After turning in the only bogey-free round of the week, Hideki Matsuyama is officially the man to beat at the Masters.
Matsuyama turned it on after a brief weather delay Saturday, polishing off a 7-under 65 that included an eagle and two birdies across Nos. 15-17. It moved him to 11 under for the week and gave him a four-shot lead over four players (Xander Schauffele, Justin Rose, Will Zalatoris, Marc Leishman) as he looks to win his first career major at age 29.
Matsuyama started the week at +6000 odds and teed off Thursday at +5000. An opening-round 69 dropped him to +1400, while he moved back to +1800 after a second-round 71 that left him three shots off the lead. Now that he’s four clear of the field, Matsuyama is a -115 favorite to finish the job Sunday:
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Updated Masters odds (via PointsBet Sportsbook)
-115: Hideki Matsuyama
+500: Xander Schauffele
+800: Will Zalatoris
+1000: Justin Rose
+1200: Marc Leishman
+2000: Jordan Spieth
+2500: Corey Conners
+6600: Brian Harman
+10000: Tony Finau
+30000: Si Woo Kim
The four players chasing Matsuyama at 7 under combine for a single major, that being Rose’s 2013 U.S. Open title. Schauffele finished T-2 at this event two years ago, while Leishman lost a playoff at the 2015 Open. Zalatoris is looking to become the first Masters rookie to win since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Matsuyama finished T-30 last week in San Antonio, and he hasn’t been inside the top 10 since a runner-up finish at the Houston Open in November. Once as high as No. 2 in the world, he’s currently 25th and his Masters record includes low amateur honors in 2011 along with top-7 finishes in both 2015 and 2016.
Round 4 Plays
At -115, I can’t bring myself to back Matsuyama given he’s trying to chase down his first major title, and the first men’s major for his native Japan, while dealing with what can sometimes be a wobbly putting stroke. So instead I’ll look to back one of the chase pack, which includes Marc Leishman who I grabbed at +2000 last night. Of the other choices on the board, I’m finally interested in a piece of the first- and second-round leader.
Justin Rose (+1000) to win
I was impressed by Rose’s ability to keep things on the rails late Saturday evening, holing clutch putts and making timely up-and-downs to keep Matsuyama within reach. Of the top five players he’s the only one with a major title to his credit, and his playoff loss here in 2017 serves as a testament to just how quickly things can shift at Augusta National once the pressures of the final round are applied.
Rose has yet to replicate the torrid form he flashed during an opening-round 65, but he has the major mettle to handle a variety of situations that might come his way. I’m not ready to buy into Zalatoris as a potential first-time winner, and while Schauffele certainly poses a strong threat I’d rather side with Rose at double the price.
Henrik Stenson (-110) over Stewart Cink
This is an interesting pairing Sunday given the stakes: no, neither man will win the green jacket. But the top 12 and ties get an invite for 2022, which could be a particularly enticing incentive for both. Stenson has played every Masters since 2006 but is in the final year of his five-year exemption for winning the 2016 Open, while Cink is playing just his second Masters since 2014 after winning in Napa.
They’ve both largely over-performed through 54 holes, but tomorrow I’ll back the Swede who has really come a long way with his ball-striking since posting an 85 last month at The Players. Stenson has missed only five fairways all week, while Cink has been much less accurate off the tee. Now, accuracy isn’t everything at Augusta National - just look at Matsuyama’s 65 that included just five fairways. But I think the body of work has been more solid and consistent from Stenson, and I expect him to get the better of his fellow Open champ Sunday while potentially punching his ticket for a return next spring.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+105) over Tommy Fleetwood
It’s a similar line of thinking in this matchup, as Fitzpatrick has been the more consistent ball-striker among the two men who fell back a bit with Saturday rounds of 1-over 73. Fleetwood picked up a couple of unexpected shots with his opening-round ace on No. 16, and he’s been a bit more wild off the tee through three rounds while gaining ground with his irons. Fitzpatrick has been rock solid off the tee, missing just five total fairways, and his nifty short game has bailed him out on more than one occasion. I think that trend could continue Sunday and will take the former U.S. Amateur champion in what’s expected to be a close contest with his fellow Englishman.
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