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Casey Mize O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Mariners
Casey Mize gets his second start versus the Mariners as he hopes for a repeat performance from the first.
In the first meeting of his career with Seattle, Mize went a career-long 7.2 innings and tied career-highs with 27 total batters faced and seven strikeouts.
Mize has struck out six or seven hitters in the last four games, combining for 27 Ks in 26.0 innings, including Seattle. After Seattle, Mize struck out 20 in 18.1 innings.
Over the past six starts, Mize has hit the Over 5.5 Ks in four games (66.7%). He is pitching his best ball lately and I like the matchup here with a less than stellar Mariners squad.
NBC’s model projects Mize to record 6.0 strikeouts in 6.1 innings versus Seattle.
Mize has pitched 6.0 or more innings in only one home game this season. However, those starts came against the Twins, Royals (twice) and Yankees - some of the toughest K teams. This home start should really excite Mize, who is hot right now.
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On the season, Seattle has the ninth-highest strikeout percentage versus right-handed pitchers (25.8%) and ranks 21st in wRC+ (88). The Mariners rank 29th in batting average versus right-handed pitchers (.209), only ahead of the Orioles (.208). Seattle also owns the second-fewest hits (285) versus right-handed pitchers on the year.
Mize averages 0.83 strikeouts per inning this season, but that number is 1.10 over the last three games and 1.03 in the previous four. Since May, Mize has averaged 0.86, up from his 0.76 strikeouts per inning average in April.
Mize is continually getting better, and an interesting stat to note is his performances versus the same opponent.
He had one strikeout in the first meeting versus the Royals over 4.2 innings, then four and six Ks in 12.2 innings over the next two meetings. Mize had six Ks in 6.0 innings against the White Sox and posted six again in 7.0 innings during the second meeting.
There has not been a drop off in the second or third meetings against an opponent, which is interesting for a 24-year-old pitcher.
Wednesday’s start will be the second against Seattle, and while I do not expect him to replicate 7.2 innings, I can see six to seven strikeouts again.
The Tigers’ second-year pitcher did allow three home runs in his last start against the White Sox. Mize allowed seven on the season up until that point - one to Seattle. The Mariners have only hit five homers in the last six games and 14 in the previous 14 - Mize should be fine in that regard.
Luckily, Seattle is hitting .218 over the past six games (24th) and struck out 61 times (T-7th). The 61 Ks in six games is tied for third-most in a six-game span of any team right now.
The Mariners are hitting .236 over the last 14 games, so the past week has been a rough patch. Seattle is 2-5 on the ML over the last seven games, while Detroit has won four of Mize’s last six starts.
Back Mize to go Over his strikeout prop versus Seattle’s cold bats.
Pick: Casey Mize Over 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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