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Fifty-eight players joined the NBA Thursday night, with Duke’s Paolo Banchero being the first player selected and French guard Hugo Besson being the last. While there’s the immediate desire to grade teams on the work done, there’s also a desire to know which first-year players can have an impact as rookies...and which ones may have a tougher time doing so. With that in mind, Zak Hanshew and Raphielle Johnson have answered a few questions about this rookie class, while also offering up extremely early Rookie of the Year and All-Rookie Team picks.
1. Which player’s skill set will translate best in the NBA for fantasy basketball?
Zak Hanshew: In typical Kings fashion, the team mucked things up and selected Keegan Murray over Jaden Ivey at No. 4 in the draft. From a fantasy perspective, it’s an excellent development, as Murray should feast at PF right away. As a sophomore at Iowa, he averaged 23.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.9 blocks while shooting lights out with 55/40/75 splits. His combination of size, scoring, defense and efficient shooting make him a high-impact player for the Kings and a guy who should push for top-75 fantasy production in his inaugural campaign. Murray is my immediate pick, but if Chet Holmgren can stick in the NBA, his skill set is one that fantasy managers dream of in three-point shooting, blocks, rebounds, points and percentages.
Raphielle Johnson: While I’m not particularly wild about the status of the frontcourt rotation that he’s joining, I love the fantasy potential of Paolo Banchero at the NBA level. While he may not have the ball in his hands as much as a playmaker due to Orlando having Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, and Markelle Fultz, the former Duke standout’s ability to serve as a facilitator cannot be overlooked. He averaged nearly eight rebounds and two “stocks” per game during his lone college season while also shooting nearly 48% from the field and 72.9% from the foul line. Banchero still has some work to do with regard to the consistency of his perimeter shot, but he’s good enough to offer at least one 3-pointer per game as a rookie.
2. Is there a player selected in the second round who could have fantasy value this season?
ZH: Watch out, Toronto, Christian Koloko is here to make a splash in Year 1! Arizona’s seven-footer averaged 12.6 points, 7.3 boards and 2.8 swats per game last season, operating as an elite rim protector. He’s a prototypical big man who will provide excellent FG%, rebounds and defensive stats to fantasy managers. Toronto’s frontcourt is full of fragile or undersized bigs with range, so the selection of a traditional center who thrives in the paint feels like an endorsement from Raptors’ brass. I love the fit, and I love the skillset for fantasy hoops.
RJ: I’ll take E.J. Liddell, an “undersized” power forward who many expected to be a first-round pick. Instead, he’s selected at 41st overall by the Pelicans, who could have one of the steals of this draft on their hands. Liddell’s defensive ability is what I like here, as he was able to play both the four and the five while at Ohio State. He’ll need to do more on the perimeter in the NBA due to his lack of height, but the ability to block shots and impact passing lanes could open the door to early rotation minutes as a reserve. Also worth noting are the medical histories of Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, two talented cornerstones who have missed extended periods of time due to injury during their time in New Orleans.
3. Which player taken outside the lottery has the best chance to start right away?
ZH: It’s an easy call for Mark Williams here. One of the best big men in the Draft, Williams fell just outside the lottery to No. 15 and joins a team that desperately needs his services. The returns from Mason Plumlee and Montrezl Harrell have been subpar at best, and as long as Williams can get the nod at center over 2021 rookie Kai Jones, he’ll be a tremendous lob threat for LaMelo Ball. Expect strong FG%, rebounds, blocks and even a bit of scoring. Charlotte’s frontcourt has been so dreadful over the last two seasons, that it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him in the starting lineup on opening night.
RJ: Have to agree with Zak, since Cleveland (Ochai Agbaji) was a lottery team. The production that Charlotte has received from the center position in recent seasons has left a lot to be desired, which opens the door for Williams to make a run at the starting job immediately. He’s a high-level rim protector, and offensively Williams displayed good instincts as a rim-runner and roll man in ball-screen situations. Given how much Ball and Terry Rozier stand to have the ball in their hands, Williams is in a good spot as a rookie.
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4. Which landing spots are the best/worst for incoming rookies?
ZH: The easy list for worst fantasy fits are the Spurs, Knicks, Grizzlies and Pelicans. San Antonio has a long history of developing its rookies slowly. New York’s Tom Thibodeau has never been known as a developmental coach, and there’s no way he’ll give rookies any meaningful playing time. The Grizzlies and Pelicans are far too deep to be fantasy friendly for rookies.
The best landing spots are on teams like the Thunder that lack a lot of talent, but Oklahoma City is more of a double-edged sword, as the lack of talent presents plenty of opportunity pre-tank. Teams like Houston, Detroit and Sacramento are all excellent rookie landing spots, which bodes well for Jabari Smith, Jaden Ivey and Keegan Murray respectively.
RJ: From a fantasy standpoint, New York is a pretty rough spot for a rookie to land. We’ve seen the proverbial “training wheels” applied to young talents such as Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin in the past, and Thibs wasn’t quick to go to the young guys once the Knicks were no longer in contention for a play-in tournament spot. Memphis is another tough spot due to how loaded that rotation is, but I’d keep an eye on Kennedy Chandler if the Grizzlies lose backup point guard Tyus Jones in free agency.
Oklahoma City, Detroit, and Houston are all intriguing places for a rookie to land due to the fact that all three are in the early stages of a rebuild. However, in the case of OKC, it doesn’t take much for that front office to shut down a banged-up rookie late in the season. And in the case of someone like a Chet Holmgren, that could very well cost some fantasy managers a league championship.
5. Which player in this draft class is the biggest risk to bust?
ZH: I’ve got a 1a and 1b for this one. First up is Chet Holmgren. Obviously, his ceiling is ridiculous if he can bulk up on his slight frame. The appeal of a shot-blocking, three-point shooting big is huge for fantasy, but if he can’t hang with the big boys in the paint, and he’s not athletic enough to switch onto smaller or quicker defenders while playing forward, his tenure in the NBA could be short and unremarkable. Next, we come to Shaedon Sharpe. He’s dripping with raw athleticism and the potential to develop into a legitimate three-level scorer, but he was drafted in the top-10 mostly on his high school tape and Pro Day performance after not playing a minute for Kentucky last season. ESPN affectionately referred to him as the “Mystery Man” of the Draft, but all of the unknowns make this guy an obvious bust risk.
RJ: I think it’s Sharpe. While there were some who gave him positive reviews due to his play in pre-draft workouts, there were others who did not come away all that impressed. Add in the fact that it will have been more than a calendar year since he’s played in a competitive game once the 2022-23 season begins, and that is very concerning. Joining a franchise that’s led by Damian Lillard should benefit Sharpe with regard to his long-term development, but Portland is looking to “fast track” this rebuild, so there may not be much patience when it comes to the rookie’s opportunities. And that doesn’t even touch on the possibility of Anfernee Simons being re-signed this summer.
6. Who are your early Rookie of the Year and All-Rookie Team selections?
ZH: My pick for Rookie of the Year is Paolo Banchero, a guy with the most polished offense in this Draft class who should be a high-minutes guy from Day 1. Orlando has a lot of quality pieces, but the team is still lacking a guy who they can give the ball to and say, “Go get a bucket.” Banchero can be that guy, and a surefire way to win ROY is to score the most points per game.
My All-Rookie picks:
- Paolo Banchero
- Keegan Murray - Quality scorer who can get it done on both ends of the court and fits in well with Sacramento.
- Johnny Davis - Walking bucket who can inject points and excitement into Washington’s blander-than-bland offense and potentially build a bridge for the post-Bradley-Beal era.
- Jabari Smith - Tremendous three-point shooter on a team full of opportunity.
- Jaden Ivey - The most explosive and thrilling player in this Draft class, and the player who has the ceiling to be a generational talent. Detroit needs talent, and boy can he supply that!
RJ: I’ll take Jaden Ivey. I really like the fit alongside Cade Cunningham due to the Purdue guard’s explosive athleticism, and his ability to score on all three levels doesn’t hurt, either. Last season the Pistons were willing to play Cunningham and Killian Hayes in the same starting backcourt, but that plan was eventually scrapped due to the latter’s inability to hit perimeter shots on a consistent basis. That shouldn’t be an issue for Ivey, as he shot nearly 36% from three and 74.4% from the foul line as a sophomore.
My All-Rookie picks:
- Jaden Ivey
- Johnny Davis: We’ll see what happens with Bradley Beal in free agency, but Davis in the nation’s capital feels like a great fit for him.
- Jabari Smith: Joining a Rockets franchise that traded its most productive frontcourt option will be huge for Smith, who should start for this rebuilding franchise from Day 1. He’ll need to improve the mid-range game, but Smith’s ability as a perimeter shooter and shot-blocker will make him one of the most productive rookies in this class.
- Paolo Banchero: Banchero has all the tools needed to be an impact player in the NBA for years to come. The state of Orlando’s frontcourt is a slight concern, especially if Jonathan Isaac can return and make good on the potential that so many believe that he possesses. But there will still be enough playing time available to Banchero to make an immediate -- and lasting -- impact for the Magic.
- Chet Holmgren: I noted my concern regarding the Thunder above, but Holmgren should get the playing time needed to be a first-team All-Rookie performer.
