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Postseason Records to Date:
Record: 16-13
Units +2.26
Bowen Byram, Colorado Avalanche Player Prop, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN (Game 1)
Sometimes there isn’t a side or a total you fancy in the world of sports betting and considering there’s only one game in town from now until the NHL season ends, finding bets you love will be difficult. Luckily, the player props market has grown exponentially over the past couple of years and now there are more ways than ever to wager on the big games. We arrive at a young budding star blueliner and no, I’m not talking about Cale Makar. Instead, I am throwing money down on the other Colorado kid: Bowen Byram.
Byram was the fourth overall pick in 2019 and while he is supremely talented, injuries have derailed the early portion of his career. Now that he’s healthy, he is making a large difference on the ice. He hasn’t been out there for more than 20 mins per game like some of the top-tier defensemen, but he’s made the most of his opportunities on the third pairing with Erik Johnson. Byram is also on the second powerplay unit, running point for Colorado’s special teams. I like Byram to go Over his prop of 1.5 shots on goal tonight for the reasons stated above. The Avs need him and he’s far enough down the depth chart that he won’t face the heavyweights of Tampa Bay all that often. The Colorado blue liner has gone Over his prop line in five of seven home games these playoffs, which gives him a hit rate of 71%. Overall, he has topped the prop in nine of 14 games for a hit rate of 64%. The implied odds for this wager are -180 at the lowest and at home, it should be more around -200. Like the books have been doing all postseason long, there’s tremendous value in the actual odds of -135!
The Lightning don’t allow a ton of shots -- just 30.1 per game during the regular season -- but they have been known to struggle defensively early in postseason series. Colorado has also averaged the most shots on goal as a team these playoffs, with 40.7 rubbers on the twine per game. Assuming the two averages meet in the middle, I am confident that Byram chips in his two shots and we all go home with a winner tonight. Good luck!
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The Pick
Bowen Byram, Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-135 on DraftKings)
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