Texas (11-2) had their best regular season in recent memory, with their only blemish coming against SEC blue-blood Georgia in the form of a 30-15 loss. UT achieved a 96%+ win expectancy in every contest except for a slowly paced 20-10 slog against @Arkansas (52%). Unfortunately, Texas was unable to avenge their only loss to the Bulldogs, losing a close 22-19 decision to UGA in the SEC Championship. Offensively, the Longhorns rank 8th in SP+, 13th in rushing success rate and 21st in EPA/dropback. Longhorns HC Steve Sarkisian also has the advantage of falling back on a mauling defense that ranks 2nd in the country. UT’s elite secondary ranks 1st in yards per dropback allowed (4.1) and 2nd in EPA/dropback, while their run defense ranks 7th in EPA/rush but also is allowing an elevated 42.3% rushing success rate (61st).
Clemson (10-3) opened the year in ignominious fashion, getting crushed 34-3 to Georgia which was a major setback in their quest for a CFP Playoff berth. However, the Tigers battled back to rattle off six consecutive wins before dropping a 33-21 decision (18%-win expectancy) at home to Louisville that further complicated their hopes of an ACC Championship Game appearance. The Tigers rallied to take their next three games against @VT/Pitt/Citadel but they sorely lacked a signature win heading into their final contest against South Carolina, which they subsequently lost 17-14. Before their thrilling ACC Championship win over SMU, the Tigers’ lone victory over a team with a winning record occurred in Week 12 against @Pitt when they pulled out a close 24-20 decision over the Panthers. CU sports an impressive +16 TO margin (2nd in FBS) and are running the ball extremely effectively, ranking 12th in rush success rate. Defensively Clemson’s secondary is a quality group that is allowing a stingy 55.5% completion rate (14th) and ranks 20th in suppressing explosive pass plays. However, they can be pushed around on the line, ranking 106th with 5.4 YPC allowed, and getting ripped for 11.1 yards per successful rush (119th).
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Game Details and How to watch the College Football Playoff: Clemson at Texas
· Date: Saturday, December 21, 2024
· Time: 4:00 PM EST
· Site: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
· City: Austin, TX
· TV/Streaming: TNT/Max
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Game odds for Clemson at Texas - CFP Playoff
- Moneyline: Texas (-400), Clemson (+325)
- Spread: Texas -11.5
- Over/Under: 51.5 points
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“In five out of Texas’ last seven games Texas has either lost or won by 10 points or less. They’re a run-centric offense with an elite defense that is built to shorten games and grind out victories over quality opponents. Clemson got smoked by Georgia in Week 1 but have since straightened out their offense. The closest comparable game we have for Clemson is South Carolina, which was a competitive contest the Tigers lost 17-14. I think this game is more slowly paced than expected, which means I lean the Under 51.5-point game total.”
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College Football Playoff: Clemson at Texas – QB Matchup
- Texas: The Longhorns boast one of the most prolific quarterback rooms in the country between starter Quinn Ewers and backup Arch Manning. Ewers has completed 66.2% of his throws for 2,665 yards, 7.6 YPA and a 25-to-9 ratio. Despite solid numbers, his PFF passing grade of 71.7 is a stark decline from his 85.6 passing grade a year ago. Ewers is averaging a noticeably low 7.4 air yards per target which ranks 90th out of 93 qualifying signal callers. HC Sarkisian has been fairly conservative with his playcalling now that he has a certifiably elite defense to lean on, with Ewers only clearing 300 passing yards twice in 13 games.
- Clemson: The former #1 overall QB recruit from the 2022 high school class, Cade Klubnik is coming of age in his third season after a lackluster 63.9 PFF passing grade in 2023. Klubnik is connecting on 63.7% of his throws for 7.5 YPA and a pristine 33-to-5 ratio. He is challenging opposing secondaries downfield more liberally this year, increasing his ADOT from 7.0-to-9.7 and earning a commendable 88.9 PFF passing grade that ranks 14th in FBS. Klubnik’s 83rd percentile PFF overall pressure grade leads the country, with just four other signal callers earning a pressure grade in the 70th percentile and none reaching the 80th% threshold besides Klubnik.
Clemson and Texas: Betting trends & recent stats
- Texas is throwing to running backs on 22.4% of team pass attempts, 16th-most in FBS. Quintrevion Wisner has been targeted 46 times this season, 2nd-most among SEC running backs. RB Jaydon Blue has committed 6 fumbles since the 2023 season, which is the most miscues committed by any SEC Running Back over the last two years.
- Texas has averaged 12.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season, 29th-best among FBS skill players. Clemson’s defense has allowed just 10.6 YAC since the 2023 season, tied for 11th-best among FBS defenses.
- Jahdae Barron has intercepted 5 passes this season, tied for 3rd-most among FBS Defensive Backs
- Though true freshman WR Ryan Wingo is only averaging 1.8 receptions per game this year, he has been targeted 9 times in close and late situations, tied for 5th-most among SEC Receivers
- Texas has allowed 4 touchdowns on 216 completions for a 54-to-1 TD-to-completion rate, which ranks #1 in FBS.
- Texas has allowed 88.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season, best in the SEC.
- Clemson WR Antonio Williams has reeled in 10 touchdown passes this season, tied for 2nd-most among Power Conference skill players. Miami WR Xavier Restrepo led Power Four wideouts with 11 TD receptions.
- Clemson has thrown for 3,501 passing yards in 13 games this season, 20th-best among FBS teams. Texas’s defense has allowed just 142.9 passing yards per game this season, tops among FBS defenses.
- Clemson has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 26 of their 429 carries this season, the worst mark among Power Four programs.
- Cade Klubnik has completed 71% of passes (34 completions/48 net pass attempts) on 3rd and long this season, 3rd-best among Power Conference Quarterbacks.
- Clemson has allowed first downs on just 25% of pass attempts since the 2023 season, best in FBS.
- Clemson’s TEs averaged 7.2 targets per game this season, the 3rd-highest mark among ACC TEs. Texas’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs this season, tied for 19th-worst among FBS defenses.
BetMGM College Football Highlights: First Round
Most bet games (tickets)
1. Ohio State-Tennessee
2. Indiana-Notre Dame
3. SMU-Penn State
4. Clemson-Texas
Most bet teams (tickets)
1. Tennessee +7.5
2. Indiana +7.5
3. SMU +8.5
4. Clemson +10.5
Most bet teams (handle)
1. Tennessee +7.5
2. Indiana +7.5
3. SMU +8.5
4. Texas -10.5
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