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Ducey’s NBA Best Bets for Dec. 20

LaMelo Ball

LaMelo Ball

Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

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Monday’s NBA card is short and rather interesting, with injuries and various absences creating a ton of uncertainty. I’ve picked out a couple of bets I’m really into and will relay them to you now.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics (-3) Total: 213.5

I like to think of myself as an expert on the Philadelphia 76ers. I’ve followed and bet this team through the entire Joel Embiid injury and I actually took the train down to Philly to see this team nearly beat my New York Knicks with half of the roster out due to COVID-19. I even wrote that I thought Philadelphia would defeat an eight-man Nets team and regain some form, only to be disappointed.

There is plenty to like about this team. Tyrese Maxey has emerged as one of the best young talents in the East, Seth Curry continues to get better and better and Joel Embiid has been dominant. With that said, it does not appear the sum of its parts amounts to anything more than an average team which will grab one of the final playoff spots.

Even though Philly is healthier than Boston entering Monday, it is still shooting dreadfully. In the 11 games since Embiid returned, it is shooting 31.5% from three and taking the third-most mid-range jumpers in the NBA. This isn’t really a recipe for success, and I find it hard to believe the Sixers will exploit a weak Celtics frontcourt given the fact that they obviously just want to settle for jumpers.

The Sixers are 1-5 against the spread in their last six and not only lost to that eight-man Nets team but then got run over by the Heat in a game which Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro all sat. Boston’s got Brown back and this team looks dangerous again.

Edge: Celtics -3

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Charlotte Hornets vs. Utah Jazz (-11.5) Total: 236.5

It actually seems like insane behavior to be taking the over on a point total this high in 2021, but I really think it will hit.

The over has gone 10-1-1 in the Hornets’ last 12 games and 5-1 when they’re playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Charlotte is dead last in defensive efficiency this year and fourth in pace, but with LaMelo Ball on the floor that pace grows from 100.15 to 103.05 — which would be the highest number in the NBA running away. Ball is now back, and the team is flying up and down the floor.

Utah is the top offense in basketball by points scored per 100 possessions going against the least-efficient defense. To spice things up even further, the Jazz rank sixth in pace for the month of December. This is unprecedented given how slowly they have played for years, and the fact that they rank 19th for the season. That little extra injection of pace could help this game soar well over 236 points.

Edge: Over 236.5

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