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I know I’ve said in the past that Challenges aren’t worth it from a financial perspective, and that fact remains true, but if there were a Challenge out there that maybe… kinda… sorta.. could be worth completing, it might be the Hustle & Show Challenge 2. You won’t make a profit, and you’re not even guaranteed to break even – as all the Moments involved in the Challenge will immediately tank once the Challenge is complete – but it might be good to have at least one Challenge completion on your NBA Top Shot resume.
Top Shot recently rewarded individuals who had completed at least one Challenge with a Stephen Curry Cool Cats Moment that some folks were able to unload for $100, although as I write this column the lowest ask has dropped to $49. Still, that’s a nice little come up, and completing a Challenge will also help your collector score, which could help you gain access to future exclusive packs.
Again, I’d almost expect to lose money completing this Challenge, but it’s relatively cheap to complete at around $170 currently, and perhaps you’ll be able to make most of that back if you unload everything as soon as the Challenge ends and the Reward Moment comes into your possession. The Reward Moment is going to be a Ja Morant dunk, and if you get lucky on his serial number, you will have a decent shot of making your money back; if not turning a small profit.
First, let’s look at how the Moments performed during the first Hustle & Show Challenge for a frame of reference. The numbers in parenthesis represent the serial number of the Moment that was sold.
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Hustle & Show Challenge 1
May 3 – May 10
Reward Moment: Giannis Antetokounmpo
7,106 completions – current lowest ask: $75
Total cost of Challenge: ~$245
First Sale: $35 (#14917)
Dip: $10 (#12425) – hour after hitting market
Day 1 High: $40 (#1451) - $200 (#34)
Morning after drop: $30
Consistently was at $30 throughout Challenge
Current Lowest Ask: $9
First Sale: $35 (#8550)
Dip: $15 (#15027) – hour after hitting market
Day 1 High: $42 (#1102) - $230 (#23)
Morning after drop: $30
Consistently sold in the $30-range throughout Challenge
Current Lowest Ask: $10
First Sale: $38 (#2101)
Dip: $13 (#16808) – hour after hitting market
Day 1 High: $44 (#1459) - $200 (#66)
Morning after drop: $32
Consistently sold in the $30-range throughout the Challenge
Current Lowest Ask: $10
First Sale: $35 (#7393)
Dip: $17 (#490) – hour after hitting market
Day 1 High: $45 (#1392) – $199 (#65)
Morning after drop: $35
Consistently sold in the $35-range throughout the Challenge
Current Lowest Ask: $14
First Sale: $30 (#6572)
Dip: $10 (#15284) – hour-half after hitting the market
Day 1 High: $37 (#1704) – $151 (#51)
Morning after drop: $29
Consistently sold in the $28-range throughout the Challenge
Current Lowest Ask: $9
First Sale: $35 (#9139)
Dip: $14 (#121010) – hour after hitting the market
Day 1 High: $40 (#1022) – $210 (#21)
Morning after drop: $32
Consistently sold in the $30-range throughout the Challenge
Current Lowest Ask: $12
First Sale: $40 (#7639)
Dip: $15 (#15048) – 40 minutes after hitting the market
Day 1 High: $44 (#1589) – $205 (#46)
Morning after drop: $32
Consistently sold in the $33-range throughout the Challenge
Current Lowest Ask: $12
First Sale: $40 (#6556)
Dip: $14 (#10187) – hour after hitting the market
Day 1 High: $45 (#1532) – $205 (#39)
Morning after drop: $33
Consistently sold in the $35-range throughout the Challenge
Current Lowest Ask: $11
As you can see, the Moments involved in this Challenge held steady after their Day 1 peek, and like all Challenges, they tanked immediately upon the Challenge’s completion. Let’s say in a best-case scenario you were able to buy both Rudy Gobert ($14) and Saddiq Bey ($17) on the dip, and you got everyone else at their average price, that would put the Challenge cost at around $212. If you were to unload everything once the Challenge was complete, including an early sale of Giannis in the $100-range, you would make back roughly $187; so even in a best-case scenario with this Challenge, you would still lose $25 unless you got lucky on the serial for the Reward Moment. That’s not terrible, though. It’s far less disastrous than I’ve seen with previous Challenges.
Hustle & Show Challenge 2
Current cost of completing Challenge: ~$170
First Sale: $40 (#722)
Dip: $7 (#5521) – three hours after hitting market
Day 1 High: $32 (#1387) – $105 (#111)
Morning after drop: $20
Current Lowest Ask: $25
First Sale: $25 (#12636)
Dip: $6 (#6142) – three hours after hitting market
Day 1 High: $25 (#1261) – $89 (#58)
Morning after drop: $15
Current Lowest Ask: $18
First Sale: $24 (#4920)
Dip: $6 (#17451) – three hours after hitting market
Day 1 High: $25 (#1012) – $115 (#27)
Morning after drop: $18
Current Lowest Ask: $19
First Sale: $25 (#13376)
Dip: $6 (#11382) – three hours after hitting market
Day 1 High: $29 (#1238)
Morning after drop: $21
Current Lowest Ask: $24
First Sale: $23 (#10622)
Dip: $4 (#10117) – three hours after hitting market
Day 1 High: $26 (#1509) – $145 (#42)
Morning after drop: $17-range
Current Lowest Ask: $19
First Sale: $34 (#778)
Dip: $7 (#6505) – two hours after hitting market
Day 1 High: $33 (#1302) – $120 (#116)
Morning after drop: $23
Current Lowest Ask: $27
First Sale: $21 (#3213)
Dip: $4 (#16852) – three hours after hitting market
Day 1 High: $25 (#1446) – $99 (#73)
Morning after drop: $16
Current Lowest Ask: $18
First Sale: $21 (#8077)
Dip: $4 (#10779) – three hours after hitting market
Day 1 High: $25 (#1104)
Morning after drop: $17
Current Lowest Ask: $20
The reason why there’s a chunk of time in these graphs where no sales were occurring is because Top Shot had to pause their market for a while after the pack drop to sort out some issues. The Moments were tanking before the market shut down, but once things opened back up, they all started climbing back into the $20-range. Top Shot typically puts a cooldown timer on purchases right after a pack drop, and for this drop they had it limited to one purchase per hour. Unfortunately, they still have some kinks to work out in their system, as an unsuccessful purchase can still result in you getting locked out for an hour, and that’s what happened to me during the feeding frenzy. However, it would have been possible to get three of the eight required Challenge Moments for under $10 each before the market shut down. Overall, this is looking like a relatively inexpensive Challenge to complete, and perhaps Ja Morant – who just had an incredible performance torching the Warriors while guiding the Grizzlies back to the playoffs for the first time since 2017 – will sell a bit higher than your average Reward Moment. I think it could be possible to flip him for something in the $100-range as one of the first sales when the Moment is released, and that right there would give you half your money back.
Like I said at the beginning, I wouldn’t expect to make a profit by completing this Challenge, but I wouldn’t expect the loss to be significant either. In previous packs, Top Shot has made completing a Challenge one of several potential prerequisites to be eligible for purchasing that pack, so it’s plausible that in the future Top Shot may decide to make a pack exclusive to collectors who have completed a Challenge. They’ve already rewarded Challenge completers with a Steph Curry Moment, so it’s not outlandish to think there may be more privileges in the future. Completing a Challenge will count as 30 points towards your collector score and 20 towards your rank.
Full disclosure, I’m strongly leaning towards completing this Challenge myself. I bought KAT ($25, #5225), Trae Young ($25, #4380) and Facundo Campazzo ($25, #810) hoping I could flip them for a profit during the Day 1 high, but it looks like I may have been buying them during their highs. It’s not the worst thing as I got relatively good serials, and I do enjoy all these Moments, but apparently, I’m going to be forced to deviate from my initial plan. I also got Dejounte Murray in my pack, so I only need Juan Toscano-Anderson ($19), Matisse Thybulle ($19), OG Anunoby ($20) and Damian Lillard ($27) to complete the Challenge. I’m going to wait another few days before buying those final Moments, as I think there’s a chance they could dip a bit further once some of The Casuals start getting impatient, and I think worst-case they’ll just hold steady where they are (I’d be surprised to see a further rise based on how the last Hustle & Show Challenge went).
I’m planning on unloading all these Moments the second the Ja Morant Reward Moment comes into my possession to try and at least get close to breaking even, and maybe I’ll get lucky and be able to sell some of these Moments mid collapse. My main goal is to just get this on my Top Shot resume and lose the least amount of money possible. I do like a lot of these Moments, though, so I plan on buying a handful back about a month after the Challenge completion date. Common Moments, in general, tend to lose value over time and I don’t think these will be any different. They do have a high Edition Size (18,000), but as I said, I just enjoy a lot of these Moments.
So if you successfully bought the dip on a handful of Moments, and you haven’t yet completed a Challenge before, maybe think about doing this one for the potential future benefits. Plus, Ja Morant is hot right now, and that could influence his initial offering price.
