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The Premier League resumes this week for Matchday 12 after taking a week off for the final international break until March.
As much as we do not like to admit it, luck exists in sports. A way to examine if a team is having good or bad luck in the EPL is to analyze the difference between their ‘goals for’ and expected goals (xG) as well as their ‘goals against’ and ‘expected goals against (xGA)’ difference. For instance, Chelsea has only given up four goals all season, but they have an xGA of 11.4. This indicates that Chelsea has had a bit of luck on their side to start the season. Meanwhile, Southampton has just 10 ‘goals for,’ but 15.6 xG’s showing they have been unlucky in front of goal this season.
With that said, let’s jump into my favorite Premier League prop bets of the weekend. All odds are from PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at the time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Adam Armstrong Anytime Goalscorer (+190)
It was mentioned in the introduction that Southampton has been unlucky to start the season. However, there is no better team to play when trying to turn your scoring luck around than Norwich City. The Canaries have conceded 26 goals this season (worst in the EPL) and are averaging a ‘goal against’ every 36 minutes. Even though Norwich will be under their new manager Dean Smith and could benefit from the “new manager effect,” their roster is still the same, so expect them to give up goals similarly to how they have done every weekend to this point.
The player most likely to score a goal against Norwich for Southampton is Adam Armstrong. The 24-year-old striker has just two goals on the year but is leading Southampton in shots with 29, with eight of them being on target. Moreover, Armstrong scored in Southampton’s last outing, which happened to be against Dean Smith in his final match with Aston Villa.
30 - Since the start of last season, Adam Armstrong is one of only two English players to score 30+ league goals in England's top two divisions (excluding play-offs), along with Ivan Toney (33). Finisher. #SOUAVL pic.twitter.com/x14xY1tpiD
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 5, 2021
Armstrong’s confidence is high coming back from the international break. He no longer has outside distractions and can focus solely on scoring goals. “My family is all settled now, and I just take every day as it comes,” Armstrong said to hampshirelive.news before the international break.
Look for Armstrong to put another one in the back of the net this weekend and play with similar confidence we saw from him when he was with Blackburn in the lower division, where he scored 28 goals in 40 matches. Plus, if we are being honest, Norwich is a team that will most likely be playing in the EFL Championship next year anyway.
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Best Bet #2 - Everton Over 2.5 Corners
Everton will be up against Manchester City this weekend, who allow only 2.8 corners per game, but this prop value is too low given Everton’s play style. The Toffees are playing much faster this season under Rafa Benitez than they did under Carlo Ancelotti and are averaging 4.4 corners per game to show it.
Benitez’s preferred playstyle this season has been to play direct and get the ball forward quickly. They have the sixth-highest xG in the league at 16, indicating that they are getting shots off and constantly attacking from within the opposing team’s 18-yard box.
Moreover, Everton played a 4-4-1-1 formation last weekend when facing Tottenham and will likely look similar against Manchester City. If that is the case, there will be pockets of space for the Toffees to attack behind City’s outside backs, as Pep Guardiola encourages his defenders to attack up the sideline. This will lead to Everton players near the byline, resulting in opportunities for corners.
Everton has reached this prop value in 10-of-11 Premier League games this season and has reached it in four of their last five games against Manchester City.
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