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Wednesday is always a great day to bet on baseball. Games start early in the afternoon (or the morning, on the west coast!) and run all day long. I’ve got two looks on today’s slate and I’ll get to them now.
Boston Red Sox (+125) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-145) Total: 9
Dare I say Michael Wacha has been...okay? He’s allowed just three earned runs through three starts, two of which came against the Twins and Rays — otherwise known as good offenses. Wacha has indeed walked seven hitters in that span which certainly doesn’t bode well for his long-term success, but it’s worth noting in this specific matchup his erratic nature may actually do him well.
Toronto ranks just 28th in walk rate this season and has been eager to swing. This doesn’t project to be a start where Wacha has to face patient hitters and get done in by one big knockout blow. Speaking of which, his hard-hit rate has been a sparkling 32.4% to this point, a real change of pace from the last two years.
It also has to be said that Ross Stripling has been downright terrible this season. He has a microscopic 12% strikeout rate and an expected ERA comfortably over four runs for a third straight season. Boston has been so-so at the plate, but the pitching matchup tilts this one to Boston for my money. This is a great value.
Edge: Red Sox +125
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Houston Astros (-121) vs. Texas Rangers (+100) Total: 8.5
Is Glenn Otto good? I mean, I didn’t even know who he was a week ago, but after watching him spin five innings of one-run ball against the A’s I’m starting to believe he might be.
The former Yankees farmhand was bad in six starts last season in his first taste of big-league baseball, but it’s possible that the sample was simply too small to judge him on. After all, he owns a 2.92 ERA across all minor league levels and registered a 2.65 ERA at Triple-A. In his minor-league career, he owns a solid 11.9 strikeouts per nine.
Otto has been a pretty good pitcher for his whole life and his entire career up until 20-30 innings at the major-league level, so I’m ready to give him a shot. I definitely love the matchup on Wednesday against an Astros team ranked 23rd in runs per game and struggling to get men on base.
While Houston should struggle, I think Texas’ fall back to Earth will stick — at least for Wednesday. That’s because Cristian Javier is pitching, who was one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game a year ago and a talented arm which has racked up strikeouts over 8 1/3 scoreless innings in the bullpen this year. In his re-debut in the rotation, I expect big things.
Edge: Under 8.5
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