Eric Froton is previewing every Big Ten squad by looking back at their 2022 season, breaking down any changes in 2023, analyzing their rosters and handicapping their win total for the season.
First up, Nebraska Cornhuskers and new head coach Matt Rhule.
HC - Matt Rhule (1st year)
OC - Marcus Satterfield
DC - Tony White
2022 Record: 4-8
Second Order Win Total: 4.8 (+0.8)
2022 Over/Under: 7.5
Points/Yards Per Game: 22.6 points | 344 yards (221 Pass | 123 Rush)
Points/Yards Allowed: 27.6 points | 414 yards (225 Pass | 189 Rush)
2023 SP+ Overall: 49th
2023 SP+ Offense: 65th
2023 SP+ Defense: 35th
2022 SP+ Special Teams: 108th
Offensive Returning Production: 46.5% (109th)
Defensive Returning Production: 59% (76th)
247Sports Avg. Offensive Player Rating: .8794 (18th)
247Sports Avg. Defensive Player Rating: .8739 (25th)
Pace of Play: 66.9 Plays Per Game (82nd) | 31.2 Seconds Per Play (129th)
2023 Schedule Strength: 51st
Looking Back at 2022
Prior to last season, some CFB prognosticators posed the question of whether Nebraska’s 2021 team that went 3-9, with every loss being by single digits, was the best three-win team in recent memory. It’s safe to say that narrative has gone the way of the Blackberry in the iPhone era and last year wasn’t pretty.
The Huskers’ offense was rated 35th in SP+ heading into the year, but finished 72nd despite having a .8761 average 247Sports prospect ranking, which was the 26th most talented in the nation. It was the same story on defense, where they finished 2022 as the 61st rated unit despite having the 29th-most talented roster.
Three of their four victories came against Rutgers (14-13), Indiana (35-21) and North Dakota. Their fourth victory came in the last game of the season after losing five-straight games and somehow pulling out a 24-17 “dead-cat-bounce” victory, to use political terminology, against Iowa in their season finale. Other than a 43-37 loss to Purdue where the Huskers had a 60% win expectancy, most of their losses were completely justified, as was the unceremonious dismissal of former Nebraska prodigal son, Scott Frost.
Looking ahead to 2023
Enter former Baylor and Carolina Panthers HC Matt Rhule in 2023 who steps in to hopefully resurrect NU and restore the program to the halcyon days of the Tom Osborne-era. Fifteen starters return (7 Offense/8 Defense) but the roster turns over 45 lettermen, as is customary in the Transfer Portal Era when a new staff comes to town.
Offensively, I’ve been waiting for a competent OC to tailor their scheme to fit Jeff Sims’ (6’4/219) dynamic dual-threat capabilities. Chip Long was certainly not the guy to do it at Georgia Tech last year, but can new OC Marcus Satterfield harness Sims’ potential? He orchestrated Rhule’s potent offenses at Temple from 2013-15 where the Owls finished the season ranked 13th overall in the nation before Rhule took the Baylor job. Satterfield has been on every staff Rhule has coached for the last decade and is a trusted lieutenant who will have plenty of autonomy running the O.
He will be tasked with rebuilding a porous OL that ranked 127th in pressures allowed (3.4% | 2.1% is Nat. Avg.), 124th in blown block rate (2.1%) and 110th in sacks per dropback (8.2%). Just about every line metric followed the same trend, as the Huskers struggled to changeover from a run-based scheme to 1st year OC Mark Whipple’s pass-heavy offense.
The good news is the OL as a whole is a talented group, led by top-10 tackle recruit LT Turner Corcoran and two-year starter RT Bryce Benhart. They bring in Georgia OL Jacob Hood and C Ben Scott who started 28 games at Arizona State. RG Nouredin Nouili started seven games for the Huskers in 2021 and returns after missing last season for disciplinary reasons.
In all, the Cornhuskers have 120 line-starts returning and should have demonstrably better results with a seasoned OC like Satterfield who has an OL coaching background. They’ll be blocking for a backfield tandem of Gabe Ervin and last year’s leading rusher, Anthony Grant (218 carries, 915 yards, 6 TDs). The two are neck-and-neck at the moment, with Ervin having the edge according to the preseason publications Athlon and Phil Steele.
NU will miss its leading wide receiver, NFL Day 3 selection Trey Palmer, as four of the top five pass-catchers depart. Four-star sophomore WR Zavier Betts (6’2/200) will have his opportunity to contribute alongside leading returnee Marcus Washington (31-471-1) and UVA transfer Billy Kemp, whose slot prowess allowed him to secure 141-of-196 targets in 2020 & 2021 before getting injured last year. Sophomore TE Thomas Fidone was rated as the No. 1 tight end from the 2021 class and 46th overall player in the nation from his prep class; his time has come. He will be flanked by another mega-prospect TE in Arik Gilbert who was the top-rated high school TE in 247Sports history, though he has failed to make the expected impact thus far in his collegiate career.
The defense is led by new DC Tony White who previously led Syracuse the last three years with his trademark 3-3-5 scheme to great effect. When he arrived at Cuse in 2020, the Orange had allowed 464 yards and 31 points per game the year prior and returned just four starters. Over the last two years, his defenses allowed 3.6 yards per carry and 330 yards of total offense per game, while allowing 26 PPG in 2021 and just 23 PPG last year. His Syracuse defense was as good as any unit in the country at suppressing big plays in 2022, ranking second in FBS in IsoPPP and Marginal Explosiveness, and third overall by allowing just a 8.1% explosive play rate. The Orange also held opponents to 3.7 points per scoring opportunity, which ranked 26th nationally. White’s defense managed to snuff out chunk plays and stiffen up in the red zone, which is a great place to be.
If there’s a critique, Cuse allowed a 50% rushing success rate (120th) and failed to make plays in the backfield, ranking 122nd with a 13% stuff rate. No such issues in the defensive backfield though, ranking 21st with 5.6 yards allowed per dropback and third overall with just 10.2% of completions going for 20+ yards.
White has eight returning starters to work with at Nebraska, including four of the top-five tacklers and the entire secondary. The staff brought in some serious talent via the portal as well, with highly-touted LB MJ Sherman coming in from Georgia and Florida S Corey Collier set to make immediate impacts. CBs Quinton Newsome and Malcom Hartzog, who was the first true freshman CB starter for Nebraska since 2016, are a formidable duo. Marques Buford, Isaac Gifford and Myles Farmer are all experienced safeties who helped the Huskers rank 10th in FBS in suppressing explosiveness. Ideally, White’s tutelage should help the secondary improve upon their woeful 23.3% “wide open pass” rate, which ranked 97th nationally. While the back-seven is fully stocked with leading tackler LB Luke Reimer and LB Nick Henrich back, the biggest question mark on the defense is how to rebuild a defensive line that loses the top-four TFL artists on the roster?
Departing Edges Garrett Nelson, Ochaun Mathis and Caleb Tannor, plus IDL Colton Feist, accounted for 27 of the team’s 60 TFL last year. That’s a lot of production to replace from a defense that ranked 125th in rushing success rate (52%) and a decrepit 129th in standard downs line yards per carry at 3.04. IDL Ty Robinson (6’6/310) is back, but questions remain about how well this front will hold up against the massive OLs the Big Ten schedule is going to throw at them. It’s fair to speculate how immediate White’s impact will be in that facet of the game considering Syracuse ranked 120th overall with a 50% rushing success rate after three years of White running the defense there.
Analyzing Nebraska’s Win Total
The first half of the schedule is no joke as the Huskers open at Big Ten West rival Minnesota on Thursday Aug. 31 in one of the first CFB games to be broadcasted in 2023. Then they travel across the country to Boulder to take on the Colorado Prime Buffaloes in what should be quite a spectacle between new head coaches Prime & Rhule. Nebraska are +7.5 dogs at the Gophers in a game that CFB Winning Edge gives NU a 37% win expectancy, and -8.5 favorites with a 61% win expectancy at Colorado. They’ll be 17-point+ favorites versus G5 opponents NIU and Louisiana Tech before the rubber meets the road against Michigan at home.
NU closes out the first half at Illinois in a Friday night game before the Week 7 bye in a game where they project to be getting a field goal. I like the way their post-bye slate lines up, as they get both Northwestern and Purdue in Lincoln, before making just their second road trip since Sept. 9 when facing re-tooling Michigan State in Lansing. Throw in another home tilt against Maryland at home and you’ve got a pretty manageable four-game stretch post-bye where Nebraska could go on a run. They wrap up the season with an unforgiving road trip to Camp Randle against Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin squad, before welcoming Big Ten West heavyweight Iowa. At least they get the Hawkeyes at Memorial Stadium as opposed to the other way around.
I got burned last year by foolishly believing in Scott Frost’s Year 5, but I can’t help but like the talent level here (18th in 247Sports Avg. offensive player rating | 25th in defensive player rating). With a new staff, a more dynamic playmaking QB in Jeff Sims and a new HC Matt Rhule that had major success at Baylor, I think Nebraska can achieve bowl eligibility out of its 51st ranked schedule.
Draft Kings lists Nebraska’s number at 6 wins (-130 Over), while FanDuel is at 6.5 (+116 Over). With a brand new staff in town and Nebraska carrying six consecutive losing seasons on its shoulders, I think 6 wins and a postseason appearance would be a very favorable result, but it’s hard to trust them to chalk up 7 wins in Year 1 of the new staff, so I’m taking the Under 6.5 wins, despite the fact I like the overall trajectory of the program going forward.
