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(All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
One of the longest standing bowl games out there, the Peach Bowl has been a staple in college football since 1968.
Despite its well-documented place in bowl history, this Thursday will mark the first time that either Pittsburgh or Michigan State has appeared in a bowl game, and just the eighth time that a Big Ten team has played in the game.
For Pittsburgh, they will look to pull off back-to-back bowl game wins after winning their last bowl game appearance in 2019 over Eastern Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl. The Panthers have struggled in bowl games as of late, going just 1-4 in its last five bowl games since 2014.
Michigan State on the other hand will also be in search of it’s second-straight bowl win, but has enjoyed a more recent string of bowl success, going 2-2 in its last four games, but posting four straight bowl wins from 2012 to 2015.
For a game that brought a lot of excitement when it was first announced, a few key opt outs have dulled the shine on this year’s Peach Bowl, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have a game to breakdown. Here’s a look at this week’s matchup between two 2021 power houses.
What: Peach Bowl
Who: Michigan State (10-2, 7-2 Big Ten) vs. Pittsburgh (11-2, 7-1 ACC)
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
When: Thursday, December 30th, 7:00 PM EST (ESPN)
Opening line: Michigan State -1 (O/U 60.5)
Current line: Michigan State -2.5 (O/U 56)
Most recent bowl result: Michigan State defeated Wake Forest 27-21 in the 2019 Pinstripe Bowl. Pittsburgh defeated Eastern Michigan 34-30 in the 2019 Quick Lane Bowl.
Michigan State at a glance: When this game was first announced it looked as if it was shaping up to be one of the better bowls of the season. Michigan State star running back Kenneth Walker was going to get one more chance to run with his team against a stout Pitt defense. And Pittsburgh quarterback/Heisman Trophy Finalist Kenny Pickett was ready to torch a Michigan State pass defense that had allowed the most passing yards per game in the regular season (338.0).
Now, both Walker and Pickett have opted out of the Peach Bowl to prepare for the 2022 NFL Draft, and we are left with two backups to fill previously star studded positions.
With Walker officially opting out, Sparty is down a player who accounted for 264 carries for 1,646 yards and 18 rushing touchdowns, and another 13 receptions for 89 yards and a score. Backup running back Jordon Simmons looks to replace Walker, as Simmons has rushed 54 times for 255 yards and caught six passes for 24 yards and one touchdown on the season.
It’s easy to remember everything Walker contributed to Michigan State this season. But his absence in this bowl game may force the Spartans to lean more on their passing game, led by quarterback Payton Thorne and his trio of explosive wide receivers.
Michigan State’s offense has proven to be more than capable of pulling off the big plays. They ranked 13th in the nation in explosive play rate at 15.0%, and are sixth in passing marginal explosiveness on the year. This season, Thorne threw for 2,886 yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions, with wide receiver Jayden Reed leading the team with 53 receptions for 946 yards and eight touchdowns.
Reed, along with wide receivers Jalen Nailor and Tre Mosley have averaged 15.7 yards per reception or more on the season, with “Speedy” Nailor topping out at 18.9 yards per reception.
Pittsburgh, for all of it’s defensive acumen (44th in defensive success rate, 39.8%), has proven to be most susceptible against the pass, but they still rank 64th in defensive passing success rate (41.0%).
Pittsburgh at a glance: As previously mentioned, Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett has opted out of the Peach Bowl to prepare for the 2022 NFL Draft, which creates quite the dicey situation for the Panthers offensively. Offensive coordinator Mark Whipple also resigned following the ACC Championship game, and will not coach the team in this one, as he has already been named the offensive coordinator at Nebraska.
And in addition to this, it was also announced that wide receiver Taysir Mack would be opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Mack was third on the Panthers in receiving yards (431) and caught 27 passes on the season to go with three touchdowns.
*Note* If any of this is news to you, head on over to our College Football Bowl Tracker: Player Opt-Outs, Coaching Changes article for more info on the latest personnel changes.
In light of Pickett opting out, it appears that Pitt will be starting redshirt junior quarterback Nick Patti who has just 62 career pass attempts in three seasons, having thrown for 458 career yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Patti’s best game came in his freshman year, when he faced FCS Delaware and threw for 271 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in a game Pitt won 17-14.
Fortunately for Patti, and Pitt, they should have wide receiver Jordan Addison active for this one, who is coming off a season in which he was recognized as the nation’s top wide receiver after receiving the 2021 Biletnikoff Award.
Addison put up video game numbers in 2021, totaling 93 receptions for 1,479 yards and 17 touchdowns, which was a massive improvement off his 60-666-4 line from 2020. But the question remains whether or not a former three-star recruit with 62 career pass attempts can make enough of a dent in a porous Michigan State defense to give Pitt a legitimate shot at winning this one.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Pitt lean a bit more on its running backs in this matchup given Patti’s inexperience, as the Panthers’ rush attack ranked 28th in rushing success rate (48.6%) despite rushing on only 49.3% of their offensive plays on standard downs (118th).
Pitt running backs Vincent Davis and Israel Abanikanda have both averaged over 4.0 yards per carry, with Abanikanda averaging 5.4 yards per carry while rushing 118 times for 635 yards and seven touchdowns. Both Davis and Abanikanda have gone for 20+ receptions on the season, combining for 44 receptions for 306 yards and one touchdown.
Defensively, Pitt has been one of the best units in the nation, ranking 44th in defensive success rate (39.8%) and ninth in three-and-out percentage (40.3%). They have also excelled at creating pressure, ranking 13th in blitz down success rate (22.5%) and third in overall sack rate (10.8%).
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Key to the matchup: It’s always difficult to trust a team that’s sending its backup quarterback into battle. When that backup quarterback has averaged just over 20 passes per season over the last three years, trusting that team/quarterback becomes even more difficult, as is the case with Pitt and Nick Patti. For Pitt, the key to them winning this game will likely come down to whether or not Patti is able to keep the Panthers on the field long enough to drive down and score points. Michigan State will need to learn to live without Kenneth Walker in this one, but having a familiar face at quarterback with an explosive trios of wide receivers should be enough for the Spartans to function offensively.
Best Bet: To put it simply, I truly have a difficult time picking teams with inexperienced backup quarterbacks. Going from Kenny Pickett to former three-star quarterback Nick Patti with 62 career pass attempts is a far cry from Oklahoma switching from Spencer Rattler to Caleb Williams. While I don’t love Kenneth Walker being out for Michigan State, the fact that this line moved from Michigan State -1 to Michigan State -2.5 feels borderline disrespectful to Pickett and what he meant to the Panthers in 2021. Or perhaps the books really have no respect for Michigan State’s defense. Either way, I love the Spartans in this spot, as I feel 1.5 points of line movement isn’t enough to account for Pitt’s new quarterback situation.
Pick: Michigan State (-2.5)
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