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We got an even closer look as to where a lot of teams in the SEC really stand after a weekend full of thrillers, upsets and some teams, well, not playing each other nearly as close as anticipated. We’ll continue to get an even refined look at where each team in the conference should rank, as well as just how high the level of dominance is in teams outside the SEC as well.
Here’s a look into five matchups taking place on Saturday, specifically highlighting what to watch from a quarterback perspective as you place your bets ahead of gameday (all odds via PointsBet Sportsbook).
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Arkansas at Ole Miss (-5.5)
Arkansas may be off to one of its best starts that we’ve seen in a very long time, but the Razorbacks are not a tip-top contender in the SEC. Last week’s 37-0 shutout loss to Georgia, which had its backup quarterback in, served as a bit of a sobering reality check in addition to a first loss of the season. Still, there’s no denying this is a strong team that has taken more than just a step forward, and the dominant win says more about Georgia being on a major upswing than Arkansas. The Razorbacks will play a game that will serve as another checkpoint Saturday as they face the Ole Miss Rebels on the road, a team coming off a 42-21 loss to Alabama -- also its first of the season.
The Razorbacks will have quarterback KJ Jefferson at the helm, who didn’t make major mistakes last week against Georgia but was also bottled up as he and the offense were completely ineffective. Jefferson completed 8-of-13 passes for 65 yards on the outing, with eight carries for five rushing yards. The general analysis in short of Jefferson as a player is an up-and-down passer who has good moments, but has had more than his fair share of struggles with accuracy. He’s also a powerful runner, with all of the physical attributes at 6-foot-3 and 245 pounds. Putting a quarterback like this in passing situations and not letting him get going on the ground is the name of the game for opposing defenses.
Looking at Ole Miss, the Rebels have one of the best quarterbacks in the upcoming draft class who has steadily impressed week in and week out. Matt Corral faced the most dominant team in college football in last week’s loss and his numbers weren’t as through the roof as we’ve seen them in the past, but was still more than respectable given the circumstances. Corral completed 21-of-29 passes for 213 yards with one touchdown and zero interceptions, bringing him to a completion percentage of 67.4% for 1,210 yards with 10 touchdowns and zero picks thrown on the season. Between Corral and the rest of what Ole Miss brings to the table, this is the more dominant team and will cover.
Pick: Ole Miss (-5.5)
Vanderbilt at Florida (-39)
It’s another down year for Vanderbilt, as the Commodores sit at 2-3 with their only two wins coming against non-conference opponents who are also greatly struggling this year. Quarterback Ken Seals showed a solid foundation for a legitimate SEC quarterback last year as a freshman but may never be able to fully come into his own with the lack of a solid supporting cast. In his latest appearance, a 30-28 victory over Connecticut, Seals completed 27-of-40 passes for 333 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, bringing him to a completion percentage of 56.4% with 894 passing yards, five touchdowns and five interceptions on the season.
Florida, which comes off a 20-13 upset loss to the Kentucky Wildcats has been, well, one of the weirdest teams to watch this year. Hardly any of us thought the Gators would fall to Kentucky, especially considering that this is a team that came within three points of beating Alabama not at all long ago this season. Despite the quarterback controversy that seemed to exist early on in the season, Florida has stuck with Emory Jones while weaving an athletic and highly impressive Anthony Richardson into the mix from time to time. In the loss to Kentucky, Jones completed 23-of-31 passes for 203 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while Richardson completed his lone passing attempt for eight yards. Jones, also known for what he brings to the table as an athlete, rushed 13 times for 63 yards while Richardson rushed five times for 25 yards.
Despite some of the ups and downs Florida has had, Vanderbilt is greatly outmatched in this one and will be defeated by a large margin. Florida wins and covers.
Pick: Florida (-39)
LSU at Kentucky (-3)
LSU head coach Ed Orgeron isn’t in a great spot from both an on-the-field and off-the-field perspective, and this game could be important as to just how much longer he lasts with LSU. The Tigers lost in atrocious fashion to an Auburn team that has plenty of holes and had narrowly dodged an upset from Georgia State just the week before. The tackling was one of the worst facets of LSU’s game, and the Bayou Bengals’ defense was poor enough to make Bo Nix, who has struggled to turn the corner, like one of the stars of the contest. Despite what he’s had to deal with and the shortcomings of those around him, LSU quarterback Max Johnson has been one of the team’s few consistent bright spots, a quarterback who is steadily making strides as a passer coming into his own and has the ability to do some things on the ground as well. In the 24-19 home loss to Auburn, Johnson completed 26-of-46 passes for 325 yards with one touchdown and one interception. So far this season, he has completed 62.4% of his passes for 1,469 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Kentucky has the former Penn State “Lion” Will Levis taking the snaps this year, and though he’s not been perfect by any means, he’s done far better as a pure passer than a lot of us would have anticipated coming from more of a do-it-all, Taysom Hill-type of a role. In the win over Florida, Levis completed 7-of-17 passes for 87 yards with one touchdown and one interception, also carrying the ball six times for 21 yards.
Looking at the matchup from a broad perspective, LSU can’t run the ball and is relying on its young quarterback to carry the load with an offensive line that has mostly played poorly this season. The defense wasn’t strong enough to stave off Auburn, homefield advantage and all, and as noted above, put on one of its worst performances tackling last weekend. Kentucky is the team on the up as LSU seems to just continue trending downward, and the Wildcats have found a way to win several times even with the odds stacked against them. Kentucky has found a good bit of success in Liam Coen‘s opened-up offense and has a great running back in Chris Rodriguez, who rushed for 99 yards with one touchdown in the victory against the Gators. Kentucky wins and covers on its home turf.
Pick: Kentucky (-3)
Alabama (-18) at Texas A&M
At this point in the season, it’s beginning to look more and more like Texas A&M, which hasn’t won an SEC matchup yet, was more overrated than anything else this off-season. Of course, the Aggies are without quarterback Haynes King, who was expected to be one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC -- but it’s hard to even declare his absence being a major factor in the team’s woes because he never truly had the opportunity to prove himself before he was sidelined with a leg injury. Since King has been gone, Zach Calzada has been called upon to step up and hasn’t really done much of that. Calzada holds the ball too long in several instances, and has put up a string of subpar overall performances -- he completed 12-of-20 passes for 135 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the 26-22 home loss to Mississippi State last week. It’s hard to see a scenario in which he doesn’t absolutely crumble against a tough Alabama defense.
On the other sideline, Alabama is loaded with talent as it seems to be every year, and quarterback Bryce Young has further solidified himself as the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy after a strong performance against an Ole Miss team that some of us thought could potentially give Alabama some problems. Instead, the Rebels got handled in a 42-21 loss on the road. Young continued to look like what we’ve expected to see, completing 20-of-26 passes for 241 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Expect he and the Crimson Tide offense to have a day against an Aggies defense that couldn’t stop much of anything against the Bulldogs and cover while getting the win.
Pick: Alabama (-18)
New Mexico State at Nevada (-31)
The Nevada offense has been described as “dynamic” on more than one occasion this season, complete with a solid receiving corps that includes standout wideout Romeo Doubs, a solid running backs room that saw Toa Taua rush for 124 yards and two touchdowns last week and the best quarterback in the 2022 NFL Draft class in Carson Strong. Strong completed 25-of-38 passes for 263 yards with one touchdown last week as the Wolf Pack played one of the best games of complementary football and took down Boise State on the road for the first time since 1997, 41-31. That’s quite the way to bounce back from the Kansas State loss -- Nevada’s only loss of the season. Needless to say, this team is hot right now.
In football, you’re never to look down on a “lesser opponent.” But looking at the way the season has gone for New Mexico State and what the Aggies look like on paper, it’s hard to view them in any other light.
Pick: Nevada (-31)
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