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We’ve got a tasty slate of baseball to bet on Wednesday and I’ve picked out two late games which I’m seeing plenty of value in. Let’s get to them.
Baltimore Orioles (+150) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-175) Total: 8
Bet Baltimore as an underdog, rinse and repeat. If you took the Orioles on the moneyline every time they were an underdog this season, you’d be up 20.57 units. That’s right — a $100 bettor is up over two bands.
In fact, there are only four teams which have a better record than Baltimore’s 53-56 record as a dog, and the Yankees don’t even really count considering they’ve only been underdogs in nine games.
Jordan Lyles actually looked pretty good against the White Sox with just a run against him in seven innings, and his ERA in the month of August is now resting comfortably at 3.95. The Guardians rank 25th in wRC+ in the last two weeks, so I’m not overly concerned about a blowup here from Lyles. I’m much more fixated on a team hitting the ball well which has consistenly come through as a dog.
Edge: Orioles +150
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Los Angeles Dodgers (+140) vs. New York Mets (-165) Total: 6.5
It’s never fun fading Jacob deGrom, but this has to be one of the best spots to do it. Not only is this a Dodgers team with perhaps the most talent in baseball right now, it’s one which historically has touched up deGrom for his eighth-worst career ERA.
Aside from that split, there are plenty of reasons to like L.A. here with Tyler Anderson starting the game. The Mets are 16th in wRC+ to lefties and have the 18th-ranked home run to fly ball ratio in the game. Anderson is incredible at pitching to contact — primarily fly balls — and should enjoy life here against New York.
The Mets’ bullpen ERA also sits at 4.09 in the second half which is not very good. That’s troubling because Jacob deGrom has gone into the seven inning just once since his return, meaning the Dodgers should have a great shot in the event they go down here.
Edge: Dodgers +140
