England’s top clubs battled in midweek FA Cup fixtures with hopes to add more silverware to their trophy cases. Of those that hit the pitch, Burnley were the only Premier League club to fall to a second-tier Championship division club.
Each week I’ll break down the Premier League action from a betting perspective, digging through information pertinent to bettors and offering my take on particular matchups. This week Manchester City look to continue their dominance while Liverpool must fight off an improved Leicester City if they wish to get back to their winning ways (all odds via PointsBet Sportsbook):
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Manchester City vs. Tottenham Hotspur (12:30 p.m. ET Saturday)
Line: Manchester City -1.5 (-105), Tottenham Hotspur +1.5 (-120)
Tottenham and Everton’s midweek match featured a lot of goals and little defense. Since José Mourinho has been at the helm shootouts have seldom happened, but it was Tottenham who scored four goals and conceded five, losing in extra time. They must look to bounce back quickly and focus on Saturday’s fixture with Manchester City.
Early in the season, the consensus thought was that Tottenham were all but guaranteed for a Champions League berth. But Mourinho’s “park the bus” style of soccer has caught up with him, and now Tottenham are on the outside looking in.
In Tottenham’s last four Premier League fixtures, they have only found the back of the net four times. Had it not been for an easy home contest against West Brom, they would be heading into this weekend on a multi-game losing streak.
The loss of Harry Kane has been detrimental to the club’s offensive ability. But Tottenham should not use Kane’s injury as an excuse for poor play. Although they have conceded only 22 goals this season, they are in the bottom half for expected goals against. In the last two and a half months, they are seventh-worst for expected goals against.
Manchester City’s historic run continues, winning 12 of their last 14. Their match against Liverpool truly cemented the idea that they are downright unbeatable. Manchester City tops the table in just about every statistical category, but their greatest attribute is their phenomenal defense. With 13 clean sheets, they have the confidence to dominate in possession and wait for optimal opportunities to score.
In the absence of De Bruyne and Aguero, Ilkay Gundogan has stepped up and provided the offensive spark for Manchester City. In City’s last five fixtures, Gundogan has contributed at least one assist or goal in four of them. Look for him to continue his dominance against Tottenham.
Even if Harry Kane can go for Tottenham, it’s hard for me to see this being a competitive match. I will be backing Manchester City -1.5 (-105) and expect them to win by at least two goals.
Leicester City vs. Liverpool (7:30 a.m. ET Saturday)
Line: Liverpool (+110), Leicester City (+245), Draw (+250)
Liverpool come into this weekend’s fixture in a must-win situation. Given their recent league dominance, the prospect of losing three consecutive matches is unheard of. But with a tough road contest against Leicester City, three straight losses are a distinct possibility and would be Liverpool’s first such streak under Jurgen Klopp.
Their most recent loss to Manchester City was tough to watch for any Liverpool fan. This was Liverpool’s opportunity to steal three points and edge closer to the top spot. Instead they squandered that opportunity with poor defensive plays and many costly errors.
It’s uncommon to see a player of Alisson Becker’s quality make such simple mistakes. Great players generally bounce back strong from a bad performance, and he has an opportunity to do just that on Saturday.
Sadio Mané will be back for his second game since he was briefly sidelined due to injury. Having him available is a major boost to the offensive production. While the team will still be without Diogo Jota, Liverpool’s forwards should still give Leicester City’s defense fits.
Leicester City come into this weekend’s fixture with somewhat tired legs following a Wednesday FA Cup match against Brighton. Jamie Vardy had his first start since his hernia surgery but was unable to find the net. It’s unknown if Brendan Rodgers will give Vardy the start on such a quick turnaround, but we should expect to see him featured at some point during the match.
Leicester have not fared well against Liverpool, losing six of the last seven, and the last two matches have not been close. Liverpool outscored Leicester 7-0, dominating possession and out-shooting Leicester by a 37-14 margin. There is no doubt that this weekend’s match will be much closer, but the edge still lies with Liverpool.
I see some value and will be backing Liverpool (+110) to win.
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