We were oh so close in cashing Scottie Scheffler as an outright last week at Mayakoba. The former World No 1 decided to go back to his old putter on the weekend, and he instantly bettered his putting. I was fortunate enough to make a massive five-leg parlay that contained the eventual winner, Russell Henley. I always talk about using parlays to build value in the outright markets. You assume more risk, but for me, I found four legs I researched and loved and got his odds at fair market value for limited exposure.
For this week’s Houston Open, I will most likely take the same approach with Scheffler and Aaron Wise. Scheffler is the clear-cut and deserving favorite, but I don’t want any part of the +600 odds associated with him. I’ll likely look to parlay him with a few soccer lines and NFL anytime goal scorers. As always, I will post them on my Twitter throughout the week.
Memorial Park Golf Course is a long 7,412-yard par 70 that puts a premium on driving accuracy and gives a massive advantage to those who show up and putt well. This par-70 Bermuda grass course has received course comps similar to Bay Hill, the host course for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I am still finalizing my betting card. However, a few long shots have caught my attention.
Sepp Straka to win +10000 0.10 units
Moving forward, if I can get Straka at near 100/1, I am backing him. After his first win at Honda, he struggled. He was close to setting the record for most missed cuts then he found himself in contention in a few tournaments following. He missed the cut at Mayakoba, but that doesn’t bother me. He’s a great course fit this week. At Memorial Park, you want a guy who is accurate off the tee and a great putter. Length helps a ton too. Straka has an outstanding 63% driving accuracy and is a great putter.
Straka is 10th in my model, gaining most of his boost from his great work off the tee and his skill on the putting surface. Bay Hill was a course that I liked as a comp. Straka has played well there. There is some concern with Straka, but outside of a missed cut last year, his T4 and T5 finishes in 2020 and 2021 show some value in betting on him.
Davis Riley to win +5000 0.25 units
Betting Riley is frustrating. I often struggle with betting him around +2500. This week we are fortunate to have him at +5000. There are no issues with me sprinkling him to win at this price. Riley hits a ton of fairways and is decently long off the tee. He hits a lot of GIR and still is very skilled with his putter. He’s a better putter on Bermuda than bent and Poa. He’s had a few tournaments where he’s had three very impressive rounds, but one where he’s stuck in neutral and can’t get anything going. He’s still seeking his first career win, but he had six top-10 finishes last season. His breakthrough will happen soon, and I’m hoping it’s on a +5000 ticket.
Will Gordon to win +7000 0.25un
Gordon was listed in both when looking at the Datagolf.com, and RickRunGood.com course profile fit graphs. Top five on DataGolf and first on RickRunGood. With two of the premium data services recognizing Gordon’s skillset as one that correlates to success here, I had to dig deeper. Gordon is 50th on my model, and much of his low ranking comes from his poor putting over his last 24 rounds. However, he has gained strokes each round over his last five tournaments. Positive putting regression seems likely if it hasn’t started already. He is a great combination of distance and accuracy and his T3 finish last week gives me more confidence to follow the course comparison tools from both services.
