The highs and lows of watching a new rookie class can bring a lot of fantasy football uncertainty. While it’s fun to have shiny new players to plug into lineups, their immediate usage and trends may not have fantasy managers jumping for joy just yet. Here, I aim to give you an update on how rookies are doing and their fantasy values. A monthly report will provide analysis on these, with December’s providing an update on rookies as fantasy playoffs start in many leagues. Several fantasy-relevant rookies will be impacting playoff pushes heading into the new year.
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Rookie Quarterbacks
Handy-dandy Quarterback Tracker:
| Player | Completion % | Passing Yards | Yards per Attempt | TD : INT | Rushing Yards | Total TD |
| Jayden Daniels | 69.6% | 2,819 | 7.8 | 15 : 6 | 590 | 21 |
| Bo Nix | 63.8% | 2,842 | 6.5 | 17 : 8 | 304 | 21 |
| Caleb Williams | 62.2% | 2,746 | 6.3 | 16 : 5 | 405 | 16 |
| Drake Maye | 67.2% | 1,696 | 6.6 | 11 : 8 | 345 | 12 |
Stats via Pro Football Reference
OROY Competition
Over the last month of play, the Broncos’ Bo Nix has seemingly creeped into Offensive Rookie of the Year conversations with Commanders QB Jayden Daniels. Between the quarterbacks, the Broncos offense has taken a step forward while the Commanders offense had slowed and the statistical numbers between Daniels and Nix are growing close. Nix especially has provided fantasy managers a boost, out-producing his late-round fantasy draft capital.
However, Daniels is still the better rusher, ranking behind only Lamar Jackson in quarterback rushing yards on the season. Daniels is averaging a higher yards per attempt mark and has just two games under an 80.0 passer rating this season, while Nix has six such games. He is throwing the ball downfield, and at a better rate. Though Nix has improved - averaging 272 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns over his last four games - Daniels remains the better Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate with back-to-back top-three fantasy finishes Weeks 12 and 13. Daniels ranks as a low-end QB1 this season while Nix is a fantasy QB2.
Looking Forward
The Bears’ Caleb Williams has had a strange season. He has just five interceptions on the season while setting Bears rookie records for passing yards and touchdowns. However, he has also been sacked 56 (!) times through 13 games this season with a shallow 6.3 yards per attempt. Head coach Matt Eberflus has been fired and Thomas Brown has taken over in the interim. Williams will spend these last few games essentially auditioning for his next head coach (a certain Lions offensive coordinator ?) Williams is a back-end QB2 the rest of this season with more upside for the future.
Drake Maye took over as the Patriots’ starter Week 6 and has been a serviceable fantasy QB2. Over his last four games, he has thrown for under 7.0 yards per attempt just once. The Patriots’ receiving corps and offensive line still needs revamping, but Hunter Henry has been a solid safety valve for Maye. Though he is falling out of relevance with no bye weeks left heading into the fantasy playoffs, Maye is an upside player for next season.
The Saints’ Spencer Rattler got a chance to start three games without Derek Carr, tossing a touchdown and two interceptions, all in the same game. It seems Jake Haener will start with Carr (hand) out again, and it will be some time until we see fantasy relevance from Rattler. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins’ struggles may mean the Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr. will see some run soon. He has yet to start, but he is a quarterback to keep an eye on in case Atlanta’s situation changes.
An Interesting Tidbit: All four rookie QBs that are regularly starting have over 300 rushing yards. A sign the game is continuing to move towards mobility being key for quarterbacks.
Rookie Running Backs
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The top rookie running back has been Bucky Irving. He took over the Buccaneers backfield, with three straight top-eight fantasy finishes from Weeks 10 to 13. He saw 12 targets and 50 carries in that three-game span. Irving has been more efficient than Rachaad White all season long and is now started eating into passing game usage. Fantasy managers will love his 5.4 yards per carry (second among rookies) combined with shiftiness in space and utility as a receiver for the fantasy playoffs. Unfortunately, he is hurting from back/hip injuries that he played through in Week 14, but exited the game early. If Irving is healthy, he is in the fantasy RB2 mix.
Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants
Despite the Giants’ struggles, they have produced a pair of fantasy-relevant rookies. Tyrone Tracy is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, taking Giants lead back duties from Devin Singletary. He has double-digit touches every game since Week 8, coming on to provide RB2 value late in the season. Unfortunately, positive game script will be rare for the Tommy DeVito/Drew Lock Giants. Though Tracy’s receiving prowess is formidable (college receiver, 10 targets in Week 14), the Giants’ passing offense is lacking and running backs are not consistently targeted. This caps Tracy’s ceiling, but his opportunity as a rusher has shone through. Fantasy managers can keep him in the low-end RB2 range heading into fantasy playoffs.
Handcuffs with Opportunity
Outside of Irving and Tracy, there are a few backs who have had budding opportunity. With a knee injury to Breece Hall, Jets rookie RBs Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis have seen increased opportunity. Allen was the primary backup this season, but in the last two games, Davis has scored the touchdowns. Davis has 17 touches to Allen’s 22 touches over the last pair of games, delegating Hall’s duties between the two. Though it seems like Allen has the inside path to a primary role, Davis is only slightly smaller and the Jets drafted him just a round later. Both are FLEX plays if Hall remains out.
The 49ers’ Isaac Guerendo and Chargers’ Kimani Vidal are both their teams’ RB3 recently seeing opportunity. With both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason out, Guerendo tallied 128 yards and two touchdowns in Week 14. Meanwhile, Vidal has not eaten into too much of a workload, getting 12 carries in two games. However, he remains a handcuff getting opportunity that could increase in the wake of J.K. Dobbins’ knee injury.
Handcuffs without Opportunity (Yet)
Several running backs have shown promise, but sit behind incumbent starters. The Rams’ Blake Corum is getting a drive or two per game to carry the load, seeing at least five carries in each of his last three games. If anything happens to Kyren Williams, Corum is the workhorse. In contrast, Audric Estime remains the backup in a messy Broncos backfield. Even if there is an injury ahead of him, there is no guarantee he will achieve fantasy relevance. The Cardinals’ Trey Benson and Bills’ Ray Davis both remain backups with some occasional opportunity, moreso in garbage time.
The Panthers’ Jonathon Brooks was the rookie running back we were waiting for all season…and it all came crashing down. Brooks was held out as long as possible, finally seeing the field in Week 12. Unfortunately, he re-tore his ACL and it will be longshot to see Brooks any time before 2026.
Rookie Wide Receivers
Top Producers
In this month’s tiered wide receiver breakdown, the Giants’ Malik Nabers, Jaguars’ Brian Thomas Jr., and Chargers’ Ladd McConkey have all come close together in production. All three are the top wide receivers in their respective offenses. Nabers has suffered from lack of high-value opportunity from the Giants offense, though he ranks No. 1 in target share among receivers in the NFL. Thomas is also catching passes from a back-up quarterback, but has seen 22 targets over his last two games. McConkey is getting nearly seven targets per game in a low volume passing-offense, averaging 2.55 yards per route run out of the slot. All three guys are in the WR2 range, with Nabers having the highest WR1 upside, Thomas in the middle of the WR2 range, and McConkey in the lower-end.
The bottom three in this tier have technically been fantasy disappointments. The Cardinals’ Marvin Harrison Jr. is a touchdown-dependent play. He has no games between 8.9 – 15.5 fantasy points. Harrison is a WR2 when he scores and a WR5 when he doesn’t. The Bears’ Rome Odunze is a product of his environment. He has just four double-digit fantasy scoring games, coming down with 55.5 percent of his targets. The Chiefs’ Xavier Worthy is averaging just over five targets per game, catching 56.7 percent of them. The speedster has had several “just missed” deep shots from Patrick Mahomes and didn’t see an increased role when Rashee Rice got hurt. Despite each of their struggles, Harrison, Odunze, and Worthy still carry WR4 value, with Harrison’s touchdown tendencies giving him the most upside.
Next Up
The Bills’ Keon Coleman and Panthers’ Xavier Legette are budding producers. A wrist injury stalled Coleman’s impending role increase as he had back-to-back fantasy WR2 games with seven targets each in Weeks 7-8. Despite dropping a go-ahead score in Week 14, Legette has three straight games of at least six targets and profiles as a long-term receiving option for Bryce Young. Both Coleman and Legette are WR5s heading for increased production next season.
Several receivers are off fantasy radars with no byes left heading into fantasy playoffs, but should be rostered in Dynasty leagues. The Broncos’ Devaughn Vele, Buccaneers’ Jalen McMillan, Colts’ Adonai Mitchell, and 49ers’ Ricky Pearsall are all guys headed for production next season. Unfortunately, the Patriots’ Ja’Lynn Polk has struggled and is at risk at going the Tyquan Thornton direction.
Rookie Tight Ends
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
Surviving the Raiders’ tumultuous quarterback room, Brock Bowers has the most targets among all NFL tight ends and is a top-three fantasy play at the position. In Week 14, he set a new record for receptions by a rookie tight end with reception No. 87. Rarely are non-quarterbacks candidates for Offensive Rookie of the Year, let alone a tight end, but Bowers is putting his name into the conversation. Fantasy managers are ecstatic having Bowers for the rest of the season and he is the top Dynasty tight end.
Injury-laden Potential
Once again, we are back to Bowers being the only fantasy-relevant rookie tight end. The Giants’ Theo Johnson saw four straight games of at least five targets but now hits injured reserve with a foot issue. The Panthers’ Ja’Tavion Sanders was getting some run earlier in the season, but suffered a neck injury in Week 12, missed Week 13, and has less opportunity with Adam Thielen back. These two showed the most production throughout the season behind Bowers, but are now next season’s targets.
