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It’s been quite some time since we’ve had regular-season baseball, and after a lockout and a wild free agency, the new MLB season is upon us. PointsBet Sportsbook is offering team and player props, so John Venezia is breaking down the numbers and sharing his favorite bets.
You can check out his American League win Totals picks here and his National League win Totals picks here.
(All odds via PointsBet)
Kyle Schwarber O30.5 Home Runs (-110)
The big boy can hit some TATERS! Despite “only” hitting 30 bombs three times in his career, Kyle Schwarber has tremendous pop. His biggest obstacle has been missing ball games (due to a few reasons, but mainly injuries). Schwarber not only joins a loaded Philadelphia Phillies team that has almost no weak spots and plays in a hitters’ park, but also now has a chance to play a lot more games as the DH thanks to the new rule change across MLB. If Schwarber can clock in at least 140 contests this season, he has a realistic shot to launch 40+ long balls.
Kris Bryant O30.5 Home Runs (-110)
For the love of the game or the money? Joining the Colorado Rockies was definitely about getting that paper for Kris Bryant. Having won the NL MVP and a World Series in 2016, KB decided it was time to get PAID. Now that the Rockies let SS Trevor Story walk in free agency and sign with the Boston Red Sox, Bryant becomes the clear alpha dog in the lineup. Aside from the monumental advantage of playing in Coors Field that has generously boosted stats for the likes of Story, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez and even Nolan Arenado over the years, Bryant also has the ability to drop nukes. Every season in which he logged 147 or more games, KB hit at least 26 home runs. With decent lineup protection in Blackmon, CJ Cron and Randall Grichuk, he should be able to send 35 or more over the fence, assuming he stays healthy.
Nick Castellanos to lead MLB in Home Runs (+8000)
This is obviously a wild long shot that is unlikely to happen… or is it? Fine, I am one of the bigger Nick Castellanos stans that you will find in the media, but hear me out. Aside from being one of the best hitters in the game, in 138 games last season, Castellanos launched 34 long balls. Round his games played to about 150, which is possible with the newly appointed DH spot in the NL, and he is a real candidate to be in the 40’s. Playing in what should be a better lineup than the 2021 Cincinnati Reds, Castellanos has a shot to be in the upper echelon of power hitters in 2022. He’s definitely worth a play at this price.
Fun Fact: Since 2017, Castellanos has at least 72 extra-base hits in every season (excluding the 60-game season in 2020).
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Whit Merrifield to lead MLB in Hits (+1500)
The silent killer. Only true MLB fans know about Whit Merrifield because he plays in Kansas City. He’s like the St. Louis Rams’ Steven Jackson. He puts up numbers, but a lot of people don’t really know to what extent. Let me fill you in really quick: despite a “down year” by his standards, Merrifield had the fourth-most hits in the majors last season (184). In fact, since 2018, he has not finished worse than seventh in this department, and actually led the league in back-to-back seasons (2018 and 2019). With the likelihood that he once again commands the leadoff spot in the Royals’ lineup, Merrifield is as good a bet as any to lead the MLB in hits.
Whit Merrifield O180.5 Hits (-115)
Refer to the above synopsis. Whit the Hit is my bet to lead MLB in this area. If he is going to do so, he likely needs to notch at least 185 base knocks. Excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season (60 games), Merrifield has at least 184 base knocks in every season since 2018. In addition to his Cal Ripken, Jr.-like approach of playing every game (he has only missed four games since 2018), Merrifield has logged at least 632 at-bats every season in that same time frame. Just unheard of.
Dylan Cease to lead MLB in Strikeouts (+1400)
Finding true value among the AL pitchers was a challenge, but I ultimately settled on Dylan Cease. Of course, the horses like Gerrit Cole, Robbie Ray and Shane Bieber have way too short of odds to take preseason. Anyone who watched Cease last season knows he is a star on the rise. Not only is he poised to take the next step after a strong 2021 campaign, but he also pitches in one of the easiest divisions in the league where he can rack up a ton of punchouts against teams that combined for 5,564 K’s. Cease’s stellar 226 strikeouts across 165.2 innings should increase dramatically if he is able to log about 30 more innings. Not only was his total punchouts good for seventh-best in MLB last year, but his 12.3 K/9 was behind only Corbin Burnes. Barring more injuries like last season, Cease will need to finish with closer to 280 K’s to have a chance. As my AL Cy Young pick for 2022, I am not counting him out.
Dylan Cease O205.5 Strikeouts (+100)
It seems interesting that Cease is even money to notch 206 K’s coming off a 226-strikeout campaign. With Lance Lynn out for a couple of months, Cease should slot into the two spot in the rotation behind Lucas Giolito. Health is a huge factor of course, so starting 32-34 games will be paramount. While the AL Central has improved on paper, Cease’s 12.6 K/9 from a season ago could help him pile up punchouts against what was largely a weak division in 2021. Ultimately though, there is a chance he does not repeat his K/9 rate, meaning he will need to log closer to 200 innings pitched this season. This should be the year Dylan Cease has his coming out party.
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Seattle Mariners to make the playoffs (+165)
90 wins a season ago with nothing to show for it. 2022 is a new season though, and the Mariners are here to prove 2021 was no fluke. With major additions like reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez, Seattle is making up for staying silent at last year’s trade deadline. In a winnable division, the Mariners have the lineup and pitching necessary to usurp the crown from the Houston Astros. With young guns like Kyle Lewis and Julio Rodriguez in the fold, Seattle is the sleeper team nobody is talking about.
Seattle Mariners to win the AL West (+450)
See above. The price is juicy, the division is weak aside from Houston, and Seattle is hungry. The Los Angeles Angels for the 11th year in a row are being overhyped with no real reliable pitching. That leaves the Astros as the main rival. Houston’s pitching is more questionable than how we still allow Rob Manfred to be the commissioner. For the value, the Mariners are too good to be passed up. As long as 2021 was no fluke, Seattle could be primed to make a deep postseason run.
Julio Rodriguez to win AL MVP (+9000)
A top-three prospect in all of baseball, Julio Rodriguez was given the green light about his Opening Day roster spot by manager Scott Servais just a few days before the first game of the season. With the J-Rod show officially here, Rodriguez has a legitimate shot to play a full season as a rookie, if he stays healthy. Since you have gotten this far, you clearly see my love for the Mariners in 2022. Julio is going to have to be a big part of that. While it is extremely unlikely he becomes just the third player ever to win the MVP as a rookie, Rodriguez is poised to burst onto the scene. Ironically, the last player to accomplish this feat was another Seattle Mariner by the name of Ichiro Suzuki all the way back in 2001. With the uncanny and effortless power he possesses, Rodriguez leading the MLB in home runs at +9000 also seems to be a price worth playing. This kid is going to be special.
Philadelphia Phillies to win the NL (+3300)
I mean, what did you expect? Two prior plays were about Philly’s biggest acquisitions mashing a crazy amount of taters. The NL is top heavy with the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers. But what about the Phillies? They have a case for the best lineup in baseball top to bottom, a one-two pitching punch of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola that could be top 10 at their best and an improved bullpen on paper. Sure, these odds are longish for a reason, namely, the pitching. People need to see real improvement in the back half of the rotation and pen before they are sold, so I understand it. The additions of Brad Hand and Corey Knebel should be major upgrades from last season. Philly also expect big things from its third starter Ranger Suárez. This Phillies team could run with anybody in the NL if its pitching holds up.
New York Yankees to miss the playoffs (+300)
Oh baby, I love to rock the boat. Primadonna Yankee fans think every year is “their year.” Yeah, okay. The story is as old as Cain and Abel at this point: good lineup, no pitching. After Gerrit Cole, who are the Yankees relying on? Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino -- who has not really pitched in almost three years -- and Jameson Taillon, who is like the walking mummy from Spongebob? Give me a break. This division is probably just as good as last year, if not better. The Yankees, and Red Sox for that matter, won 92 games in 2021 and still finished eight games behind the Rays. Not to mention that 91-win Toronto was only one game behind second and third place in the AL East and still missed out on the dance. New York barely made it last season. I think the Yankees not only go under their 91.5 win total, but could miss the postseason altogether.
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