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Vanderbilt (-6.5) at Hawaii: O/U 55.0
Hawaii has not played an SEC school since 2008 and rarely plays Power 5 schools, but this year, they open the season by hosting Vanderbilt.
Last year, Hawaii played two Power 5 schools and went 0-2 ATS and on the ML versus Oregon State (45-27) and UCLA (44-10).
Since 2016, Hawaii played nine contests versus Power 5 opponents and the Over hit in seven of those nine times (72.8%), while they have gone 3-6 ATS (33.3%) and 2-7 on the ML (22.2%).
Entering 2022, Hawaii is in turnover with six total returning starters, a new head coach in former Hawaii quarterback Timmy Chang and a new stadium that fits a loaded 9,300 fans.
On the other hand, Vanderbilt is looking for an easy win with one of the toughest strengths of schedule in the entire country. The Commodores are flying into Hawaii a week earlier to adjust to the time zone difference, an advantage to playing a Week Zero game.
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Vanderbilt brings back plenty of firepower offensively with three running backs, they are replacing Ken Seals with the mobile Mike Wright as the quarterback and upgraded their entire defense from transfers on the defensive line to linebackers and secondary.
The Commodores recorded nine sacks last year (last in NCAA), so anything will be an upgrade. While Hawaii’s strength of the offense is the offensive line, the Rainbow Warriors are without a true quarterback and lost two running backs and three wide outs. The expected starter has not thrown a pass in a game since 2020, so the Bows could be in trouble.
Hawaii does not return any defensive backs with experience, they lost three key linebackers and return one defensive lineman that had more than four tackles last year.
The Hawaii defense could suffer and while Vanderbilt only has two wins in the past two seasons, I like Vandy to get out to a 2-0 start this year with a road win at Hawaii in Week Zero and home win versus Elon in Week 1. The Commodores with Wright at quarterback will be much more dynamic and the Vandy rushing attack should improve and look good in Week Zero.
Vanderbilt has won five-straight as a road favorite and went 4-1 ATS in that span, while Hawaii is 2-8 on the ML and 3-7 ATS over the last 10 as a home dog versus Power-5 schools.
Hawaii has lost three-straight and failed to cover in four consecutive against Power-5 schools as a home underdog.
I grabbed Illinois ML and Vanderbilt ML at -136 odds on PointsBet. I would play this to -150.
This line moved to -8.5 / 9 and I would not play it but opt to do the parlay instead.
Pick: Illinois and Vanderbilt ML Parlay (1u), Vanderbilt -6.5 (1u)
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