The holiday break is a good time to rest for fantasy golf enthusiasts, but it’s also when many season-long leagues decide to run their drafts.
There is a large variety of leagues and scoring types so there will never be a perfect ranking but I will do my best to lay out some options with my top 150 list. If a golfer grades out well for a particular scoring format, I will try to include that nugget.
I’m breaking out my top 150 in chunks of 25 so if you missed the first two, here they are:
100. Sam Ryder
Baseline Ranking: 94
1-Year Starts: 27
Notes: He’s posted at least one podium finish in each of his five seasons on the PGA TOUR. He was top 100 in approach and putting last season which is a good recipe for success, particularly on shorter or more forgiving courses where his sub-par driving can hide a little.
99. Adam Long
Baseline Ranking: 95
1-Year Starts: 25
Notes: He’s a volume hitter with at least 25 starts in all four seasons on the big stage. He just posted a personal best for single-season top 25s (10). He’s racked up at least eight of those in each of the past three seasons.
98. Danny Willett
Baseline Ranking: 92
1-Year Starts: 26
Notes: The Englishman opened the new season with a runner-up finish in Napa but ended the fall with back-to-back WDs. Still splitting time between tours, last year’s 21 PGA TOUR starts was his career high and might be his ceiling (unless he ignores the DP World Tour).
97. Daniel Berger
Baseline Ranking: 18
1-Year Starts: 11
Notes: Injuries hang over his hang as we enter 2023. As you see from his baseline ranking (18th) he would be a steal at this point of a draft. The problem is that he only played 12 events last season due to injury and we don’t have any idea how that will impact him moving forward. If we see him slipping down the draft board and want a high-upside pick then give him a look but otherwise you are taking a gamble if you draft him based on his efficiency numbers alone.
96. Ryan Palmer
Baseline Ranking: 89
1-Year Starts: 21
Notes: The 46-year-old is an established asset. He’s finished top 100 in the FedExCup in 12 of the last 13 years. The possible problem? He managed just one top 10 last season which is the first time he’s landed less than three in a season, since 2009. He also lost strokes on approach last season, another sign that the aging curve might finally be catching up to him.
95. Martin Laird
Baseline Ranking: 59
1-Year Starts: 21
Notes: The Scot played his way through some injuries in recent years but it’s not impacting his game when healthy. Laird ranked 30th in tee-to-green last season, ranking top 60 in all three sub-categories. On paper, he’s a strong pick anytime after 60th but I would be more cautious based on some injury concerns which may or may not impact him in 2023.
94. Nick Taylor
Baseline Ranking: 91
1-Year Starts: 26
Notes: The Canadian plays a lot and earns a lot of paychecks. He owns a 142-for-231 record over the course of his career. That 61% clip is very strong, especially for someone that hasn;t padded those stats with a lot of WGCs or other no-cut events. He’s won twice but those remain his only two career podiums.
93. Greyson Sigg
Baseline Ranking: 81
1-Year Starts: 26
Notes: Sigg was just 125th in par breakers last season but he’s 81st in adjusted baseline performance. He’s sporting a 67% cuts-made ratio through 45 career starts. That steady play gives him a nice floor, but we would like to see a high rate of birdies.
92. Francesco Molinari
Baseline Ranking: 80
1-Year Starts: 20
Notes: The 40-year-old Italian has flashed hints at a return to form but five of his last 25 worldwide starts have come on the DP World Tour and he’s eclipsed 18 starts on the PGA TOUR just twice (2017, 2018). Low volume and no longer playing at his peak level. The reasons to draft him? He will likely go lower than he should based on these facts and he can still hang in the strongest of fields, when his game is clicking.
91. Callum Tarren
Baseline Ranking: 96
1-Year Starts: 28
Notes: The big hitter has the profile you love to see when looking for long-term consistency. He ranked 83rd in strokes gained tee-to-green despite losing strokes around the green. He signed off with a runner-up finish at the RSM which could be a sign of what’s to come in 2023.
90. Lee Hodges
Baseline Ranking: 87
1-Year Starts: 28
Notes: The Alabama native landed five top 25s in his rookie season, missing the cut in just 11 of 29 starts. He gained strokes in all three sub-categories of strokes gained with putting being his main weakness. Was just 132nd in par breaker percentage so not the most friendly fantasy scorer.
89. David Lipsky
Baseline Ranking: 86
1-Year Starts: 27
Notes: He piled up eight top 25s while finishing 40th in strokes gained approach last season. He’s the prototype of fairways-and-greens golf which doesn’t always translate to the weekly TOUR grind but he’ll definitely pop on some of the shorter courses that don’t demand distance.
88. Will Gordon
Baseline Ranking: 110
1-Year Starts: 30
Notes: Gordon was forced back down to the Korn Ferry Tour after flashing some big game early in his career on the big stage. His talent really showed on the lower circuit, bagging six top 10s last season to play his way back to the PGA TOUR. Gordon is a scoring machine, ranking 27th in birdie rate this fall. He should be given a big bump in leagues that heavily weigh hole-by-hole scoring output (birdies and eagles).
87. Kevin Streelman
Baseline Ranking: 85
1-Year Starts: 26
Notes: The 44-year-old continues to play a heavy schedule and continues to land more than his fair share of top 25s. He’s finished top 100 in the FedExCup in all but one season, dating back to 2008. His profile reads very similarly to Ryan Palmer above but Streelman is a few years younger and hasn’t seen any age-related falloff (yet).
86. Hayden Buckley
Baseline Ranking: 109
1-Year Starts: 28
Notes: Buckley has an elite driver but gets the job done in a unique way. If you look at the leaderboard for off-the-tee play you’ll see bombers littered all over the top. Buckley managed to rank 13th in strokes gained off-the-tee despite ranking 98th in distance. His elite precision with just enough distance is really a strong skill that should produce a higher rate of big finishes.
85. Austin Eckroat
Baseline Ranking: 117
1-Year Starts: 24
Notes: The Oklahoma State product turns 24 in early January but it feels like he’s been lingering around for a while now. He flashed his potential last season on the Korn Ferry circuit with top 25s in 10-of-16 events. He needs to tidy up the short-game skills but his driver is a serious weapon.
84. Robby Shelton
Baseline Ranking: 115
1-Year Starts: 30
Notes: Looking for a post-hype breakout candidate? Shelton may be your guy. He bagged three top 10s his first season on TOUR but missed 21 cuts the following year to lose his status. He rebounded in a big way with two wins and a runner-up finish last season on the KFT. He kept the momentum rolling with top 25s in 4-of-7 starts this fall, hoping to stick around for the long haul this time.
83. Russell Knox
Baseline Ranking: 83
1-Year Starts: 26
Notes: He finished top 40 FedExCup three straight years, early in his career. Since then, he’s landed outside the top 70 in the season-long race for six straight years. He was 19th in driving accuracy and 4th in GIR Percentage last season but just 179th in putting. You could say that’s the easiest area to fix but Knox has never finished top 100 in putting so it’s hard to bank on that improvement at this stage of his career. If he does, it’s just an added bonus.
82. Justin Rose
Baseline Ranking: 53
1-Year Starts: 16
Notes: He plays a light schedule which works well when you flirt with top 10s in basically half your starts. It doesn’t work so well when you are struggling with your game and also battling your body (injuries). The latter is what we’ve seen with Rose in recent years. Drafting Rose is really for that “just in case” insurance. If he finds his old game for a month or two then he easily pays off his price tag.
81. Carl Yuan
Baseline Ranking: 88
1-Year Starts: 26
Notes: When I did my analysis of the KFT grads, Yuan was a standout but he disappointed in the fall with nothing better than a T35 finish, in five tries, missing three cuts. On the bright side, he was top 45 in the fall in both off-the-tee and approach play. Short game looks to be a serious weakness but his ball-striking profile screams “breakout candidate.”
80. Rickie Fowler
Baseline Ranking: 84
1-Year Starts: 21
Notes: For the last four years we’ve been hearing about how his swing changes just need to kick in to reignite his game. Well, he finally made the switch back to Butch Harmon and landed two top 10s in the fall, which is the same amount of top 10s that he posted in the previous two seasons combined. It might be too early to say he’s back, but there is definitely top-tier upside possible when you draft Fowler this year.
79. Stephan Jaeger
Baseline Ranking: 82
1-Year Starts: 28
Notes: I made the comp to Abraham Ancer last year but Jaeger didn’t really live up to that hype. There was plenty of good (six top 25s) but he also missed the cut in 16-of-31 starts. What we saw in the fall (6-for-7 with a top 10) was more in line with what I was expecting last year. Perhaps I was just one year early but there is still a lot of breakout potential here for someone that can rack up birdies in bunches.
78. Troy Merritt
Baseline Ranking: 79
1-Year Starts: 27
Notes: He found his groove later than most but has now finished top 80 FedExCup in four straight seasons. He’s posted a win or runner-up finish in four of the last five seasons. It was a balanced attack that got the job done last season, ranking 81st tee-to-green while also ranking 43rd in putting.
77. Taylor Moore
Baseline Ranking: 78
1-Year Starts: 27
Notes: The 29-year-old landed four top 10s in his rookie campaign. That would have been more notable most years but it was a strong rookie class so he got overshadowed a bit. He can heat up with the best of them as he ranked 32nd in birdies per round last season. Give him a bump if your league heavily weighs birdies.
76. J.J. Spaun
Baseline Ranking: 77
1-Year Starts: 27
Notes: A diabetes misdiagnosis slowed his career progression but he’s back on track, posting a 19-for-29 record last season that included his maiden win. His stats don’t leap off the page but he did gain fractions off-the-tee, on approach, and putting.