Is Bo Nix good?
To level even the slightest criticism of Nix is to invite a thousand Broncos fans to remind you their team won 14 games in 2025. The retort to Nix slander usually sounds something like this: Look at the scoreboard, nerd. I would like to take this opportunity to say I will never “look at the scoreboard.”
- Points per game: 23.6 (14th)
- Total yards per game: 342.6 (10th)
- Plays per game: 64.2 (5th)
- Dropbacks per game: 42.4 (5th)
- Dropback EPA per play: 0.1 (13th)
- Designed rush attempts per game: 25.4 (18th)
- Rush EPA per play: -0.07 (16th)
▶ Passing Game
QB: Bo Nix
WR: Courtland Sutton, Lil’Jordan Humphrey
WR: Jaylen Waddle, Marvin Mims
WR: Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant
TE: Evan Engram, Adam Trautman
Nix was bad in 2025. There’s no way around it. We saw a bunch of metrics-based red flags for Nix in his second season, even as the Broncos ran roughshod through the severely weakened AFC.
- That Nix had an air yards conversion rate below Cam Ward with a perfectly average air yards per attempt — meaning he wasn’t pushing it downfield at an unusual clip — is highly concerning.
- Nix’s drop back success rate was somehow below that of Justin Fields and Bryce Young. Since the start of the 2024 season, Nix ranks 31st out of 41 qualifying QBs in success rate.
- Nix’s air yards numbers were not much different from his rookie campaign. He converted 42 percent of his air yards in 2024.
From a purely fantasy perspective, Nix was OK. He averaged 0.47 fantasy points per drop back in 2025, 22nd out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks. JJ McCarthy was a little bit better (0.49 fantasy points per drop back) and Baker Mayfield (0.46) was a little bit worse.
Nix’s rushing kept him afloat as a Superflex option last season. He averaged 4.9 rushing attempts per game, down from 5.5 in 2024. Nix was highly efficient as a rusher near the end zone, turning six inside-the-10 rushing attempts into four touchdowns. However, the broken ankle he sustained in the postseason could hinder Nix as a rusher in 2026 and beyond, considering the ankle issue could be of the chronic variety (Sean Payton “joked” that if he had known about Nix’s ankle condition he might not have drafted him).
If Nix were to lose any of that rushing juice, he would hardly be viable in any fantasy format, no matter what the scoreboard says.
Courtland Sutton over the past two years, with Nix under center for Denver, has relied on a glut of targets and air yards to get by for fantasy purposes (he’s only 20 fantasy points over expectation over those two seasons). There’s also this: After dominating red zone targets in 2024, Sutton actually saw fewer red zone looks than Troy Franklin in 2025.
Sutton’s role is going to be threatened bigly by Jaylen Waddle’s addition to the Denver lineup. Broncos beat writers have been nearly unanimous in naming Waddle the team’s No. 1 wideout headed into 2026, and Payton — who is putting on a brave face and handing play-calling duties to OC Davis Webb — said the Broncos would add “speed packages” for Waddle, who’s expected to play from the slot and the boundary in Denver’s offense.
Nix, meanwhile, ranked 27th out of 40 qualifying QBs last season in adjusted yards per attempt on throws to slot receivers and ranked 29th in accuracy on slot attempts. You’re pointing to the scoreboard again, I know.
A relatively fast-paced Broncos offense without anything resembling a viable running game could produce the sort of target volume that makes Waddle a key pick in fantasy drafts this summer. He will certainly be undervalued after his production cratered in Miami last year.
Evan Engram didn’t fall off in any major efficiency category last year. It was his route participation (51 percent) that destroyed his fantasy value after an offseason of Payton talking up Engram as a key part of the team’s passing attack. Engram in 2025 was targeted on a solid 22 percent of his routes and averaged 6.2 yards after contact per reception, the second highest mark among Denver pass catchers. If, for whatever reason, Webb sees fit to have Engram run 70 to 80 percent of the team’s routes in 2026, he could be a perfectly playable PPR option. Engram drew rave reviews from Broncos beat writers during OTAs and has a history with Webb. So, he has that going for him, which is nice.
Franklin, meanwhile, was an air yards eater in 2025 who sometimes came down with the long ball and made fantasy managers feel quite smart for one Sunday afternoon. The downfield looks from Nix led to Franklin notching more expected fantasy points than DeVonta Smith, Ladd McConkey, and Tee Higgins. He has some fantasy juice -- and a decent connection with his former college teammate, Nix -- but Waddle’s emergence could wipe out snaps and routes for Franklin in 2026.
▶ Running Game
RB: JK Dobbins, RJ Harvey, Jonah Coleman, Jaleel McLaughlin
OL (L-R): Garrett Bowles, Ben Powers, Luke Wattenberg, Quinn Meinerz, Mike McGlinchey
Denver’s rushing attack was ordinary before Dobbins’ season-ending injury in Week 10. It was downright awful after that, with Harvey functioning as the de facto lead back despite being terrible.
From Week 11 to 18, the Broncos ranked 23rd in EPA per rush, below the Cardinals somehow. They averaged 103.5 rushing yards per game over the span, ranking 22nd in the league; they were 23rd in explosive rush rate; they were 29th in yards after contact per rush attempt; and they ranked near the bottom of the NFL in missed tackles forced. This was a function of Harvey and McLaughlin being below replacement level as rushers. So it goes.
Make no mistake: Dobbins was the team’s lead back before his season ender. He logged 153 carries to just 50 for Harvey through ten weeks. Dobbins’ 55 percent rushing success rate in 2025 was miles ahead of Harvey’s 34 percent. Not exactly elusive, Dobbins managed to outdo Harvey in missed tackled forced per rush. The problem, of course, is that Dobbins was treated as a prototypical TRAP back, seeing the vast majority of his touches (rushes) between the twenties while losing out on a lot of inside-the-10 action. It’s tough to feel good about drafting a running back — however reasonable his ADP — who is going to give you 86 hard-earned, scoreless yards on 19 carries in a good week.
Harvey has been sidelined for most offseason practices after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum he suffered in the Broncos’ AFC title game loss. I think fantasy folks would do well to remember Harvey averaged 7.9 opportunities per game with Dobbins in the lineup last season (he averaged 18 with Dobbins sidelined). A decently efficient pass catcher, Harvey doesn’t have much in the way of fantasy appeal going into his second NFL season.
That’s because, in part, the Broncos selected Jonah Coleman with the 109th pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Coleman enters the league with a largely overlooked profile, having posted a 75th percent dominator rating (percentage of total team yards and touchdowns) along with 55 receptions over his final two seasons. At Washington, Coleman was productive and no one really cared. He logged 25 rushing touchdowns over his final two collegiate seasons. Before his underwhelming 2025 season — during which he struggled with injury — Coleman was top-five in the nation in yards after contact per rush in 2024. That season he forced a missed tackle on 34 percent of his rushing attempts, one of the highest rates in the country.
I’m willing to bet Coleman is better than Harvey -- certainly as a rusher and perhaps as a pass catcher. A frustrating timeshare backfield is the likeliest outcome for this Broncos backfield, but Coleman, I think, has a chance to emerge as Davis Webb’s lead back with a healthy early part of the regular season. Denver beat writers believe the rookie will “probably” get some work early in the season after being “heavily involved in the Broncos’ passing game” during OTAs and flashing the necessary “open-field burst to be a threat on screen passes and choice routes out of the backfield.”
2026 Denver Broncos Win Total
DraftKings over/under: 9.5
Pick: Over (-110)
My skepticism of Nix as a legit franchise quarterback won’t stop me from (easily) taking the over on 9.5 wins for Denver. Last year, they ranked fourth in average scoring margin (+4.7) thanks to an elite defense, a good special teams unit, and a viable offense.
Payton’s confidence in Webb — for now — suggests the young guy has what it takes to make the spreadsheets hum, even with a so-so quarterback under center.
Note: All fantasy numbers are based on full-PPR scoring. Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com.
