Stag’s Take – Gameweek 34
Finally, active FPL managers up and down the overall rankings received a boost in a “special” gameweek as a number of popular players, in particular Eden Hazard, fired the template to green arrows and glory in Gameweek 33. After the FA Cup fixtures which ran in tandem to BGW33 and the absorbing midweek Champions League action, Hazard’s heroics, Jamie Vardy’s brace, and Mohamed Salah actually scoring seem like distant memories already. We need to dust ourselves down and look to this upcoming Gameweek now, where Brighton and Cardiff have two fixtures each and some of the Top Six have lopsided fixtures, but also we need to look further to DGW35, a time when many managers plan to use their Bench Boost chip.
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The Double Gameweek Sides
A double gameweek (DGW) for both Cardiff (Burnley A, Brighton A) and Brighton (Bournemouth H, Cardiff H) doesn’t sell itself as the sort of FPL gameweek which will live long in our memories, but it would be foolish not to at least pay heed to what both sides have to offer…
Brighton, a side who have scored five times in their last six PL games, picking up six points in total. Albion’s home form is particularly unforgiveable and underlines exactly why they find themselves in a relegation dogfight; they have just two wins in their last eight games at home where they have entertained their faithful supporters with five goals.
Cardiff, a side who have just one win in their last six, and who have scored on just four occasions in that period, earning just three points. City have been a bit worse in their last eight away games than Brighton have been on their home turf, winning as often but drawing one less (1) game than the Seagulls.
For what it’s worth, neither sides’ defence has pulled up any trees either, both are in double figures for goals conceded in their last six.
All of the above highlights that we should not put too much faith in either side, with three DGW players probably verging on imprudence. My top two picks are:
The Irish centre-back is Brighton’s biggest threat from set pieces and one of their biggest goal threats in general. Just two defenders, Jeffrey Schlupp (10) and Nicolás Otamendi (yes, random one, 8), have had more attempts on goal than Duffy (7) since GW28. Six of the seven came from inside the box, all of them meeting crosses from corners. In spite of Brighton’s poor form, it could be argued that both Bournemouth and Cardiff are actually playing worse than them, opening the door to the Seagulls actually keeping a clean sheet. To those considering Duffy’s centre-back partner Lewis Dunk, I suggest you try to find the extra budget to accommodate Duffy instead. He is more likely to score and far better at picking up bonus points if Albion happen to keep a clean sheet. Duffy is a genuine option for your captain’s armband this gameweek.
In a season packed with disappointment, Víctor Camarasa has managed to make a name for himself with FPL managers after scoring five times and assisting a further three this campaign. The Spaniard is Cardiff’s top scorer in their last five league games with *coughs* two goals to his name, one of which came from a set play. Two goal involvements in City’s last five outings means that he has been involved in two thirds of all Cardiff’s goals, begging the question, is he Warnock’s talisman? Probably not, but he is the team’s biggest goal threat. In spite of playing just four of the last five games, he has the second most attempts on goal of his teammates (7). Surprisingly, Oumar Niasse hasn’t found the net with any of his eight attempts in that time – in fact just two went on target for the Everton loanee. Camarasa had as many opportunities in the box as Niasse (5), though more of his chances have been classified as “big chances” (3). No Cardiff player has created more chances than Camarasa either (6) and he is the club’s most prolific crosser of the ball (20 crosses in his last four appearances; 8 found a teammate). The vast majority of Cardiff’s set piece duties fall to Camarasa too, including penalties, augmenting his chance of returning for managers. For just 4.5, he is definitely worth a gamble, particularly for those of you who are wildcarding.
Wildcard attackers
As Harry Kane hobbled off on Tuesday evening, Ben Dinnery’s mentions briefly became the hub of the Twitterverse are FPL managers scrambled to see if the World Cup Golden Boot winner would be available to face Huddersfield in GW33. As it transpired, Kane left Spurs’ new stadium embedded in a grey medical boot, with Pochettino informing reporters that he may miss the rest of the season. Fortunately, Kane’s absence unlocks a huge amount of money for managers to invest elsewhere in their squads.
There’s a saying in Irish, “nuair a bhíonn an cat amuigh, bíonn an luch ag rince”, which translates to “when the cat’s away, the mice will play”. With Spurs’ feline Kane sidelined, there is a great chance for Fernando Llorente to impress. He may have sat on the bench as quietly as a mouse for most of the season, but when he had a chance earlier in the season to get regular minutes, he returned well although he didn’t perform impressively in any game I can recall. At one point during Kane’s last injury absence, Llorente returned in three consecutive games. He looks set to have a much more consistent run in the side in the PL this time and looks like a great low price punt for a wildcard side at 5.1. Heung-Min Son looks to have emerged from a bad patch of form in the last two games, scoring against Palace in GW33 and following that up with a fine performance and goal to boot against Man City in the Champions League on Tuesday evening. However, there are doubts about the South Korea international’s involvement in the Terriers’ visit to London after he seemed to pick up a knock just before his goal against City. Unless new information emerges, I won’t be including him in a wildcard team even though Spurs have a DGW35 to look forward to (Man City A, Brighton H). Christian Eriksen has been in good form of late, seemingly far move involved in attacks than previously this season – he seems like a great wildcard option.
Jamie Vardy has been in red hot form since Brendan Rodgers took charge of Leicester City, scoring seven times in his last six games. He does not have a DGW35, but even still an encounter with West Ham seems to come with a multiplier effect for an attacker’s goal threat ever since they hit 40 points. Newcastle, Leicester’s GW34 opponents, having been suffering from travel sickness of late to compound a performance lull since safety was seemingly secured, with the Magpies picking up just two points away from St. James’ Park in four games. Selling Vardy now seems like a poor idea, though I think a manager on a Wildcard can be forgiven for letting go of their second Leicester asset, presumably James Maddison or Youri Tielemans, to unlock a space for a player with a DGW and better fixtures ahead. Leicester’s last three games are all against Top Six opposition.
No side has better upcoming fixtures than Arsenal, and the Gunners have a huge amount to play for as the race for the Top Four reaches a fever pitch. A visit to Vicarage Road in GW34 is going to be followed by a DGW featuring games against Palace and Wolves, setting up a run-in made up of Leicester, Brighton, and Burnley. At least one Gunner attacker seems like a good idea. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s frustratingly inconsistent game time means that Alex Lacazette has played a lot more (348 mins, 259) yet both men have actually scored as many goals (2) from an equal number of attempts (12) in the last five games the club have played. If Auba was always going to start, his selection would be a no-brainer, but Lacazette seems like a more logical selection. Aaron Ramsey is Arsenal’s third biggest threat, but his impending Italian job means he doesn’t get the minutes he merits either.
Manchester City present a particularly difficult set of questions to ponder for those on their Wildcard. I myself have sold my City defender, expecting them to concede in each of their next three PL games against Palace (bogey team), Spurs (a good team), and Manchester United (a team that needs to score against them). Rotation will of course skewer your plans with City attackers at some stage, meaning that you should go with your gut on their assets and accept the inevitable rotation with zen-like calm. Sergio Agüero’s strong record against the Top Six as well as the fact that he has just one other player (pretty much) competing with him for his starting berth are the determining factors in my preference for including the Argentine in my squad. That said, I have a lot of value tied up in him too which is certainly playing on my mind. My Wildcard squad is unlikely to have any other City players in it.
Eden Hazard is unpredictable but essential. Keep him.
Wolves and Watford – what next?
Both of the two teams in the PL whose name begins with the letter “W” and who still have something to play for met in a winner takes all FA Cup encounter last weekend, producing a classic game and plenty of talking points.
From an FPL point of view, we are left wondering whether either side will continue to play well in the PL. Watford “whose mind will be on the FA Cup Final” and Wolves “who may be heartbroken”, both of whom “may want to avoid pesky squad-depth testing Thursday night Europa League football next season starting in July” (to set out all the clichés). In truth, I don’t know how to progress with players from either side. Watford have particularly good DGW35 fixtures, creating a strong argument for ensuring Ben Foster takes one of your goalkeeper berths, but from an attacking point of view Javi Gracia’s penchant for change means that aside from Abdoulaye Doucouré, no decent FPL prospect in midfield seems safe. If Gerard Deulofeu is passed fit, he seems like a fantastic option for DGW35. Perhaps including Víctor Camarasa in a wildcard team but leaving enough budget for an upgrade with a free transfer next week would be a good bet. I’m not too keen on Troy.
As for Wolves, their defensive record has slipped so much that it seems like focusing solely on attackers seems like the way forward. Keeping a place for one of Diogo Jota or Raúl Jiménez, but not both, seems like a good idea, even if only to act as a buffer against their ownership.
Captaincy
I’ll keep this section short and sweet this week:
- Shane Duffy (Bournemouth H, Cardiff City H)
- Eden Hazard (Liverpool A)
- Gylfi Sigurdsson (Fulham A)
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Stag has been providing #FPL Tips since July 2015 and has been a contributor for Rotoworld.com since August 2016. He is a self-proclaimed wannabe fantasy football genius, a student, and die-hard tea enthusiast.
