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After a blowout Game 3 win, the Phoenix Mercury are just one win away from the franchise’s first WNBA Finals appearance since 2014. The Mercury beat the Las Vegas Aces by at least 26 points in each of the last two games following a six-point loss to open the series.
Phoenix looked like the far more physical team throughout this series, a surprising fall for the Aces after they led the league in scoring, field goal percentage, rebounding and points in the paint during the regular season. Brittney Griner dominated in Game 3 with 18 points and 11 boards, as the Mercury frontcourt led Phoenix to a playoff-record 58 rebounds on Sunday. Las Vegas led the league in defensive rebounding this season but let up 13 offensive boards, as the Aces were outscored 20-2 on second-chance points and 42-24 in the paint on Sunday.
The Las Vegas defense finally adjusted to Griner’s post dominance in Game 3 by committing or bringing double-teams on over 50% of her post-up possessions, but Griner countered by showing off the improvements she made to her mid-range game. She made three of her four catch-and-shoot attempts after shooting just 43.9% on catch-and-shoot jumpers during the regular season. Even more troubling for the Aces, Griner made each of her two catch-and-shoot attempts while guarded in Game 3. Griner shot only 38.5% on contested catch-and-shoot attempts this season and ranked in the 38th percentile for PPP from those shots, so she continues to add new layers to her game throughout this postseason run. Griner led the WNBA in average points in the paint this season and made a career-high 75.7% of her shots around the rim, according to Pivot Analysis.
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Mercury forward Brianna Turner put up a career game on Sunday with 23 points and 17 rebounds, including seven offensive boards. She also showed the defensive ability that earned her a selection to the WNBA All-Defensive First Team by limiting 2020 MVP A’ja Wilson to eight points on 2-14 shooting from the field in Game 3. Wilson only averaged 11.7 points in the first three games of the series.
Another encouraging sign for the Mercury is that the team has the Aces on the brink of elimination without the usual excellence of star point guard Skylar Diggins-Smith. Diggins-Smith scored five points and shot only 2-12 from the field and 0-5 from deep in Game 3. Throughout the playoffs, her scoring and efficiency are both down from her regular season numbers. While Phoenix will need Diggins-Smith at her best to have a shot in the finals, the team around the All-WNBA First Team guard is capable of closing out this series while she gets back in rhythm.
Las Vegas shot only 14.3% from beyond the arc with two made three-pointers in Game 3. This follows a troubling trend for head coach Bill Laimbeer’s teams, as the Aces finished dead last in average three-point attempts during each of Laimbeer’s four seasons as head coach, spanning every season since the team relocated from San Antonio in 2017. The team’s best three-point shooter, Riquna Williams, made only two of her last nine three-pointers after her hot shooting in Game 1.
Aces PG Chelsea Gray also struggled in this series, with a season-low one assist in Game 3 and only 11 PPG on 20% shooting from deep against Phoenix. Gray, who was a first-time Olympian this season, put up 17 points and 12 assists in Game 1 but hasn’t been able to reach that level of play since.
Bettors have an intriguing scalp opportunity with the series line, with the prices varying across different sportsbooks, as noted by Calvin Wetzel of HerHoopStats. FanDuel lists the Aces at +176 to win the series, while Bet 365 and Caesars offer -160 on the Mercury. A $100 bet on +176 and a $160 bet on -160 would yield a risk-free chance at +$16 net profit if the Aces come back to win.
Despite the potential for free profit, I’m not confident that Laimbeer will make the necessary adjustments to win the series. I think the Aces have a chance to win Game 4 but I’m still confident in the Mercury making it to the finals. If you tailed my futures picks from September 1, you’re holding onto a Mercury title odds ticket at a price between +2000 and +2600, so I’m sticking with my Mercury pick and avoiding the current series price for this matchup.
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