Let’s all take a moment to celebrate how great Brian Harman was at The Open Championship. Harman took the outright lead on Friday and never looked back. Winning The Open is impressive; winning it by 6-strokes is out of this world. Congratulations to him and everyone who got a piece of the +14900 outright ticket on him. Now that golf’s final major of the year is behind everyone, we focus on the 3M Open, one of two remaining regular reason tournaments. After next week’s Wyndham Championship, only the top 70 golfers will head to TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN, for the first FedEx Cup Playoff event, the St. Jude Championship.
This week’s 3M Open will be played at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, MN. It’s important to note that a few golfers will have extra motivation as they vie for a spot in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. There’s probably none more motivated than Justin Thomas. While being ranked 75th, the struggling Thomas has agreed to play this week and next in hopes of securing enough points to compete in the playoffs. Thomas is not alone in the hunt for playoff qualification, but he’s the main golfer I’d trust to perform better when the pressure is on.
At TPC Twin Cities, handling pressure will be one of the more crucial attributes this week. There’s water literally everywhere on this course. There are 15 holes where water comes directly into play. It’s one of those courses where no lead is safe, and any wayward shot can derail the entire round. Accuracy and driving distance will be important again this week. Like any other TPC course, ball striking will be at a premium this week. When Tony Finau won last year, he gained +4.9 strokes off the tee and another +7.9 on approach. Strong ball strikers who can get a little hot with their putter are who to attack this week.
Key Metrics Correlating to Success:
- Driving Distance
- Fairways Gained
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Birdies or Better Gained
- Sand Saves
- GIR Gained
- SG: Putting
2023 3M Open Outright Bets
Sepp Straka +3300
Never in my life did I think I would be here betting Straka to win a tournament at +3300. The University of Georgia product has refined his game and feels like a serious threat to win whenever he tees it up. Straka holds the top spot in my model primarily due to his great accuracy off the tee and his ability to bury birdies in bunches. It’s said that getting the second PGA Tour win is more difficult than getting the first. After his victory at the Honda Classic, Straka missed 11 cuts to close out 2022. However, after losing strokes on approach in three straight events in June, Straka’s game looks to be in a great spot, especially considering a win at the John Deere and a T2 finish at The Open in his last two events. His ball striking over the past 10 events makes him one of my favorite bets of the week.
Vincent Norrman +7000
I’m only putting 0.2 units on Norrman to win this week, but it’s for a good reason. When I think about the past four champions of this tournament, most of them share similar qualities. They are crazy long off the tee, exploded on approach, and their putters got hot at the right time. Norrman is long off the tee, and in his last two events, his approach play, and putting has been solid. After picking up his first career Tour win at the Barbasol, he went out and finished T25 at the Barracuda Championship. It gives me the feeling that he’s laser-focused and can keep winning. His pathway to victory this week is clear, bomb and gouge. A small wager could still lead to a pretty tasty payout.
