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Welcome to Thursday. We’ve got baseball on in the afternoon, we’ve got baseball on in the evening, and we’ve got baseball on late at night. Without further ado, let’s get into how to bet this exciting slate of games.
Houston Astros (+110) vs. New York Yankees (-131) Total: 7.5
Yes, Justin Verlander has been pitching like it’s 2018. He’s gone 8-3 with a 2.30 over 13 starts and has registered a very low .245 wOBA.
With that being said, there are a few numbers that jump out at me that might be of concern on Friday. First of all is Verlander’s 3.10 xERA, which is a result of his .367 xwOBA on contact. Couple that with a very low 25.5 strikeout rate for his standards and I think there is a little wiggle room here for the Yankees.
New York has been undone by strikeouts, but has been excellent when it has gotten the bat on the ball with a league-best barrel rate near 8%. They should be able to scratch across enough runs here to support Luis Severino, who has an expected ERA in the top 10% of the league with a ridiculous 29.9% strikeout rate.
Friday night is Severino’s time to assert himself as the better pitcher in this game.
Edge: Yankees -131
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-136) vs. Atlanta Braves (+115) Total: 9
I think at this point we can safely say that Ian Anderson is not the juggernaut we thought he would be when he debuted to much acclaim in 2020. He’s absolutely got the potential to be an above-average arm, and at worst he’s an effective middle-of-the-rotation guy.
With that said, Anderson and his dastardly 40.4% hard-hit rate, coupled with a 10.7% walk rate, are minced meat against a Dodgers team which remains in the top 10 in wRC+ over the last two weeks. While Atlanta has been arguably hotter, and is a spectacular team against lefties, it will have to compete here with Julio Urías, who is back in his groove.
Urias has now allowed just three earned runs in his last three outings and maintains one of the best hard-hit rates in the league at 26.6%. Atlanta relies heavily on barrels without a ton of consistency in that department I see this one as a hard game for the Braves to win.
Edge: Dodgers -136
