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It’s been quite some time since we’ve had regular-season baseball, and after a lockout and a wild free agency, the new MLB season is upon us. PointsBet Sportsbook is offering win Totals for every team in the league, so John Venezia is breaking down the numbers along with his pick for each team. Plus, he offers some picks and value plays for some player awards.
You can check out his picks form the American League right here, as well.
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves - O/U 91.5 Wins
The 2021 Atlanta Braves were a model of resilience and fortitude after winning the whole thing when superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. went down for the season with a torn ACL. The optimistic side of things has him slated to return at some point in May, but regardless they have shown they can win without him. With a great mix of young talent and depth across the board, the Braves are poised to yet again be one of the best teams in the NL even with Freddie Freeman in LA. Over 91.5 wins.
Miami Marlins - O/U 76.5 Wins
Miami hit a meltdown. Derek Jeter peaced out, they missed out on bringing in some big-time free agents other than Jorge Soler, and are lacking direction. Still, they managed to become a competitor last season (in the first half) behind a ferocious young pitching staff that can quietly become one of the league’s best. The lineup probably has a lot of ebbs and flows in 2022 making it difficult to think they will finish better than fourth place in the NL East. Under 76.5 wins.
New York Mets - O/U 90 Wins
I am a Mets fan to my core. I backed them to win it all in the preseason last year, and they melted down like Shane Falco in the Sugar Bowl. Previously, I thought to myself, “despite the pick up of Mad Max Scherzer and the best 1-2 duo he forms with Jacob deGrom, I just don’t know if it will be enough at the end of the day.” Now of course, as the curse of the Mets strikes again, deGrom will miss at least a month optimistically with the possibility of Scherzer being less than 100% with a new hamstring injury. Even with a few solid acquisitions on offense in Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha, as well as Robinson Cano returning, that did not guarantee the Mets a playoff spot. Now, with their ace on the shelf, good luck. Under 90 wins.
Philadelphia Phillies - 86.5 O/U Wins
There is not much I like about the city of Philadelphia. However, this is the team I am circling for the 2022 season. They are arguably the Toronto Blue Jays of the NL, built very similar overall. Like the Jays, Philly has at least five or six players that can hit 25+ homers apiece, not to mention a strong top of the rotation. It also seems like their brutal 2021 bullpen is much improved. The Phillies also get brownie points for signing one of my favorite players in the MLB, Nick Castellanos… or who I like to call “The Walking Extra Base Hit.” I seriously think they are one of the best bets to not only win the NL (+1500) but the whole thing (+3300). Over 86.5 wins.
Washington Nationals - O/U 71.5 Wins
As much as I would love to make fun of the Nats, they do have some solid pieces. Juan Soto, of course, is one of the best players in the game. The potential of Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz combining for 60 home runs is also entertaining, at the least. Ultimately though, it has been a quick and hard fall from grace for the 2019 World Series champs. It would not shock me to see them become trade deadline sellers again this July. After a 65-win season in 2021, it is difficult envisioning they have more than 70 on the horizon in 2022. Under 71.5.
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NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs - O/U 75.5 Wins
The Cubbies held a nuclear fire sale last July, which left all their young gun talents to finish out the rest of 2021 as an audition for 2022. However, Chicago did acquire a couple of studs this winter in SP Marcus Stroman through free agency and winning the Seiya Suzuki sweepstakes (from Japan) for a 5 year/$85 million-dollar payday. It is likely still going to be a multi-year process for the Cubs to return to the threat they were, so low-70s is the way to go. Under 75.5 wins.
Cincinnati Reds - O/U 72.5 Wins
Cincy had such a great nucleus of players the last couple of years; I wish they went HAM and pushed their chips to the middle of the table. As it happens though, they did basically the opposite. Even with a lot of young talent like Jonathan India and Nick Senzel to go along with veteran sluggers Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas, there is not much reason to believe the Reds will exceed their 83 wins from a season ago. Though, they will still likely make for some entertaining games in that wiffleball park of theirs. Over 72.5 wins.
Milwaukee Brewers - O/U 89.5 Wins
One of the few teams in the MLB built inverted like the Cleveland Guardians, the Brewers are anchored by star-studded pitching with one of the best rotations and bullpens in the MLB. With reigning NL CY Young winner Corbin Burnes returning to defend his title, the Brew Crew has a shot to match their win total of 95 from last year. With the addition of Andrew McCutchen and the hopeful MVP-like return of Christian Yelich, the Milwaukee offense could quietly be a very improved unit, provided they manage to limit the massive potential number of strikeouts from their power lineup where they had the seventh-most (1,465) in 2021. This could be a team that is knocking on the door to represent the NL in October. Over 89.5 wins.
Pittsburgh Pirates - O/U 65.5 Wins
Somebody has to do it. The Pirates are filled with a lot of no-name players, but like usual they hold a few true young talents that they will probably end up selling for a carton of Marlboro’s and a Jell-O cup like 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes. It is all but guaranteed to be ugly in Pittsburgh for what has seemingly felt like forever. Sixty-one wins in 2021 sounds like a good number in 2022 as well. Under 65.5 wins.
St. Louis Cardinals - O/U 85.5 Wins
Do you know how bad I want the Cardinals to win? I have had a couple of World Series tickets on them over the past five years. But just like a child has to one day give up the dream of becoming an astronaut and walking on the moon, I too must let go of the silly notion that St. Louis will be hoisting The Commissioner’s Trophy any time soon. The comparison that comes to mind for this team is the LA Angels with their loaded lineup, and highly-questionable pitching. The lone true bright spot in the rotation is Jack Flaherty, who recently received a PRP injection in his shoulder and has a return status of TBD. Bummer. The Cardinals should remain a threat to make some noise but are unlikely to follow through with anything serious. Over 85.5 wins.
NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks - O/U 66.5 Wins
After a 52-win season in 2021, this is a true rebuilding team to its core at the moment. Every five years or so though, the Diamondbacks put together a good roster and have a team that can win a lot of games. That time is about three years away though. Loaded with some good young talent led by top prospect Seth Beer, Arizona likely is not going anywhere this season but could have a bright future ahead. Under 66.5 wins.
Colorado Rockies - O/U 69.5 Wins
Kris Bryant comes in (why?), Trevor Story goes out. It is going to be another rough season in the Mile High City. Aside from Bryant, possibly Charlie Blackmon, and even C.J. Cron, the Rockies have little firepower to field a semi-average ball club. Their pitching is an absolute disaster. This is going to be a long season for Colorado. Good luck reaching 70 wins. Under 69.5.
Los Angeles Dodgers - O/U 96.5 Wins
Buying wins is an LA thing, but whatever gets the job done. As if their roster was not good enough, the Dodgers brought in one of the best hitters in baseball in Freddie Freeman. That is just not fair. Currently projected as the highest win total in the MLB, the Dodgers are yet again the betting favorite to win the whole thing (+500). They literally have an All-Star lineup and an above-average pitching staff. I am not usually a fan of taking totals that high, but this team is too good and likely to repeat their 106 wins from 2021. Over 96.5 wins.
San Diego Padres - O/U 87.5 Wins
Coming into 2021 as one of the top dogs in the entire MLB, the overrated Padres faded away in the second half of the season like vintage Dirk Nowitski in the low post. San Diego was one of the winners of last year’s offseason, thus drawing a lot of tickets and popularity, but I felt that despite all of the talent, it was too good to be true. This year is already off to a horrible start with superstar SS Fernando Tatis Jr. likely sidelined for about three months from a broken wrist thanks to a motorcycle accident, ala Ben Roethlisberger. However, the rotation could be one of the best if Blake Snell regains the Cy Young form he had in Tampa Bay. At the end of the day, I expect San Diego to be better than their 79 wins from a season ago, but will fall too far behind to challenge LA for the division. Under 87.5 wins.
San Francisco Giants - O/U 84.5 Wins
The darling team of 2021, the San Francisco Giants held down first place in the NL for virtually the entire season. Most people, including myself, believed the Giants would fade down the stretch, but they finished as the NL West leader. It is a tough proposition repeating the success they had a season ago, but San Fran has me believing it is no fluke. Though I still feel they are not as good as they lead on, their lineup and pitching staff are good enough and they have an excellent and resilient manager in Gabe Kapler. One of the main changeups was switching Kevin Gausman for Carlos Rodon from the White Sox and the Giants should be able to sniff 90 wins if they manage to stay healthy. Over 84.5 wins.
NL Winner: Philadelphia Phillies over LA Dodgers
Most Bet: Mets, Braves, Dodgers
Player Awards
MVP: Freddie Freeman (+1200)
Value Pick: Nick Castellanos (+3500)
Most Bet: Ronald Acuña Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Cy Young: Max Scherzer (+600)
Value Pick: Zack Wheeler (+1200)
Most Bet: Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer
Rookie of the Year: Seiya Suzuki (+500)
Value Pick: Seth Beer (+3000)
Most Bet: CJ Abrams and Oneil Cruz
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