I guess it’s customary to begin a Christmas Day post with a season’s greetings, so best wishes to everyone for a happy holiday with friends and family.
The players I’m presenting below probably could use a little Christmas magic in the hopes of better production at even strength and maybe Santa’s gift to them would be more intangible than physical.
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Five players struggling at even strength, each with unique reasons and circumstances, even playing for relatively successful teams … like the Arizona Coyotes. Correction .. the newly enhanced, Arizona Coyotes, now with more scoring power after adding Taylor Hall in as an early Christmas present.
So let’s begin in the desert.
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Phil Kessel
Airlifted from the Penguins in an off season trade that raised the hopes of the Coyotes offensive capability hasn’t panned out as expected halfway through the first season at 5v5. The former Bruin, Leaf and Penguins winger is earning a point on career low 53.85% of on-ice goals, while firing a career low 3.23% - amid depressed overall scoring chances and high danger scoring chances. Even rebounds created is depressed enough to determine the 32-year old is struggling to create shooting opportunities at even strength. Righting the ship should begin at an increased rate of shots per 60 minutes – currently sitting at a career low 7.17. Getting the shots up should generate more rebounds and more scoring opportunities that would enhance both the shooting metrics and woefully low primary and secondary assists rates. More shots, better concentrated from deadly distances will also enhance the individual expected goals rate (ixG/60).
Sebastian Aho
On pace to shatter career high in goals at 5v5, (18 in sophomore season 2017-18) courtesy of a career high individual shooting percentage and culminating in 10 goals so far, outproducing the 6.66 expected goals – while producing at career average rates of ixG/60 (0.79 in 2019-20, 0.79 career average). The Hurricanes winger has spent a majority of time with Teuvo Teravainen, feeding off their partnership to produce lots of goals. Off typical pace in assists, he’s earning points in only 53% of on-ice goals – a career low, while sharing a career high on-ice shooting percentage. A bump in the individual points percentage (53%) could produce a sharp increase in even strength points.
Frank Vatrano
An odd inclusion, but isolated for his on ice influence. The 25-year old is on pace for 16 goals and 32 points, playing alongside the likes of Denis Malgin and Brett Connolly at 5v5, but earning a point on 90% of on-ice goals. That places him at the top of the NHL standings, basically driving offensive production while on the ice.
The former Bruin has averaged 65% in his career, so it’s reasonable to expect that individual point percentage to decline as the season progresses.
Yet, he lacks the double digit shooting percentages of the last two seasons, where deflated shooting percentage at 5v5 can help push him over the 20-goal mark by jumping to career averages to give him a chance to flirt with the 24-goal career high. He’s scored seven so far, only two at 5v5. That production could improve.
Alex Radulov
With his worst showing on-ice since his return from the KHL, the rugged Russian has points on 57.8% of on-ice goals at 5v5, affecting his points pace. A return to career averages wouldn’t salvage his season enough to get back to the high 30’s in 5v5 points.
Shooting metrics are down across the board, another component that needs to improve, both at the individual and team level to influence a higher scoring pace. The Stars are firing career low 7.3% with him on the ice, the worst in his overall NHL career and part of the reason his goal per 60 rate has dropped by almost 54%. Some linemate stability would be beneficial and likelier to occur under new coach, Rick Bowness than with the ousted Jim Montgomery.
Claude Giroux
Flyers stand out is only one point shy of his first quarter production, scoring one more goal over the second quarter (17-6-6-12). He had fired a shot on goal in 29 straight and on pace for 55 points, the lowest point totals in 10 seasons.
Struggles to produce begins with seven points at 5v4 – even as he earns points on a career average pace.
But at 5v5, the picture is a bit bleaker, with points on career low 54.17%, playing with the red hot Travis Konecny most recently, while spending some unproductive even strength time with James van Riemsdyk over the first quarter.
Goals per 60 production is being sustained by his career second highest shots per 60 rate, and more high danger chances since the last NHL lockout.
Where the production is being hampered is assists, recording his second worst totals over his career. It’s no doubt that the struggles of ‘JvR’ contributed to that (shared one assist between them). It’s not likely to see a return to the 50 point mark at 5v5 this season, despite the excellent overall shooting metrics.
