The Boys of Bet the EDGE broke down this weekend’s games on today’s episode. Here are their thoughts on a couple of the games.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+400) @ Buffalo Bills (-550) | Spread: Bills -10 | O/U: 35.5
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) has a position on the Bills making a deep run in the playoffs, but he likes the Steelers against that big number.
“These next few minutes may age like spoiled milk, but yes, I think that the Steelers are live. I think the Bills are wildly overrated by market right now particularly on offense.”
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And his thesis that the Steelers are live is based on more than just an overhyped Bills’ team.
“There’s a chance that Mason Rudolph has turned the page. We haven’t seen a lot of Mason Rudolph with the current regime in terms of offensive coordinating, and he’s playing better. I’ve tried to poke holes in this. I’ve watched the film now a couple of times in his games against the Bengals and the Seahawks. While those defenses are not defenses that I’m going to go to war with at all, Mason Rudolph was good. I think ultimately, the idea that he is able to cover a 10-point spread, I’m fine with that. The fact that this is a phenomenally low total and you’re catching 10 points, wonderful. Sign me up.”
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) likes the Bills but not to cover the spread necessarily.
“Just the talent mismatch is so emphatic in this one but that is counteracted a little bit by the conditions and the low total. I do think if there is one quarterback in NFL history who is immune to 25 mile per hour winds it is Josh Allen. I think that Allen will be fine with the conditions but I’m a little bit worried as someone who has a lot of Bills’ futures positions which have gone on an absolute Odyssey this season. I am a bit worried about the Steelers’ running the ball and the fact that the Bills have a bad rushing defense this year. The Steelers seem to have found something on the ground but ultimately, you’d expect that the Bills will have too much to advance. Maybe covering ten will be a bit beyond them, though.”
Dinsick agreed and said it comes down to who can get the tough yards near the goal line.
“This is going to come down to redzone efficiency I think in terms of who gets the win. I think people are a little bit too excited about a Bills’ team that has put things together down the stretch, but they’ve largely done it with some defensive efficiency that may not necessarily be what matters in a game that has this type of (weather) condition. So yeah, for me, Pittsburgh is the side at 10 and I have no real opinion on the total.”
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Green Bay Packers (+275) @ Dallas Cowboys (-350) | Spread: Cowboys -7 | O/U: 50.5
Both Jay and Drew have Futures Tickets on the Cowboys.
Jay Croucher dove into this matchup and noted his favorite prop right off the top.
“Jordan Love is set at 248½ passing yards which seems staggeringly low to me. I would have expected this would be 25 yards higher. He’s gone over this number in seven of the past nine and a lot of those he wasn’t a touchdown underdog in a playoff game in effectively a dome. I don’t know what is going on with that number but that would be my best bet here.”
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Drew Dinsick likes the Packers in a high-scoring game.
“I don’t see a huge margin of difference between these two teams. They’re very similar in a lot of regards and I think that the key strength on the defensive side of the ball for the Cowboys with their pass rush is neutralized by a healthy and extremely effective offensive line for the Packers. This is going to be a track meet. I think the total tells you that both of these teams could make their team totals.”
Croucher is not a believer in the Dallas defense.
“I think one of the great myths in the NFL this season has been the Dallas defense where clearly they’re a good unit, but the idea that they’re a dominant unit, I think has been kind of washed away.”
Dinsick believes this game could be tight well into the 4th quarter.
“This is a game that I think is going to be decided in the balance late. I don’t see either of these teams really running away and hiding. I think ultimately this comes down to in-game decision making and coaching and honestly for me that tilts in favor of Matt LaFleur and not Mike McCarthy. I took the 7½ points with the Packers and the market finally came with me to seven today.”
On a weekend slated to have nasty weather and cold temperatures splattered across the country, grab a spot on the couch and enjoy a good sweat or two watching a handful of NFL playoff games.
*odds courtesy of DraftKings
