Below is a look at the league’s most extreme run funnel and pass funnel defenses through Week 14 — teams being consistently attacked on the ground or through the air regardless of game script.
Having an understanding of which defenses are being bludgeoned via the rush or pass should help us identify matchups that may be better than we think in Week 15.
Run Funnel Defenses
New Orleans Saints
The Saints have stormed to the front of the run-funnel pack in recent weeks as opponents (almost) completely abandon the pass against New Orleans in neutral and positive game script.
No team, in fact, is a more extreme run funnel since Week 11. Sixty-five percent of the offensive plays run against the Saints in neutral script — when the game is within seven points either way — have been rushing attempts since Week 11, by far the highest rate in the NFL. It makes at least some sense when one sees the Seahawks are the only team allowing a higher rate of yards before contact per rush over the second half of the season, and only seven defenses have given up a higher rush EPA.
What it means for Week 15: Saquon Barkley is in a tremendous spot pretty much no matter how this game unfolds. Barkley, who has 38 touches over the past two Tommy DeVito starts, could quite easily get it done this week even on limited volume. Obviously you’re starting Barkley in redraft formats. He could be a quietly excellent DFS option as well.
New York Jets
The Jets are now the league’s most extreme run funnel on the season. Things aren’t much different over the past month: Only the Saints and Falcons profile as more pronounced run funnels over that span.
This doesn’t mean New York opponents are trying to exploit a vulnerable rush defense, only that they’re doing whatever it takes to avoid passing into the teeth of of stellar secondary, graded by Pro Football Focus as the NFL’s best. The Jets are also tough against the run, giving up the eighth lowest EPA per rushing attempt and the league’s fourth lowest rushing success rate. Jets opponents have run the ball at a 52 percent rate in neutral game script since Week 8, the second highest mark in the NFL over that seven-week stretch.
What it means for Week 15: The Dolphins were 5 percent below their expected drop back rate when these teams met a few weeks ago on Black Friday. It was Miami’s second run heaviest game of the season and it generated 33 rushes for Dolphins running backs. That included 20 for Raheem Mostert, who had 94 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
De’Vone Achane is iffy for Week 15 with a toe injury. His absence would make Mostert an elite fantasy option since Achane in recent weeks has taken over as the team’s primary back in two-minute drills. Last week, Achane drew nine targets on a backfield-leading 22 routes. Absorbing most of that pass-catching work would give Mostert another out for fantasy purposes: If the Dolphins can’t establish it against New York, Mostert could still make the most of a potential glut of targets.
Indianapolis Colts
A familiar team in this space, the Colts make yet another cameo as the league’s fifth most pronounced run funnel defense. Indy opponents have rushed the ball at a 47 percent clip in neutral script since Week 8. That number jumps to 49 percent when the Colts are trailing.
Since Week 8, the Colts have become something of a sieve against enemy rushers. They allow the second highest EPA per rush and the highest rushing success rate. PFF grades the Colts defensive line as the league’s third worst run-stopping unit. They rank inside the top ten in both yards before contact per rush allowed and yards after contact.
The Bengals in Week 14 were 4 percent below their expected drop back rate against the horseshoes, leading to 30 running back carries for Cincinnati. The week prior, Tennessee was 10 percent below its expected drop back rate against the Colts -- far lower than the team’s season-long rate -- and Titans running backs combined for an eye-popping 35 rushes. My eyes: They have popped. The Patriots, meanwhile, were 15 percent below their expected drop back rate against these Colts.
What it means for Week 15: This all kinda depends on Mitch Trubisky being somewhat decent — a big ask — but neutral game script should result in a bunch of carries for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
Harris, who has a 43-29 rushing attempt edge over Warren over Pittsburgh’s past three outings, figures to be the primary beneficiary of a run-first approach. Warren, among the league leaders in explosive run rate, could always make the most of his carries against a burnable front seven. Both guys are very much in play in Week 15.
Pass Funnel Defenses
Jacksonville Jaguars
The league’s third most extreme pass funnel on the season, Jacksonville is shutting down enemy rushers and leaving teams no choice but to drop back and air it out. We don’t mind this so much.
Jags opponents are passing at a 65 percent rate in neutral game script this season, and no team faces a higher pass rate when they’re leading. And get this: 74.4 percent of the yards gained against Jacksonville this season have come via the pass. That’s the highest rate in the NFL by a long shot.
What it means for Week 15: We just saw Lamar Jackson and the Ravens lead the league in neutral pass rate last week against the pass-funnel Rams. We’re probably going to see something strikingly similar in Week 15 against the Jaguars.
The trio fo Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely, and Odell Beckham should see a bunch of opportunities against an increasingly shaky Jags coverage unit. All three Ravens pass catchers can be started confidently in all formats this week thanks to the reliably pass-funnel nature of the Jacksonville defense.
Philadelphia Eagles
Faithful readers of this funnel-based column know by now that we love our Eagles. Everyone turns bigly toward the pass against Philadelphia, both because the team’s rush defense is pretty good — they allow the NFL’s fifth lowest rush EPA — and because their secondary is so eminently beatable. Only the 49ers are a more pronounced pass funnel.
Graded by PFF as the league’s seventh worst coverage unit, the Eagles have allowed the fourth highest drop back success rate since Week 10, along with the sixth highest adjusted net yards per attempt. The Eagles, as game watchers know, are being shredded in the middle of the field.
What it means for Week 15: The Seahawks have (quietly) been pass heavy of late. Since Week 8, Seattle is 5 percent over their expected drop back rate. They’ve been below that rate in just one of their past seven games. The Seahawks’ 65 percent neutral pass rate trails only Washington since Week 8.
Whoever starts for Seattle this week against the Eagles — Geno Smith is iffy with a groin injury — will surely drop back early and often. This is a pass-first offense that will likely be forced to chase points against an Eagles team that should wreck Seattle via the run game. A big, fat stat line could be in store for DK Metcalf, who since Week 10 leads the Hawks with a 22.5 percent target share and a monster 46 percent air yards share. The Eagles have struggled with big boundary wideouts all season.
Inflated drop backs for the Seahawks should put Jaxon Smith-Ngiba in play for deep league and DFS purposes. The rookie has 18 targets over the past two games. Against the Niners in Week 14, JSN had a strong 79 percent route rate. It’s a plush matchup for JSN: The Eagles give up the league’s second highest target share to slot receivers and Smith-Ngiba runs about 70 percent of his routes from the slot.
Chicago Bears
The Bears have become one of the NFL’s stingiest rush defenses, leaving opponents little choice but to air it out. Since Week 9, Chicago opponents have a 63 percent neutral pass rate, the third highest in the NFL over that stretch. That rate ticks up to 66 percent when the Bears are leading.
The Bears, by most measures, are a middling coverage unit — not great, but certainly not bottom tier.
What it means for Week 15: Everything in the Browns-Bears matchup points to Cleveland deploying yet another hugely pass-heavy game plan. Six percent over their expected drop back rate in Joe Flacco’s two starts, the Browns are passing in almost every situation. It’s why Flacco has a jaw-dropping 90 pass attempts over his two starts.
This is creating tremendous target volume for Cleveland pass catchers. Amari Cooper — despite missing much of Week 13 with a brain injury — has 18 targets with Flacco under center; Elijah Moore has 16; David Njoku has 15; even Cedric Tillman has ten. Both the Bears and the Browns rank inside the top five in offensive snaps per game. This game profiles as an extraordinarily fantasy friendly environment and puts all Cleveland pass catchers in play.
