Prop Bets
There can be only one winner of every NASCAR race and typically top-three odds are minimal enough that wagering on them is not really worth the risk. There should be an exception, however, if you have a high-degree of confidence in one of your picks.
If Kyle Larson (+625 for the outright victory at PointsBet Sportsbook) is a favorite to win, you may as well supplement that bet with a wager for him to finish among the top three at +170. Larson is the only driver this season to have swept the top-five on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks.
One can go broke betting hunches, but there is room for intuition if it is based in reality. Kyle Busch’s (+1100) long odds for the outright win drag his top-three number to +325 and there is enough Return on Investment (ROI) there to warrant a bet. Busch has struggled to find Victory Lane in the past two seasons, but his last two efforts on 1.5-milers ended in the top five.
The same is true for top-five wagers as those among the top three. Respond to your level of confidence. Larson is favored well enough that his top-five odds are -107, so there is no bet to be had there. But Busch lands at +160 and could supplement your weekly strategy.
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Chase Elliott (+900) and Joey Logano (+1000) land at +135 for a top-five this week. Their teams are strong enough to justify a modest bet. The same is true for Ryan Blaney (+900) with a +125 for a top-five.
Similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks are not typically kind to dark horse drivers. Unless your betting strategy requires a longshot pick each week for the outright win, they should be avoided on courses like this that require the complete package of driver ability, strong engines, and flawless pit stops. But while they have difficulty finding Victory Lane, there have been more than a half-dozen drivers who earned top-10s on the 1.5-milers. None of them have scored two.
At Homestead, Tyler Reddick (+5000 for the outright win) finished second, Michael McDowell (+25000) was sixth and Ryan Newman (+20000) was seventh. At Vegas, Christopher Bell (+2800) finished seventh with Erik Jones (+15000) 10th. At Atlanta, Austin Dillon (+6600) finished sixth with Chris Buescher (+20000) in seventh.
Nearly all of those drivers have plus odds to finish in the top 10 this week. Reddick and Dillon are currently listed at +200 to score a top-10. Jones at +300, Newman at +350, Buescher at +425, and McDowell at +550 have longer odds and are capable of supplementing your bets.
In particular, McDowell is an interesting pick because after winning the Daytona 500, he carried that momentum to Homestead.
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Bell is listed at a -118 for a top-10 finish, but if you have a good feeling about him, he can be secured at +235 for a top-five.
In the weekly video chat with NBC analyst Steve Letarte, we featured a group matchup among Chevrolet drivers. Letarte’s pick to wear the bowtie best was William Byron (+1800 for the outright win) at +550. Our pick was Alex Bowman (+2000) at +650. If you have a strong feeling about either of those drivers, both are listed in another four-driver lineup. If Byron or Bowman can beat the other driver plus Logano and Bell, that is worth +275 and +285 respectively.
Another interesting group of four includes Kurt Busch (+4000) at +190, Matt DiBenedetto (+6000) at +245, Reddick at +285 and Aric Almirola (+8000) at +315. Letarte liked Busch best because the wily veteran is good on slick tracks. We prefer DiBenedetto because of the momentum that back-to-back top-10s gives the No. 21 team.
Keselowski (+850) at +285 is favored as the top Ford driver ahead of Kevin Harvick (+1000) at +300 and teammates Blaney and Logano, both at +350.
The favorite to win the race, Denny Hamlin (+575) is also the favored Toyota driver at +150. He narrowly edges Martin Truex Jr. (+650) at +165. Ky Busch has enough ROI at +375 to trigger some action.
If you think Ford will be superior to Toyota, there is a little value in wagering that Blaney at +105 will finish ahead of Truex at -141 in a head-to-head matchup.
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