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We have a splendid baseball slate in store for Thursday, and it’s about time we get to some best bets. Here’s how I’m seeing the card.
Seattle Mariners (+120) vs. Houston Astros (-140) Total: 8.5
This is a solid spot for the Mariners to finally pick up a game on the Astros. Why? Well, Jose Urquidy will be pitching here for the Astros, and he owns a 4.79 xERA in his 18 starts this season. On top of that, he’s walking around with an 18.2% strikeout rate — considerable below league average — and a .267 expected batting average.
The Mariners didn’t fare very well against Urquidy the last time they saw him, but they did manage to get a ton of traffic on the bases and even hit a homer. They have 12 home runs in the last two weeks to rank 10th in baseball and will be in a hitter-friendly park in Houston.
This is a great spot for them to pounce. On top of that they have the talented Logan Gilbert on the hill, who hasn’t been amazing all year but has figured things out of late. He’s got 19 strikeouts in his last three starts — spanning 17 innings — and should be able to do enough here.
Edge: Mariners +120
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Chicago Cubs (+120) vs. San Francisco Giants (-140) Total: 8
The Cubs are rolling, and the Giants are not. They’re both on streaks of the opposite kind, but I do think this is where the buck stops.
The Giants will be trotting out an objectively better pitcher here in the form of Alex Wood, whose peripherals are strong and who has really calmed down over the last four starts with just three earned runs in those 20 2/3 innings. That’s a lot better for the guy with a 3.68 xERA, and for a guy with a solid 24.3% strikeout rate.
Chicago has cut back on strikeouts, but still doesn’t pack a real punch in the power department. That’s unlikely to change given who’s on this roster, and against a guy who can bring it in the strikeout department I think things could change.
Edge: Giants -140
