Despite living in an era of max-protecting quarterbacks and don’t breathe on wide receivers, scoring touchdowns has been a challenge through five weeks of the 2023 NFL season. 15 teams – nearly half the league - have scored 12 or fewer touchdowns on offense this season. 22 teams are averaging fewer than three per game. Leading the charge are the New York Giants and the New England Patriots whose offenses are certain cures for insomnia scoring five and six touchdowns respectively this season.
Add in some bad weather this weekend and the trend looks certain to continue in Week 6. The boys from Bet the EDGE took a look at two potential candidates on today’s episode.
First up, the Baltimore Ravens (-192) and the Tennessee Titans (+160) who meet Sunday at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are favored by 4 with the Total set at 40.5 at DraftKings.
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) spoke to the early line and total.
“When this opened, there was one way action Titans. This (the line) went down to three. It was a juicy three for the Ravens and then kind of as news matriculated around the space that the Baltimore Ravens were going to take this trip to London seriously and go early and really get themselves adjusted to the body clock times, guess what Jay? The money came in on the Ravens and the money came in on the Over and I think those are both the right sides in this one.”
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) says the Ravens are a bit of a head-scratcher.
“It’s difficult to process how you should adjust out of that Steelers game…I think the Ravens have an elite defense. They quietly have the #2 defense by EPA per play now. It’s been very, very solid, and the offense is 20th. You would think that a Lamar Jackson offense would have a higher floor than 20th. But when your receivers drop seven passes, that’s how you end up there.”
The pair ended up siding with the Ravens, but the game left them looking elsewhere for greater intrigue.
“These are two teams that are kind of uninspiring at the moment, which is unusual for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.”
Elsewhere, the Cleveland Browns (+230) welcome the San Francisco 49ers (-285) into the Dog Pound. With it looking like Deshawn Watson will not play and the potential for rotten weather Sunday in Cleveland, the intrigue in this one centers around the Cleveland defense vs. Brock Purdy and the 49ers’ juggernaut of an offense. what has been a juggernaut of an offense. San Francisco is nearly a touchdown favorite (-6.5) with the Total sitting at 36.5.
“I think there’s a realistic expectation that this game is just flat out ugly, and that this is sort of a first to 20 wins. At 37½, yes, a lot of that is built into this total. But right now, if you were going to tell me to make a play on this game? I’m fine with playing under 37½.”
It is shaping up to be a game controlled by the defensive coordinators.
“I would expect Schwartz (DC Jim Schwartz of the Browns) is the kind of guy that’s going to have at least half of his Garrett snaps on the inside and trying to come right down the pipe at Purdy. Garrett is strong enough to win and he is fast enough to get there before Purdy can get the ball out of his hands. I think that there is a decent chance that that could be a major storyline coming out of this game.”
Should Garrett have a big day, expect his DPOY odds to nosedive. More to follow.
Enjoy the games no matter how offensive the offenses may be and enjoy the sweat.
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*all odds courtesy of DraftKings
