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Night two of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs is upon us, with the remaining four first round series getting set to kickoff.
Below you will find overlays from two of tonight’s games that are available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS at NEW YORK RANGERS
Even if teams are of similar ability and overall talent level, there are the times when a matchup for one team against another is simply a bad one.
For example, last night’s game between the Carolina Hurricanes and Boston Bruins played out in the exact same fashion that their three regular season games played out – Carolina dominated Boston en route to a 5-1 victory.
This is not to say necessarily that Carolina is clearly superior to Boston in terms of talent, but perhaps it is just a bad matchup for the Bruins, and they will be swimming upstream for the duration of their series.
This could very well be the case for the Pittsburgh Penguins against the New York Rangers, as the Rangers controlled much of the teams’ regular season series, thanks to one man.
Igor Shesterkin put together one of the better goaltending seasons we have seen in quite some time, but he took his game to another level when taking on the Pens.
Shesterkin stopped 97 of 101 shots faced in four games against Pittsburgh this year, illustrating his dominance.
Regardless of what the rest of your team looks like, if your goaltender stops more than 96% of the shots he faces, you are probably going to win more often than you lose.
Shesterkin’s confidence against Pittsburgh is nearing an irrational level, but truth be told – is it irrational if the numbers suggest otherwise?
Until Sidney Crosby and company solve the puzzle that is Igor, I will side with the Rangers.
New York’s moneyline price of -136 (implied probability of 57.6%) does nothing for me, but I am willing to take a shot on a far less likely outcome given the price available.
The Rangers’ puck line price of +195 (implied probability of 33.9%) is a price worth gambling on.
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NASHVILLE PREDATORS at COLORADO AVALANCHE
Although neither of these two teams enter the Stanley Cup Playoffs in great form (Nashville lost four of their last five; Colorado lost six of their last seven), you will be hard-pressed to find anyone that does not still believe the Colorado Avalanche are the team to beat in the NHL’s Western Conference.
That may be the case, but it does not mean they will have an easy path to the Stanley Cup Final – especially against a Predators team that gave them fits in the regular season.
Nashville won three of their four games against the Avs this season, and although they will be without Juuse Saros to begin, the notion that their +1.5-puck line odds sit in the plus-money category is astounding.
My numbers suggest Nashville either beats Colorado (again) or loses by a single goal 63.1% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -171.
This would indicate an enormous overlay, as the Predators’ +1.5-puck line price currently sits at +105 (implied probability of 48.8%).
Even if this wager does not come through, these are the types of bets that one cannot afford to let pass by, as they are the kind that will lead to long-term success.
THE PLAYS
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers – Rangers -1.5 (+195)
Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche – Predators +1.5 (+105)
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