Welcome to the NFL GPP Pivots article, where we’ll be looking to uncover some sneaky-good DFS plays away from the popular lifts. These recommendations are usually risk/reward commodities meant to be used in large-field tournaments. Typically, blending these low-owned hidden gems with well-aligned staples contributes to a viable GPP strategy.
Keep in mind that the following player write-ups were constructed earlier in the week, and sometimes injury situations can alter the fantasy landscape. Monitoring our NFL News & Headlines Feed up until game time will keep you in the loop while giving you the subsequent DFS consequences of each information piece.
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We will be looking at the Sunday main slate, meaning Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games are not included in the following analysis.
QUARTERBACK
Josh Allen - Buffalo (at NY Jets)
The last time we saw Josh Allen in a regular-season game, he was helping DFS enthusiasts rake in the earnings. Allen posted 224 passing yards and three touchdowns to go along with 95 rushing yards and two scores on the ground against Miami in Week 17. Fast-forward to the first week of the 2019 season, and I believe that he’ll be underrated while playing in the lowest total of the slate (40 over/under) between a pair of bad teams. As long as Allen maintains his rushing ability, he’ll be a strong fantasy asset regardless of the matchup. This draw at New York doesn’t look too shabby either, as the Jets rank below average in terms of secondary and pass rush according to Pro Football Focus player grades heading into 2019. Feel free to take a chance on Allen in large-field tournaments this weekend, especially on sites where he checks in at a substantial discount to the high-end signal callers.
Also Consider: Nick Foles (JAX), Andy Dalton (CIN)
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RUNNING BACK
Kerryon Johnson - Detroit (at Arizona)
Guys like Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, and Leonard Fournette are generating a ton of buzz in the DFS community this week. However, don’t forget about Kerryon Johnson for a similar salary, as he’ll likely carry a much lower ownership rate. I’m willing to mention Johnson in the same breath as those well-aligned backs, especially considering the matchup at hand. Detroit settles in as marginal road favorites against an Arizona team that ranked 29th in DVOA vs. the run last season. Speaking to that point, Pro Football Focus has the Cardinals ranked 30th in run defense heading into this season. In other words, Johnson could have himself a solid performance, especially if favorable game flow boosts his volume.
Justin Jackson - LA Chargers (vs. Indianapolis)
Melvin Gordon will not play this week, as the Chargers will keep perusing the trade market for their (soon to be) former starting running back. Most people are flocking to backup Austin Ekeler as a result, but I’m not convinced he’s the best option in this scenario. Justin Jackson should see a similar amount of touches, and he holds a cheaper salary (than Ekeler) on most DFS sites. In fact, if this game goes according to plan (LAC favored by 6.5), the Chargers will be in a position to run the ball while chewing clock in the second half. In that case, Jackson could be the better fantasy choice as more of a straight-line runner with Ekeler contributing as a change-of-pace back with receiving duties as well.
Also Consider: David Johnson (ARI), Mark Ingram II (BAL)
WIDE RECEIVER
Tyler Boyd - Cincinnati (at Seattle)
Boyd is an excellent tournament wide receiver. That’s my opinion, of course, and I’m willing to entertain him for cash game usage if the salary meshes favorably with the rest of my squad. Cincinnati is listed as 10 point road underdogs, which means they could turn to the air throughout the second half. Their opponent, Seattle, ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass last season, and Pro Football Focus has them ranked 31st in the secondary and 29th in pass rush according to their player grades. A.J. Green is still nursing an ankle injury, meaning Boyd should step up as the top Bengals’ target in this sneaky-good draw.
Dede Westbrook - Jacksonville (vs. Kansas City)
I’m not sure what Westbrook’s ownership rate will look like. He’s the type of player who usually slips through the cracks, but loads of preseason hype could have more people jumping on the bandwagon. Westbrook has a better quarterback throwing to him (Nick Foles), and the combination seemed to display some rapport through the preseason. The Jaguars may be forced to the air in an effort to keep up with Kansas City’s high-octane offense, pushing more volume to Westbrook as a result.
Also Consider: DJ Moore (CAR), Kenny Golladay (DET), Michael Gallup (DAL), DK Metcalf (SEA), John Brown (BUF)
TIGHT END
Austin Hooper - Atlanta (at Minnesota)
An early dive into the main slate leaves me with the impression that most DFS participants will look towards George Kittle and Hunter Henry as tight ends for cash games. There will definitely be some Travis Kelce and O.J. Howard shares mixed in there too. I’m considering Austin Hooper for a cheaper salary alongside an arguably better matchup against a Vikings’ team that ranked 30th in DVOA to opposing tight ends last season. If Xavier Rhodes holds his own while shadowing Julio Jones, the Falcons will need another pass-catcher to step up. That could be Hooper while attacking the vulnerability of this Minnesota defense.
Also Consider: Delanie Walker (TEN)
