NOTE: It is TBD who the Cowboys starting quarterback will be. If Dak Prescott is unable to go, it will be Cooper Rush.
Dallas, sitting at 5-1 straight up and the only team in the NFL undefeated ATS (6-0) are laying a short number in Minnesota and are attracting a ton of public action.
The main focus for any game featuring the Cowboys offense is simple – how good is your defense and do you have the ability to match up with and slow down this high-powered offense led by Dak Prescott?
Overall on the season, the Vikings defense ranks #6 in defensive efficiency despite playing the NFL’s 8th toughest schedule. But the last two games, they played two of the worst offenses in the NFL (#28 Lions and #30 Panthers). Then they had a bye. Now they get their toughest test of the season, the Dallas Cowboys, who rank #3 in offensive efficiency.
The Vikings excel defending the pass (#3) and get a good pass rush (#2 in adjusted sack rate) and are #1 in pressure rate and hurry rate. They are getting this pressure despite blitzing at a below average rate.
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But the quarterbacks that the Vikings have faced the last three weeks, when their defense has played the best, are not overly impressive: Sam Darnold, Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield. These quarterbacks can be impacted by confusing blitzes.
Dak has been solid vs the blitz. He’s averaged +0.06 EPA, 7.8 YPA and a 60% success rate when blitzed on early downs this season. Those numbers are fairly close to the NFL average across the board.
The key for Dak is not just blitzing, it’s getting pressure on him. Compare Dak’s splits when pressured vs the NFL average:
QBs when pressured: -0.42 EPA/att, 5.2 YPA, 38% success rate
QBs when not pressured: +0.24 EPA/att, 8.0 YPA, 56% success rate
Dak when pressured: -0.27 EPA/att, 5.9 YPA, 48% success rate
Dak when not pressured: +0.44 EPA/att, 8.9 YPA, 67% success rate
Dak is one of the best in the NFL this season when not pressured, but only slightly above average when not pressured.
In fact, this game features the two best QBs in the NFL when not pressured: #1 Kirk Cousins and #2 Dak Prescott.
Dallas is near league average in early down run rate, they have a top-10 pass offense and a top-10 rush offense. They have the #2 offense on early down efficiency.
On the ground, Dallas is averaging 5.5 yards per first down rushing attempt, the most in the league.
Through the air, 43.7% of Dak Prescott’s pass attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
They’ve put up 35+ points in four straight games.
Meanwhile, on the season, Minnesota is allowing the 3rd highest EPA/rush on first downs, to go with 5.0 YPC and a 59% success rate.
The only saving grace for the Vikings defense here is the potential for Dak Prescott to be limited with his calf injury.
On the other side of the ball, my concern with the Vikings offense is the same as it is for virtually every game: the Vikings run the ball too much.
They have gotten better over the last several years, and have improved their first down pass rate in the first half of games from….
2019: 43% pass (avg = 49%)
2020: 48% pass (avg = 50%)
2021: 53% pass (avg = 51%)
But they need to shift even more to the pass in this game for the simple reason that they are far more efficient when passing and the Cowboys are far more efficient defending the run.
On the season, in the first half of games:
First down runs vs the Cowboys: -0.09 EPA/rush (#9 best)
First down passes vs the Cowboys: +0.17 EPA (#21 best)
In addition, these passes are allowing an NFL-worst 10.7 YPA and a 67% success rate (3rd worst).
Meanwhile, look at the Vikings on these first half first downs:
First down runs: -0.09 EPA/att, 4.0 YPC, 40% success (#22 best)
First down passes: +0.25 EPA/att, 7.6 YPA, 60% success (#8 best)
It’s a clear strength on weakness if the Vikings were to go with a more pass-heavy approach starting in the first quarter, but it’s unlikely they do it given their historic track record.
When you look deeper at the Cowboys defense, while they do rank #10 overall, #10 vs the pass and #15 vs the run, they’ve played a wide range of caliber of offenses.
Against offenses ranking 21st or worse, the Cowboys are 3-0 with 3 blowouts (Eagles, Panthers and Giants).
Against offenses ranking top-15, such as the Vikings, the Cowboys:
Lost 31-29 vs the Buccaneers
Won 20-17 vs the Chargers
Won in overtime vs the Patriots
On first down passes in those 3 games, the Cowboys allowed 10.1 YPA, 65% success and +0.16 EPA/att.
Dalvin Cook did return from his ankle injury the week before the bye and gained a total of 143 yards on 31 touches.
If we look deeper at the DB matchup when the Vikings have the ball, we see a couple of advantages that may not seem quite like edges unless you dig into the numbers.
Trevon Diggs leads the NFL in interceptions, but has also allowed the third-most receiving yards when targeted (369 yards) and 23.1 yards per catch. The Cowboys could choose to shadow Diggs on Justin Jefferson.
If they do not, they likely will keep Diggs on the left side of the field most often (61% of snaps) and keep Anthony Brown on the right (59% of snaps). That would put Adam Thielen on Brown most often, as Thielen has lined up at right WR on 43% of his snaps vs only 32% at left WR.
Additionally, Thielen will align in the slot on 24% of his routes, where he will be going up against the weakest DB on the Cowboys, slot corner Jourdan Lewis.
