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With so many college basketball games postponed or canceled due to COVID-19 concerns, there’s not a lot on today’s slate to choose from. As of this morning, only three games involving Big 12 Conference teams are scheduled. However, the two most lopsided lines do have betting value:
Northwestern St. at Baylor (-38.5) o/u 143
After an eight-day break, the number-one team in the country returns to the hardwood to take on a Quad 4 team that doesn’t have a Division I win so far. Northwestern St. was able to keep its games within 20 against Quad 1 groups like Oklahoma and Texas A&M, but they’ve also been blown out by Houston and LSU. Perhaps the only noteworthy thing about the Demons is they play at one of the faster paces in the country, coming in 47th in possessions per game (74.2).
This contest marks the final tune-up before conference play for Baylor. One glaring weakness for the Bears is free throw rate, coming in 305th in the country (24.3%) per barttorvik.com. They are not getting calls inside and they are not making shots from the charity stripe. Aside from this point, the offense and defense look elite, the rebounding is solid and the turnover/steal ratio is great. Addressing the lone weakness, getting bench players in the game and the expected pace, it should be a high-scoring game.
EDGE: Over 143 (-115)
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Incarnate Word at Texas (-34.5) o/u 129.5
Incarnate Word should put up more of a fight. Not only does it have a Division-I win, but the Cardinals have also broken the top 200 in effective field goal percentage (49.2%) and are actually one of the better free-throw shooting teams in the country (6th at 81.5%).
Texas has had a six-day layoff and will also enter conference play after this contest. No team has been better at creating extra possessions defensively. Six Longhorns are averaging at least one steal a game, including Dylan Disu, a junior forward who only began his season three games ago after dealing with a knee injury to start the season. He was one of the big reasons why Texas overcame an early 16-4 deficit to Alabama St. before cruising to a 20-point win. Assuming there will not be another slow start, it may be more imperative for Chris Beard to get backups playing time, which might make the score more respectable for Incarnate Word. It’s also a Chris Beard team, the pace will be slow, limiting the magnitude of the blowout.
EDGE: Incarnate Word +34.5 (-110)
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