Turning our attention toward Colonial Country Club this week, we have a lot of course history to lean on.
You could go all the way back to 1946 if you wanted to dive deep. Instead of focusing only on past results, we should use all of that history to dissect how the course generally plays.
After a quick review, we see that iron play is very important here, even more so than the average TOUR stop. We also know that scoring is typically pretty tough here with a low amount of eagles available on the par-70 layout. Let’s dive into these angles to see if we can find some potential Yahoo DFS value options.
Locked In Iron Play
Heading to a second-shot course this week, iron play becomes crucial if you want to contend.
When I look at the last five years of contenders, the winners and runner-up finishers were averaging 5 strokes gained on approach in their 12 lead-in rounds before the Colonial.
This isn’t a course you want to show up to without your best stuff, especially on approach.
Here are the top performers in recent strokes gained approach (last 12 lead-in rounds):
Viktor Hovland
Jordan Spieth
Max Homa
Kevin Na
Mito Pereira
Harold Varner III
Stephan Jaeger
David Lipsky
Will Zalatoris
Kurt Kitayama
Collin Morikawa
Sebastian Munoz
Justin Thomas
Stewart Cink
Scottie Scheffler
David Lipsky ($20): He arrives with top 10s in two of his last five starts with a T25 also thrown into that mix. He’s not flashy but as you can see from above, he can really dial in the irons. His game doesn’t rely on distance so Colonial CC is a good spot for him to potentially contend.
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Hard Courses
Colonial Country Club has played to an over-par field average in five of the last six editions.
Add in the expected weekend wind this week and we should expect another tough test by week’s end.
Here are the top performers on tough courses, over the last two years:
Scottie Scheffler
Will Zalatoris
Collin Morikawa
Viktor Hovland
Justin Thomas
Tony Finau
Chris Kirk
Patrick Reed
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Webb Simpson
Jason Kokrak
Sam Burns
Jordan Spieth
Kurt Kitayama
Tommy Fleetwood
We can also compare those numbers to their two-year baseline numbers to see which golfers overperform on tough tracks.
Kurt Kitayama
Chris Kirk
Scottie Scheffler
Will Zalatoris
Collin Morikawa
Patrick Reed
Stephan Jaeger
Mito Pereira
Dylan Frittelli
Tony Finau
Adam Schenk
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Sam Ryder
Jason Kokrak
David Lipsky
Names that show up on both lists include Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Reed, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Jason Kokrak, and Kurt Kitayama.
Kurt Kitayama ($22): Similar to Lipsky, we have another potential value play here with Vegas ties. Kitayama arrives with top 15s in two of his last three starts and could be starting to feel more comfortable on the PGA TOUR. We know he has that extra gear with two DP World Tour wins on his resume.
Hopefully, these stats will give you some names to dive into when it comes to researching your final selections this week over at Yahoo!
