2022 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 21.5 (16th)
Total yards per game: 333.9 (17th)
Plays per game: 63.6 (16th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 32.5 (24th)
Dropback EPA per play: .058 (12th)
Rush attempts per game: 30 (8th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.002 (7th)
Coaching Staff
Brian Daboll enters his second year the helm after a superb first season in which he transformed the stubbornly old school Joe Judge Giants into a real-life NFL team capable of scoring points and winning games. And he did it with Judge’s players.
Daboll in the spring hired Jeff Nixon, formerly of the Dolphins, as New York’s new running backs coach. Nixon, who has coached for several teams over his 13 years in the league. Nixon served as interim offensive coordinator for the Panthers after the team fired Joe Brady in December 2021. He’ll coach a Giants backfield led by Saquon Barkley if (or when) Barkley’s contract issues are resolved.
Chris Smith is the Giants’ new offensive line coach. Smith spent six seasons at Holy Cross in a range of roles, including offensive coordinator and run game coordinator. Holy Cross in 2022 had the Patriot League’s best PFF run blocking and pass blocking grades.
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Passing Offense
QB: Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor
WR: Isaiah Hodgins, Jaylin Hyatt
WR: Parris Campbell, Sterling Shepard
WR: Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson
TE: Darren Waller, Daniel Bellinger, Lawrence Cager
Daboll and the Giants offensive coaching staff last year couldn’t coax much downfield throwing from Daniel Jones after talking up the need for more aggressive passing all offseason. The ultra-conservative Jones threw over 20 yards on just 4.6 percent of his attempts in 2022, which ranked 39th out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks. That doesn’t mean it was a bad passing season for Jones, who posted a career-high 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt and an 81.1 percent adjusted completion rate, also the highest of his NFL career. Only Kyler Murray had a higher on-target rate than Jones. Daniel D. Dimes’ dinking and dunking continued unabated though; there’s little reason to think that will change in 2023.
Though they had a meager 15 touchdown receptions in 2022, the Giants’ drop back EPA showed an offense that benefits tremendously from Jones’ mobility. Only 11 teams had a higher drop back EPA in part because Jones nearly doubled his prior career high in rush attempts with 120. Gaining six yards a clip, Jones logged nine games with at least seven rushing attempts, including a wildly valuable seven rushes inside the five yard line, trailing only Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen among QBs. Jones’ 15 rushes in the green zone (inside the 10) trailed only Barkley (24) among Giants players. Daboll seems determined to use Jones as a dual threat, as we saw with Jones’ eight rushing scores in 2022.
Jones is among the most obvious touchdown passing regression candidates headed into 2023. With a touchdown rate of 3.2 percent in 2022, Jones ranked 29th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks. His rushing combined with a little touchdown passing luck — or variance, if you will — makes Jones one of the premiere non-elite signal callers in fantasy this season. Make no mistake though: New York, after posting the league’s third lowest pass rate over expected last season, will remain a clearcut run-first offense.
New York’s pass-catching pecking order is as unclear as any in the league as we head into training camp. Darius Slayton, who re-signed with the Giants on a two-year, $12 million deal after emerging as the team’s top wideout in 2022, sees himself as New York’s top dog. Though he was fourth among Giants pass catchers with a 19 percent target per route run rate on the season, Slayton from Week 5 — when he finally got a full route share -- until the end of the season led the Giants by a long shot in targets and air yards. Slayton was 21st in receiving yardage and 16th in yards per route run over that two-month stretch. It’s reasonable to project Slayton as the Giants’ de facto WR1, if only by a bit.
Darren Waller, of course, could be the team’s most-targeted player if he returns to the check down and intermediate usage he saw during his massive 2020 season in Vegas. In his final season with the Raiders, Waller saw his average depth of target spike, making him a far more volatile fantasy option than fantasy managers had expected. Jones’ penchant for the short stuff could turn Waller into a veritable PPR cheat code in 2023. That’s if Waller, who turns 31 in September and has missed 14 games due to injury over the past two seasons, can stay upright and healthy.
Wan’Dale Robinson during his truncated rookie season continued what he had done in his final collegiate season and commanded targets in the Giants offense. Robinson, before November ACL injury, led all Giants wideouts and tight ends with a 25 percent targets per route run rate. He ran 80 percent of his pass routes from the slot. Sure, they were of the quick-hitting variety (5.5 aDOT) but he had real PPR value in 12-team formats. Robinson and Sterling Shepard, the team’s other injured slot guy, could start the season on the PUP list. That would mean both receivers would likely be available on the waiver wire well into the regular season.
Which leads us to perennial fantasy tease Parris Campbell. In March, Campbell, formerly of the Colts, inked a one-year deal with New York worth $3 million. He has since drawn consistent praise from Giants coaches. The Athletic’s Dan Duggan reported in June that Campbell — coming off a career-high 63 catches in 2022 — will be a “featured piece” of Daboll’s offense in 2023. How many targets Campbell can command while Waller and Slayton presumably function as Jones’ top two targets remains to be seen. The Giants offense would need to be more balanced in 2023 if Waller, Slayton, and Campbell were to get there for fantasy purposes.
Jaylin Hyatt, the speedster from Tennessee taken in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft, is seen as a project who will require ample development as an NFL wideout. Hyatt in mandatory minicamp mostly worked with the Giants’ third team offense. Beat writers expect Hyatt to play a limited role in the team’s passing attack to start the season. That doesn’t mean Hyatt is doomed to fantasy irrelevance, however.
Rushing Offense
RB: Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida, Gary Brightwell
OL (L-R): Andrew Thomas, Ben Bredeson, John Michael Schmitz, Jr., Mark Glowinski, Evan Neal
I’ll write this with the working assumption — a safe one, I think — that Saquon Barkley will resolve his contract issues and suit up come Week 1. Fantasy managers should monitor Barkley’s situation closely over the next month. He seems increasingly dug in on a new contract.
Barkley last season came back nicely from his 2020 knee injury, which hampered him through most of his 13 games in 2021. Fully healthy, Barkley totaled 1,650 yards as the centerpiece of an unfailingly run-first New York offense. Probably Barkley will never return to the heady days of his rookie season, but his rushing and pass catching volume was fully restored in 2022. That’s all we can ask for.
Barkley last year was fifth in rushes of more than ten yards and sixth in total rush yards over expected. Running behind a middling Giants offensive line that struggled with injuries through much of the season, Barkley continued to create yards, though not at an elite clip. He led all Giants pass catchers with a 27 percent targets per route run rate; there’s no reason to think Barkley will be game-script sensitive thanks to that pass-game involvement.
Breida once again profiles as Barkley’s direct backup headed into 2023. Last season, he gained 220 yards on 54 carries and caught 20 of his 25 targets. New York’s backfield would probably be split between Breida and Gary Brightwell if Barkley were to miss time this season. Brightwell in 2022 showed some burst in limited usage, gaining at least ten yards on six of his 31 rushes. He’ll be a name to monitor on waiver wires if Barkley struggles with injuries.
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Win Total
MGM Over/Under: 8.5
Pick: Over
With a middling strength of schedule and another offseason in the Brian Daboll offensive system, it’s difficult to envision the Giants being much worse than they were in 2022, when they were outscored by six points on the season and managed nine wins to sneak into the postseason. A healthier year for the team’s defense and offensive line should make the G-people a lock for nine or ten wins in what should be a fairly weak NFC East outside the Eagles.