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Vermont at Northern Iowa (-6): O/U 132.5
Vermont enters this contest as one of the most experienced teams in the country.
The Catamounts have nine seniors in their 10-man rotation and that will make Vermont a team worth backing all season.
This spread opened at -2.5 in favor of Northern Iowa and climbed out to -6.5. Well, that is a large jump and I am willing to grab at the +6.
Northern Iowa lost the season-opener to Nicholls State, 62-58. Only two players hit double-digits.
The Panthers shot 13% from three in that game, and the Catamounts ranked 46th in the country last season with a 31.2% three-point defense. If Northern Iowa struggles from three again, well the cover is open for Vermont.
This will be the season-opener for Vermont. The Catamounts are 6-4 ATS in the last 10 games as a road dog and 3-1 in the last four road games overall, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
They played some impressive opponents like Kentucky, Kansas, St. John’s, Virginia and more during their road underdog stretch.
Vermont was a road favorite in all six games of 2020, covering three and winning four outright.
In two exhibition games, Vermont shot 49% from three, hitting 20-of-33 from deep. Last season, the Catamounts hit 34.4% from three (146th) and returned plenty of experience.
Vermont was also one of the best teams (top 30) in the country with blocks per game (6.7), defensive rebound percentage (23.2%), two-point percentage (54.4%) and free-throw percentage (78%) last season.
There is no reason to believe Vermont will not be one of the better teams in all of those categories again.
I expect a close game between the two schools. Northern Iowa is 1-3-1 ATS in the last five as a home favorite, but better yet, 6-9 on the ML following a loss over the last 15 tries.
Vermont is also 2-1 SU against current Missouri Valley Conference opponents.
The Catamounts are live to give the Panthers a second-straight loss, so take the points down to +4.5, but I prefer +5 or better.
Pick: Vermont +6 (1u)
Northern Colorado (-2.5) at Hawaii: O/U 138
To my East Coast people, this will be one of the bets you place and wake up in the morning hoping to start your Friday morning off with a win.
With a midnight ET start, Hawaii is a challenging location to travel and get up for. However, Northern Colorado opened their season against Pacific in Hawaii already, so that helps the Bears.
Northern Colorado jumped out to a 38-29 halftime lead before winning, 67-65.
The craziest part of the Bears’ two-point win was the “big four” of Bodie Hume, Kur Jongkuch, Daylen Kountz and Matt Johnson II. The four combined for 65 of Northern Colorado’s 67 points.
That cannot happen regularly as the bench went 1-of-7 (14.2%) with two rebounds and one assist among four players.
Hawaii is without Samuta Avea and Juan Munoz for the season, but brought in Jerome Desrosiers (Princeton) and Kamaka Hepa (Texas). The Rainbow Warriors return two starters and eight letter-winners from last year’s team.
The Warriors won the season-opener easily versus a tune-up squad and have size down low that could make life difficult for the Bears.
Hawaii’s Kamaka Hepa (6-foot-10) and Mate Colina (7-foot) are the Warriors’ 1-2 punch down low with Bernardo Da Silva (6-foot-9) and Jerome Desrosiers (6-foot-7) off the bench.
Hawaii will go against a Northern Colorado frontcourt that’s tallest starter stands at 6-foot-9. On the bench, Northern Colorado has two players 6-foot-1 or shorter and two big men that combined to play 12 minutes in the season-opener.
I like Hawaii’s depth, size and homecourt advantage, so I will take the Warriors +2.5. Multiple models I use have Hawaii as the winner or a one-point loser.
When Hawaii is a home underdog of +1 through +3, they are 11-4 ATS in the past 15 (73.3%) and covered in six of the previous eight (75%). I would play Hawaii down to +1 as I like the chances they get the victory.
Pick: Hawaii +2.5 (1u)
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