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Now, the French Open gets fun. We’ve got two amazing semifinals to run through on the women’s side on Thursday, beginning with the unstoppable Iga Swiatek and ending with exciting young American Coco Gauff. I’ve got two ways to play those matches, and I’ll get to them now.
Iga Swiatek (-1000) vs. Daria Kasatkina (+575)
With all due respect to Kasatkina, she is no match for Swiatek — the World No. 1 who comes in a 33-match winning streak. You can look no further than the Russian’s latest match, when she struggled mightily to serve out the match against Veronika Kudermetova on Wednesday.
Swiatek should run through Kudermetova after defeating one of the toughest outs in the world right now in Jessica Pegula. The young American would grab an early break before she was essentially never heard from again in that match. The Pole simply does not make mistakes, and more error-prone in the third set Kasatkina could not have been.
I will pass on the game spread here and take the under on 18.5 games, which will give you the added security of a 6-3, 6-3 match cashing, The spread won’t allow for that. The chances Kasatkina wins a set are highly unlikely, so the total is definitely the move.
Edge: Under 18.5
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Martina Trevisan (+230) vs. Coco Gauff (-304)
Perhaps the old Coco Gauff would start slowly or lose her focus in the middle of a big match like this, but not the matured Coco Gauff. The American, once known for her insane ability to cash overs with long matches, has not dropped a set here in Paris and should go on to the final in the same manner.
It’s true that Trevisan defeated Gauff in three sets last year at this very tournament, but the circumstances were very different. Gauff is a better player now, and her backhand has made great strides since then. The left-handed Trevisan feasted on backhand errors from Gauff then and shouldn’t be able to do that now. Instead, expect the American to overpower her opponent here.
I’ll gladly back Gauff to win in straight sets yet again at this excellent price. If she could handle the weapons of Sloane Stephens, she can handle this test.
Edge: Gauff 2-0 (-125)
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