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There hasn’t yet been any sign of Shane Baz in St. Pete, but the Rays are finally calling up outfielder Josh Lowe after an outstanding season at Triple-A Durham. The 23-year-old hit .282/.369/.540 with 21 homers and was a perfect 24-for-24 stealing bases in his 98 games. The Cardinals’ Juan Yepez and the Jays’ Kevin Smith were the only prospects to outhit him in AAA-East this year.
Lowe was a third baseman when the Rays made him the 13th overall pick in the 2016 draft, but he moved to the outfield the next year and has primarily played center field since. His power came along in 2019, when he hit 18 homers in Double-A, but he was just a career .253 hitter in the minors until coming in at .282 this year. It’s still his ability to hit for average that is probably his biggest question mark going forward. His all-around game should ensure that he’s a long-term regular, but he’s not going to be a star if he’s a .230-.240 hitter.
Lowe’s stay could be a brief one with Randy Arozarena going on the paternity list, and even if it isn’t, he probably won’t play enough down the stretch here to be of use in mixed leagues. A left-handed hitter, he’d definitely sit against lefties, and the Rays aren’t going to bench Kevin Kiermaier against many righties. With his 20 HR-20 SB ability, Lowe could be awfully interesting next spring. It’s easy to imagine the thrifty Rays finally parting with Kiermaier and letting Lowe, Manuel Margot and maybe Vidal Brujan battle it out in center.[[ad:athena]]
American League notes
- The Mariners officially ruled Kyle Lewis (knee) out for the rest of the season Tuesday. Between Lewis’s extensive injury history and the struggles of Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell this year, the Mariners are facing much more uncertainty in their outfield entering 2022 than they figured to have right now. Kelenic hasn’t been overwhelmed since being recalled in mid-July, but his .190/.264/.328 line with 59 strikeouts in 193 plate appearances is disappointing. Trammell has had a very tough go of it since his strong spring earned him a roster spot. He almost certainly would have gotten another look in left field with Jake Fraley hurt, but he’s hit just .208/.328/.310 in 44 games since his last demotion to Triple-A Tacoma. I’ve long been fond of Fraley, but he’s another guy with long-term injury issues, and while he has managed nine homers in 178 major league at-bats this year, he just hasn’t hit the ball very hard in general; he’s actually had only six barrels and his average exit velocity is in the bottom five percent of non-pitchers. The Mariners were supposed to be able to trade Mitch Haniger and still be all set in the outfield next year. That hardly seems like the case now.
- No one would have been surprised if the Tigers had simply shut down Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize for the final few weeks of the season, but the team has gone a different route in order to limit their workloads; it appears both will finish up as three-inning pitchers. The Tigers already did something similar with Mize in July, limiting him to 11 innings over three starts around the All-Star break. Since the short outings take wins completely off the board, there wouldn’t seem to be any point to holding on to either pitcher in shallow leagues.
- The Red Sox made the wrong pick when they chose Kutter Crawford over Connor Seabold for a spot start Sunday. Next time around, it’ll probably be Seabold getting the call. The 25-year-old missed the fist half of the season with elbow inflammation, but he’s experienced an uptick in velocity since returning and has a 43/9 K/BB ratio go along with a 3.29 ERA in his last seven starts for Triple-A Worcester. With his changeup as his best pitch, lefties have hit just .138 with one homer in 96 plate appearances against him on the season. I don’t know that it’d translate to immediate major league success, but he deserves a shot with Nick Pivetta on the COVID IL.
National League notes
- While I didn’t rush to move Cody Bellinger back into my overall top 20 after he turned in his strong burst at the beginning of August, I did assume he’d finish fairly well from there. However, since his two homers -- his third and fourth in four games -- against the Phillies on Aug. 11, he’s gone a disastrous 9-for-80 with no homers and a 23/2 K/BB ratio. The Dodgers can afford to let him continue to try to figure things out for the rest of the regular season, but if he doesn’t show something soon, his defense in center probably won’t be enough to keep him in the lineup in October.
Obviously, strikeouts are part of Bellinger’s problem. He has a 27.3% K rate this year, well up from 16.4% in his MVP season in 2019 and 17.3% in his disappointing 2020. That’s only part of the issue, though; Fernando Tatis Jr. had the same strikeout rate as Bellinger and there are several productive hitters higher than those two. Bellinger is just getting too much air under the ball. His hardest-hit balls are often skied well shy of the warning track. He has the third-highest launch angle in MLB, and while it seems like he might be trying to adjust of late, there’s nothing encouraging to be taken from his at-bats this month. I’ll happily bet on him at a reduced price next spring, but there probably isn’t much hope for September, at least outside of the Dodgers’ one series in Coors Field.
- The Diamondbacks have found room on the roster for Henry Ramos and Jake McCarthy and they’re already sitting Christian Walker against righties anyway, but they still haven’t promoted Seth Beer, who has hit .287/.398/.511 for Triple-A Reno. It’s nice that Ramos is getting a cup of coffee 11 years after the Red Sox picked him in the 2010 draft -- and he earned it by hitting .371/.439/.582 for Reno -- but he’s not a part of the Diamondbacks’ future plans. McCarthy seems like a long shot to me; he’s fast and he’ll take a walk, but I’m skeptical that he’ll hit for either average or power in the majors. It seems like Beer, who was picked up from the Astros in the Zack Greinke deal, is worth a look to see if he can supplant Walker at first base next year. That the Diamondbacks haven’t given him one wouldn’t seem to bode well.
- It’s unclear whether Tyler Clippard’s stay on the COVID-19 IL will be a lengthy one or not; he’s experienced symptoms but hasn’t tested positive. The Diamondbacks lack an obvious fallback in the closer’s role, which makes me wonder if they might just try Taylor Widener, who was shifted from the rotation to the pen last week. The alternative is probably J.B. Wendleken, whose velocity has come back after a rough start but who still isn’t pitching all that well.
- It’s been fun watching the Reds roll with strict platoons at four spots recently, using Mike Moustakas, Tyler Naquin, Max Schrock and Tucker Barnhart versus righties and Eugenio Suarez, Delino DeShields Jr., Aristides Aquino and Tyler Stephenson against lefties. Schrock, playing left field with Jesse Winker out, has been a particularly nice surprise, hitting .323/.382/.532 in 68 plate appearances.
Left out of the fun, though, has been Shogo Akiyama, who hasn’t started a game since Aug. 24. Akiyama was one of Japan’s very best players -- in his final three years for Seibu, he eclipsed a .300 average, 20 homers, 30 doubles and 70 walks each season -- but it just hasn’t translated to MLB; he’s hit .222/.319/.270 without a single homer in 359 plate appearances for Cincinnati since debuting last year. Even when he hits the ball hard, it tends to be on the ground. Akiyama is still owed another $8 million next year. Maybe he could still help some against righties, but he needs most consistent playing time to be useful, but at this point, he just hasn’t shown enough upside to suggest it’d really pay off.
