We’re just one week out from the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft and besides the No. 1 overall selection, a ton of mystery remains.
Could the Texans really pass on a quarterback at No. 2, sending the top 10 into chaos? I’ll dive into all of that, as well as break down my updated rankings for quarterbacks and tight ends and, as always, close things out with three on the rise in dynasty with some deep sleepers.
Next week, I’ll bring you my top 300 players and a final three-round mock draft.
Latest Draft Markets: Value In The Top Five
With Alabama QB Bryce Young the runaway favorite at -1200 via DraftKings to go first overall to the Panthers, the real fun gets started with the Texans at No. 2.
Let’s start with what we’re sure of in this slot. First, it would be a shock to see Houston trade this pick, but no longer a surprise if new head coach DeMeco Ryans passes on quarterback. Alabama EDGE Will Anderson is the favorite at +150, but there’s not much value there.
I like Texas A&M EDGE Tyree Wilson at +250, which seems a little high considering how much praise I’ve heard for him in the top five of this draft. The Texans could feel pressure to take a quarterback here (Kentucky’s Will Levis is the favorite at +250), but who are they competing against to land him this early? The only team that comes to mind is division rival Indianapolis, which currently sit at No. 4
The third overall pick is yet another wild card but for different reasons. Arizona would love to move this pick to a quarterback-needy team, which is why Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud is the favorite at +125, despite there not being a ton of buzz around anyone wanting this pick. If Arizona does get “stuck” in this spot, the value on Will Anderson (+250) and Tyree Wilson (+400) is excellent. I can’t see the Cardinals, with a first year GM in Monti Ossenfort, taking the swing on Georgia DL Jalen Carter (+1200), especially with one of Anderson or Wilson almost assuredly still on the board.
In the fourth overall slot, the Colts have to take a quarterback. It feels like this is GM Chris Ballard‘s last chance to get right in that spot. All of the buzz is around Will Levis this week, but keep in mind the closer we get to the draft, the more likely it’s an attempt to throw other teams off. Ballard prioritizes traits and Levis has them, but there isn’t much to gain with odds of +150 here. If you’re going to swing at all in this slot, I like the idea of sprinkling on Florida QB Anthony Richardson at +425. He fits as a traits-based pick, but in an even bigger way isn’t it odd how quiet things have been about Richardson this month?
To close this out, the Seahawks pick No. 5 overall. The favorite is Will Anderson (+200) followed by Tyree Wilson (+250). It’s hard to feel overly confident that both will be on the board and there isn’t a big advantage in those odds. Seattle has taken risks in the past on high-end talent with question marks in the draft and when you turn on the tape, Jalen Carter is the most dominant prospect in this class. His evaluation is obviously more complicated than that, but at +300 the Seahawks seem like the most logical early destination for him.
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Updated QB Rankings
1. Bryce Young, Alabama
Although an outlier due to his size, it can’t be overstated how great of a quarterback prospect Bryce Young is. His pre-snap IQ and full field reading is on the level of a pro. Despite his stature, he’s an excellent middle of the field thrower and when the play breaks down, he can reset in tight areas to deliver the football. He should be an efficient passer very early on in his NFL career.
2. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
C.J. Stroud checks all the boxes as a pocket passer. He’s got the size, consistent mechanics and accuracy to all three levels of the field to succeed. When he was kept upright, there was no chance of stopping him. If he can continue to unlock his scrambling ability when he needs it, his game will evolve. Without that, he still has a starter’s floor.
3. Anthony Richardson, Florida
If drafting based on tools, Richardson would be the runaway No. 1 selection. He’s not just an NFL Combine hero (although the 4.43 forty and 40.5” vertical at 244 pounds is jaw dropping), his athleticism and rocket arm pop on tape. While he needs to clean up his mechanics to become a more consistent short and intermediate thrower, his upward trajectory in the second half of the season shows significant promise.
4. Will Levis, Kentucky
Will Levis is the most polarizing passer in this class, based on tape. Like Stroud and Richardson, he has the desired size for the position. He has experience playing in an offense that ran pro concepts and shows no fear hanging in the pocket to make difficult throws. He has the arm strength to drive throws outside the numbers and the added bonus of being an impactful short-yardage runner.
Where it goes wrong for Levis is his inconsistent accuracy and decision making. The former is more of a factor from timing than lacking the raw ability to make throws. While his targets dropped a whopping 15 passes (per PFF) in 2022, he didn’t make a ton of game-changing throws. A redshirt year in the NFL could do him wonders, but I’m not sure he’ll be afforded that luxury.
5. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
Over the last two seasons in the SEC, Hendon Hooker has thrown for 58 touchdowns and five interceptions on 631 pass attempts. That’s elite ball security through the air. He’s mastered how to put the ball in advantageous spots for his targets when given the time.
Where Hooker drastically needs to improve is under pressure. Per PFF, he took 27 sacks on 93 pressured dropbacks in 2022 and his yards per attempt went down from 9.8 to 6.9. Plus, while he didn’t turn the ball over through the air very much, he did fumble seven times last season.
6. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA
7. Jake Haener, Fresno State
8. Clayton Tune, Houston
9. Aidan O’Connell, Purdue
10. Max Duggan, TCU
Out of the next five, I’m intrigued by the long term backup ability of Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He started for five years under Chip Kelly at UCLA and steadily improved over that timespan. His mobility allows him to buy time as a thrower, where he showed quick twitch and a shoulder dip to evade pass rushers. He utilized the middle of the field when the play breaks down, having a good understanding of where his targets are. His vision and decision making against defenders sitting in zone needs improvement, but he’s the Day 3 quarterback I would take a swing on.
Updated TE Rankings
I truly believe this tight end class can help reset the wasteland the position has become in fantasy football. It might not have a Kyle Pitts-level prospect that has you dreaming above and beyond, but the floors here are extremely promising.
1. Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
Mayer is a chains-moving machine, hauling in 89 first downs over the last two seasons (per PFF). In that same span he posted over 1,600 receiving yards with 16 touchdowns. His physicality both as a pass catcher and blocker will keep him on the field, presenting consistent opportunities.
2. Darnell Washington, Georgia
While blocking is his calling card, you have to wonder what Darnell Washington could’ve done if not for playing alongside the best tight end in college football in Brock Bowers. His receiving opportunities were limited, but his size and straight line speed makes him a dynamic threat.
3. Dalton Kincaid, Utah
From a fantasy perspective, Kincaid has far and away the highest ceiling. In 2022, he had 70 catches for 890 yards and eight touchdowns, showing off excellent ball skills and a useful catch radius. I think he had the best hands in the draft -- and that includes the wide receiver class. His blocking leaves a lot to be desired, but he should thrive as a move tight end.
4. Tucker Kraft, South Dakota State
Kraft is a small school product but his 4.69 forty and 10'2” broad jump at 6'5, 254 pounds are promising metrics to go with his production. I love his run after catch ability.
5. Sam LaPorta, Iowa
Sam LaPorta was used all over in Iowa’s offense, a true jack of all trades player. The Hawkeyes’ passing attack held him back at times, but he still caught 53 passes for 592 yards. He’s another tight end that fits the mold of being a consistent target to keep drives alive.
6. Luke Musgrave, Oregon State
7. Luke Schoonmaker, Michigan
8. Brenton Strange, Penn State
9. Elijah Higgins, Stanford
10. Zack Kuntz, Old Dominion
Out of the next five, Luke Musgrave is the most polarizing. There aren’t a lot of pass catchers that come in around 6'6, over 250 pounds and post an 88th percentile forty (4.61) and a 93rd percentile broad jump (10' 5”). He lost much of his final college season due to injury, but there’s a sample size on tape and the athleticism to work vertically up the seam at the next level. That should lead to some big plays.
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Dynasty Outlook, Three Up
Deneric Prince, RB, Tulsa
A size and speed running back prospect, Prince helped himself at the NFL Combine when he ran a 4.41 forty at 216 pounds. That matches the build-up speed he generates on tape at the second level for chunk plays. If he lands in a fantasy-friendly offense, he’ll be an interesting dart throw on the backend of drafts, like Isiah Pacheco was last year.
Michael Wilson, WR, Stanford
If not for poor injury luck throughout college, you have to wonder where Wilson would stack up in this wide receiver class.
When you turn on the tape, he has above average body control and maximizes his catch radius. He looked like the best receiver for much of Senior Bowl week. His reliable run blocking increases his chances of getting on the field early and carving out a role.
Wilson’s health questions are a wild card, but his size and explosiveness gives him upside compared to where he’ll be picked.
Dayian Henley, LB, Washington State
To put it quite simply for the IDP crowd, Henley has been a playmaking machine over the last two seasons.
In that span, he has 200 tackles, five interceptions, four sacks, three forced fumbles and five recovered. His play speed is excellent. If he lands on an NFL team with a defensive front that gives him the space to run and chase, he’ll be highly productive early on.
