Oregon (-16) over at Cal - Opened at (-13.5)
Since being eviscerated 49-3 by Georgia in Week 1, Oregon has rattled off six straight victories while scoring at least 41 points in each. Auburn transfer QB Bo Nix has been reborn, raising his completion rate from 60% over the previous two seasons to 72% in addition to boosting his NFL Passer rating from 88.9 in 2021 to 116.1 this year. New Oregon HC Dan Lanning has allowed Nix to use his legs more strategically as well, as the former blue-chip recruit has rolled up 382 rushing yards and 8.0 YPC on 48 carries at Oregon as opposed to his 168 rushing yards on 2.9 YPC for Auburn last year. His mobility has translated to escapability from the rush as well, with Nix taking just one sack through seven games with his incredible 2.3% pressure-to-sack rate ranking as the best mark in the nation. He has led the Ducks to a scintillating 60% success rate which ranks tops in FBS while checking in at second overall in EPA/Play, as the Oregon offense has been both explosive and efficient, while their defense has been less stout than expected allowing 29 PPG thus far. For their part Cal is just 1-4 versus Power Five opponents, dropping their last three games to @Wazzu, @Colorado and Washington by a combined score of 76-42. Though HC Justin Wilcox is respected for his ability to call a D, there isn’t anything that Cal does particularly well, ranking a morose 120th in Net Success Rate (-7.8%) while rating 89th on overall offense and 72nd on defense. I think this line climbs over the 17 key number by gametime, I think Oregon scores too much for Cal to keep up.
Michigan (-22.5) over Michigan State - Opened at (-14.5)
Michigan at Michigan State - O/U 54.5 - Opened at 47.5
Despite returning all four starters from their ghastly 2021 pass defense unit that allowed an FBS-worst 328 passing yards per game last season, While MSU has made small strides in that arena, allowing 269 passing yards per game which is only 110th worst nationally while allowing a sky-high 158.2 QBR to opposing quarterbacks which ranks 9th worst in FBS. Throw in an unsightly 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio and it has basically been a four-alarm fire alarm in The Spartans’ secondary anytime a decent quarterback drops back to pass. Even though they’re a respectable 44th against the run, they’re facing Michigan’s Joe Moore Award winning offensive line which absolutely mauled a much more talented Penn State D line two weeks ago. MSU is coming off a win against Wisconsin where they posted just a 38% win expectancy and lost each of their previous four games convincingly against Washington/Minnesota/Maryland/Ohio State. And best of luck to the 74th ranked Michigan State offense moving the ball against Michigan who is allowing .87 points per drive (Best in FBS), 4.0 yards per play (2nd) and 5.1 yards per pass (8th). I think this line will continue to climb to 24 as the public hops on the obvious disparities between these two programs. Don’t expect Michigan to take their foot off the gas after last year’s second half collapse to the Spartans, which is why we saw that O/U spike from 47.5 up to 54.5. I still like Michigan and think they pour it on but i’m not sure if MSU can score enough, while Michigan plays at the 122nd pace in the country, so I am laying off the Over for now.
Toledo (-7.5) over at Eastern Michigan - Opened at (-11)
As someone who believes that the first week of MACtion should be considered a national holiday, and will support any candidate for political office regardless of party affiliation in order to achieve this goal, Buffalo’s upset over Toledo last week is what Group of Five football is all about. Toledo was cruising to a 27-10 lead when a flurry of turnovers shell-shocked the Rockets and helped Buffalo put up 24 unanswered points in the fourth quarter for the miraculous 34-27 victory. Despite the late collapse, Toledo still had a win expectancy of 57% which speaks to how well they were in control of the game up until that point despite an absurd six turnovers. For perspective, Toledo had turned the ball over just nine times in their previous seven games entering the contest, so to say this was an anomaly is an understatement. Toledo had lost just one game coming into the contest to Ohio State and had just swept their way through CMU, NIU and Kent State in their first three MAC conference games. For their part Eastern Michigan is 5-3 (2-2 in MAC) and had a historic victory over Arizona State that literally sent ASU HC Herm Edwards packing. Since then they are 3-2 but lost QB Taylor Powell in a 49-10 laugher against NIU and just survived a 20-16 contest against Ball State where they needed a lucky fourth quarter interception to setup fill-in starting QB Austin Smith‘s two-yard touchdown run for the go ahead score. The line movement indicates the sharps are betting on Powell being back this week, and they had better hope so because Toledo isn’t turning the ball over six times again and their 33rd ranked pass defense is going to wear out dual-threat QB Austin Smith. I see this point drop as a case of recency bias, with Toledo chomping at the bit to get back on track after their fluke loss last week to Buffalo. I don’t care if Powell is playing or not, with EMU’s defense allowing 2.85 points per drive (105th) with a 46% success rate (96th) it’s hard to imagine them stopping Toledo’s vaunted rush attack that averages 194 yards per game on 4.8 YPC. I see Toledo rolling big in Ypsilanti.
TCU at West Virginia - O/U 69.5 - Opened at 63.5
It feels counterintuitive for an air-raid practitioner like WVU HC Neal Brown to run the ball so proficiently, but the undeniable strength of this Mountaineers team is their 36th ranked rush attack. They’re expected to get a boost from their freshman sensation CJ Donaldson who missed two games and was unable to get going, along with the rest of the offense, in Lubbock against Texas Tech on Saturday rushing 12 times for 33 yards while losing a fumble. Before going down after just four carries against Texas on October 1, Donaldson had three 100+-yard games in his first four contests and was leading the nation with 6 touchdowns through three weeks. The Mountaineers’ defense have given up at least 31 points to five of their six Power Five opponents, with the lone exception being a punchless Virginia Tech. WVU’s D has been exceptionally terrible the last three games though, allowing 48, 43 and 38 points. TCU HC Sonny Dykes isn’t worried about defense as much as pressuring opponents with an avalanche of scores, posting at least 38 points in all seven games this season! The fortunate part of their mission statement for this wager’s purposes is that TCU fields the 94th ranked pass defense which has given up 158 points over their last five games. That opening 63.5 line was so bad that TCU had gone over that mark in every single game this season, except for week 1 against a barely functional Colorado team that couldn’t score. Accordingly savvy bettors hammered it to it’s current 69.5 where TCU has gone Over that number in three of their last five games, though one of the Unders was against Kansas State who lost their starting QB in Q2 and play at the 92nd slowest pace nationally. With both teams fielding legitimately terrible pass defenses and West Virginia rating 39th in pace of play while throwing 39 passes per game (19th in FBS), i’m tossing a sprinkle on the Over 69.5.
UCF (pick) over vs. Cincinnati - Opened at UCF (-3.5)
This game has really set the different books apart this week, as Draft Kings opened this at UCF -3.5 as a Saturday Morning Special deal that reopened at -2.5 on Sunday AM, and then got beat down to the -1 we’re seeing everywhere now. Caesar’s has it at -1 Cincinnati, but they’re on an island, everywhere else is at -1 UCF and each book is uniform in offering at best -106 either way on the money line. Cincinnati has run the table since their opening week loss to SEC West dweller Arkansas, but only beat USF by four and SMU by two points over their last two contests, walking tightropes by committing 14 penalties for 127 yards and getting into trouble by kicking five field goals against SMU due to some key drops, leaving the door open for SMU to potentially steal one from the Bearcats. Also of note is UC having won 18 consecutive games against AAC opponents, though they are facing UCF in the Bounce House which is also a dire proposition. However the high-flying UCF offense that was riding a four-game win streak over FAU/GT/SMU/Temple just got taken behind the woodshed by ECU 34-13, as Kent State transfer outside WR Isaiah Winstead lit up the overmatched UCF secondary in 1-on-1 situations. The absence of their top outside WR threat Tyler Scott, who is averaging a team-high 2.86 yards per route average, has shortened the field on this offense, with fellow wideouts Nick Mardner and Tre Tucker struggling when called upon to make plays, dropping two passes each last week. I’m holding until it’s clear whether or not Scott will be back from his ankle injury, he was seen in a walking boot which is not a good sign. If he’s out, i’m out on Cincinnati.