More importantly, he’s allowed just one hit and no walks over his last six appearances. Slump appearance to be complete.
The Twins have added to their bullpen committee with Romo and Sam Dyson. Rogers may be the preferred option for now, but it won’t take much for this to mutate back into a three-headed headache for fantasy owners.
Speaking of reliever hydras, the Rays will seemingly never give us the satisfaction of picking one guy for the ninth inning. Anderson has the most talent of the collective, but he was inconsistent in Miami. In particular, he struggled to silence left-handed hitters. As such, expect more careful platoon work on the part of the Rays.
Bradley earned his first save of the season on Monday. After a slow start to the season, he has pitched well of late. Since late June, he’s held opponents scoreless to go with 13.86 K/9 and 4.38 BB/9 in 12.1 innings.
Davis was dinged for five runs on two home runs last night. He now has an 11.68 ERA at Coors Field and a 0.68 ERA on the road. Even if the Rockies continue to use him over Oberg, fantasy owners should platoon him based on location.
