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The end of the swing season is upon us as 156 players are set to play in the final event of the 2021 calendar year. Making the trip east to St. Simons Island, Georgia, the Sea Island Golf Club will once against play host to the PGA Tour.
As tournament host and proverbial Sea Island Mafia boss, Davis Love III, is set to return to action after missing last year’s tournament due to an injury. Redesigning the Plantation Course with the help of his brother in 2019, Love III grew up on the island when his father moved his family there in the late 1960’s.
Since then, the mafia has only grown as Tour veterans Brian Harman, Jonathan Byrd, Matt Kuchar, and Zach Johnson call the small island home. Filling the role of consigliere, their presence has led more and more players to flock to Sea Island as time has passed.
Georgia Bulldogs such as Harris English, Hudson Swafford, Keith Mitchell, and Greyson Sigg make up the bulk of the SEC contingency with Patton Kizzire hailing from Auburn and Trey Mullinax and Michael Thompson representing the University of Alabama.
Left out of the College Football Playoff discussions are not only the Oklahoma Sooners, but also J.T. Poston of Western Carolina and Andrew Novak of Wofford as the two play out of Sea Island as well. While there are a number of possible victors amongst this list of residents – and surely some omitted – none have yet to breakthrough in their home event.
Instead, the likes of Robert Streb, Tyler Duncan, Charles Howell III, Austin Cook, Mackenzie Hughes, Kevin Kisner, and Chris Kirk have claimed victory in Georgia. There are some varying ties to the Peach State in this crop of winners, namely the college connection with Kisner and Kirk.
But most recently, it was Streb who was able to get the better of Kisner in last year’s tournament via a playoff for his second win on Sea Island – a common theme at the RSM Classic as five of the last seven editions have required extra holes.
None of those listed above are hardly considered long as accuracy tends to reign supreme at both the Plantation Course and the Seaside Course at Sea Island. Alternating the first two rounds, players will take to the more coastal, links-style Seaside Course over the weekend.
Also host to the highly coveted Jones Cup and SEC Championship, a putting contest of some sort typically unfolds on the Seaside Course. Playing as a par-70 – unlike the Plantation’s par-72 – and just about 7,000 yards, the main defense on the Tom Fazio re-design is the wind.
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That could play into the hands of Scottie Scheffler, this week’s favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook. Squandering the 54-hole lead last week in Houston, the Texan returns to Sea Island for the second time in his career as he captured a top 5 finish in the 2019 RSM Classic.
+1100 is too short for my liking and the same can be said for Webb Simpson at +1200 despite three podium finishes in his career on Sea Island. There is little interest until we reach a player who I believe is capable of bucking the residential curse.
That would be Harris English (+2500) as he comes in a bit under the radar, but fully capable of claiming victory. With +3000 still floating around at certain spots, the lackluster start to his swing season may be cause for concern, but is something I am willing to overlook.
As last season, he was arguably in contention as often as anyone not named Jon Rahm. Only able to capture two victories, the 32-year-old put together solid performances at the Palmetto Championship, U.S. Open, and WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Some may have a sour taste in their mouths given his final round woes – myself included – but over the last two years, he has thrived in the fall months.
Not the case thus far, English missed the cut at the Shriners Children’s Open via –6.0 Strokes Gained: Putting with a new grip on the wand. He followed it up with a WD in the final round of THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT, citing a back injury. In those five rounds, he struck the ball adequately and simply underperformed on the greens. Finishing in a tie for sixth last year – his best RSM Classic result – English has had time to rest, recover, and put some wear and tear on his putter, making this a buy spot for me.
Adam Scott (+3300) and Joaquin Niemann (+3300) intrigued me for a brief moment as well as Talor Gooch (+3300), who we are finally inching towards normalcy with, but were eventually passed on. Instead, the 2015 champion, Kevin Kisner (+4000) gets the nod as some early steam has come on the recent Wyndham Championship winner.
Opening at +5000 at various locations, PointsBet has held steady at +4000 which appears to be the best price in the market. Never one to wow you on paper, Kisner has been rather poor since his victory at Sedgefield Country Club. Two missed cuts and two finishes outside the top-50 in his last four outings, the 37-year-old has yet to return to a course in his wheelhouse.
Liberty National, Caves Valley, TPC Summerlin, and The Summit Club were never venues where Kisner would thrive. Unlike Sea Island where point-A to point-B golf will be required and is a spot where the South Carolina native can lean on his wedge play and timely putting.
Boasting a strong history at other short venues such as TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town Golf Links, and Waialae Country Club, Kisner’s lack of length will be no issue for him this week. A strong par-4 player and a proven winner when in the thick of things, Kisner always needs to be considered when the Tour stops in Sea Island. Holding a career RSM Classic scoring average of 67.56, Kisner will look to make his 11th appearance a memorable one and add to his decade of success here.
Originally, Kisner was not the only previous champion to don us with his presence as Mackenzie Hughes (+6000) was someone seriously considered. A winner in 2016, the Canadian is enjoying a nice swing season with four finishes inside the top-35. Enough most weeks, Hughes’ lack of form in Sea Island in the four years since his win was too much to overcome.
Keeping with the theme of Georgia ties however, Matt Kuchar (+6600) will make an appearance as we were invested in him at the World Wide Technology Championship to no avail. Making an offer simply too good to refuse, the former Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket has steadily improved in each outing this season and is listed as high as +8000.
With his three finishes this season reading T-36, T-35, T-22, I like Kuchar to continue this trend in a home game on Sea Island. Splitting fairways with regularity, the irons have started to show some signs of life as well. Posting +3.3 SG: Approach at TPC Summerlin, the greens in regulation figures fell a touch in Mexico, but am willing to chance they return this week.
Possessing six top-30 finishes and only two missed cuts in his nine career outings at the RSM Classic, like Kisner, this is a week where Kuchar has the capability to compete. Victories at Waialae CC, El Camaleon GC, Harbour Town GL, and TPC Sawgrass cement this line of thinking and thus his position in our selections.
There was some thought put into Robert Streb (+7000) given his recent form and obvious affinity for this place. As well as Branden Grace (+8000) as the number seems too long for the South African, but I tend to shy away from players who are dealing with something called Costochondritis. Others on the short list included Aaron Rai (+9000) and Emiliano Grillo (+9000), but the big Swede was calling my name.
A perfect 5-for-5 this swing season in weekend appearances, Henrik Norlander (+10000) grabbed my attention. A two-day total of 10-over 150 over the weekend at the Houston Open is less than ideal, but the rest of his fall form is what we are looking at.
A T-4 finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship and a top-20 effort at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP headline his play up to this point. Arriving off an abysmal Sunday, Sea Island should be just what the doctor ordered as five of the last 10 RSM Classic winners have in fact been first-timers.
Making his sixth RSM Classic appearance, the former Augusta State standout has taken to Sea Island after missing the cut in his debut. Part of the five-man playoff in 2016, Norlander fell just short of Hughes in his second time around. Making the cut in each instance since, the Olympian found the top-5 in his last showing in 2019.
While there are only three measured rounds for each tournament from a strokes-gained perspective, we have yet to see a peak Norlander iron performance in Georgia. If able to muster up something in the neighborhood of +8.4 or +7.6 SG: Approach as he did at the Sanderson Farms Championship and Barabsol Championship, the rest of his game should follow suit. Historically, a bit suspect on and around-the-green, that has actually been the area of his game where he has looked the sharpest on Sea Island.
We mentioned Kisner would not be the only previous champion we would go to battle with as Tyler Duncan’s (+12500) recent form is too good to ignore. Playing in the final season of his 2019 RSM Classic win exemption, the former Purdue Boilmaker has shot out of the 2021-2022 gates.
A top-20 finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship has since been followed up with a top-50 showing in Mexico and a top-30 last week in Houston. The entire bag appears to be cooperating at the moment, gaining strokes in each tee-to-green metric in Mississippi and Texas.
One of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball, I am willing to forgive Duncan’s missed cut last season in his defense effort. A foreign concept at the time, we have seen before with other players that once Sea Island fits your eye, it tends to for quite a while. Arriving in much better form this time around, a repeat of his 2019 performance is not out of the realm of possibilities.
Outright Selections (Odds Via PointsBet):
Harris English (+2500)
Kevin Kisner (+4000)
Matt Kuchar (+6600)
Henrik Norlander (+10000)
Tyler Duncan (+12500)
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